Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 100712
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN AZ...SRN
NM...FAR SWRN TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ...SRN NM...SWRN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES...WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD INCLEMENT WEATHER
TO MUCH OF THE PLAINS EWD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS.
ALTHOUGH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THIS...MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST
WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY...WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF SERN AZ/SRN NM/SWRN TX.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR SERN AZ...SRN NM...FAR
SWRN TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
A VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED SURFACE LOW WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL STATES ON THURSDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD...STRONG POST
FRONTAL WLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.
ADIABATIC WARMING/DRYING IN WLY FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE TEENS. STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW STRONGER JET WINDS AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE SUSTAINED
SPEEDS CLOSER TO 40 TO 50 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ...SRN NM...SWRN TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY 2 OUTLINE HAVE BEEN MADE
DUE TO TUESDAYS CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT...AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE CRITICAL. ALTHOUGH SOME DEGREE OF PRECIPITATION WAS RECEIVED
IN THE MOUNTAINS...MPE PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS SHOWS IN GENERAL LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE STILL DRY...AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS...EXPECTED LOW HUMIDITIES...AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS...CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE LIKELY.
...EXTREME SRN NV...SRN CA/AZ BORDER...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD...STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN JET AXIS AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY OVER
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE NV/CA/AZ BORDERS. CHANNELING OF THESE
WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY MAY ALLOW FOR HIGHER SPEEDS
AND STRONGER GUSTS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO
SINGLE DIGITS WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S CAN
BE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. SURFACE OBS FROM YESTERDAY SHOW
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH...AND GIVEN EXPECTATION OF A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN WINDS AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EWD...WILL LEAVE AREA AS
A SEE TEXT...ALTHOUGH VERY LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
..HURLBUT.. 04/10/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 100827
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS...WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WIDESPREAD INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
BEHIND THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO MUCH OF THE WEST...WITH
A NWLY TO NLY FLOW AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WRN CONUS FOLLOWING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE SWRN STATES.
...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
NLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN NV AND THE CA/AZ BORDERS...WITH
CHANNELING THROUGH THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY GIVING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS.
GIVEN THE EXPECTATION THAT THE MAIN UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL HAVE
MOVED WELL EWD...POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OF STRONGER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
BE REDUCED.
...SRN AZ/NM...
A NARROW WINDOW OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS AZ/NM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF NEAR 20 MPH MAY
BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES EWD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING HIGH
PRESSURE REGION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE A
RELAXATION IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS...AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SWD. STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EWD AS WELL...REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.
...SSWRN TX...
MODEL FORECASTS ARE STILL NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE WIND FORECAST AS
WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHWEST...AND A RELATIVELY LAX PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SRN TX.
DESPITE THIS...A NLY TO NELY DRY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S...AND POSSIBLY LOWER 90S...WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS AN AREA THAT HAS BEEN
CRITICALLY DRY FOR AN EXTENDED TIME FRAME. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK
WINDS...AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL EXIST.
..HURLBUT.. 04/10/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...