Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 140809
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 AM CDT MON APR 14 2008
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SRN GREAT BASIN...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A PORTION OF THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF FL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST/GREAT
   BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...TWO AREAS OF SFC LOW
   PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN...ONE OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND THE OTHER
   OVER NRN MT/SRN ALBERTA. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED
   WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE SFC WINDS OVER
   THE GREAT BASIN AND THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. WHERE MIN RH READINGS
   AND FUELS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DRY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST...IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
   MODERATE WLY WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RH READINGS WILL PRODUCE
   ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NRN FL...WITH
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO SRN FL.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN GREAT BASIN...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SSWLY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35
   MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 8-12 PERCENT
   
   AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
   INTENSIFY OVER NRN NV/SRN ID. ALTHOUGH MODERATE SWLY WINDS ARE
   EXPECTED OVER MOST OF NRN NV AND WRN UT...FUELS IN THESE AREAS ARE
   NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY DRY FOR ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONCERNS. HOWEVER...OVER SRN PORTIONS OF NV...NWRN AZ AND SWRN
   UT...SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES/LOW RH READINGS WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT AFTER 18Z. ALTHOUGH MIN RH READINGS WILL RECOVER OVER
   PORTIONS OF SRN NV AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THIS AREA AFTER
   15/06Z...MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE POOR RH RECOVERY
   OVERNIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN GUSTY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED S-SWLY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
   UP TO 35 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT
   
   A DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN ALBERTA/FAR NRN MT AND
   RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
   CREATE A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY. SLY
   WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS
   A RESULT. FURTHER WEST OVER ERN/NRN MT INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT
   AND STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS
   FROM 20-25 MPH. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S /AROUND
   20 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL/ AND SEASONABLY LOW DEWPTS IN THE 20S/30S WILL
   LEAD TO MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT IN ERN/NRN MT TO AROUND 25
   PERCENT IN NWRN SD/CENTRAL ND. COMBINED WITH ANTECEDENT DRY
   CONDITIONS A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TODAY. FURTHER
   EAST OVER ERN ND/ERN SD AND NEB...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
   THE 60S WILL KEEP MIN RH READINGS ABOVE 25 PERCENT PRECLUDING A
   CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF FL...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED W-NWLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH...MIN RH
   READINGS FROM 25-35 PERCENT
   
   ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SERN
   STATES...MODERATE MID LEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH A MODEST NW-SE
   ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF MODERATE
   W-NWLY WINDS OVER NRN FL. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...MODERATE
   NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SWD INTO SRN FL TODAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
   WILL BE BELOW NORMAL /UPPER 60S TO MID 70S/ LOW DEWPTS IN 30S/40S
   WILL SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS FROM 25-35 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET AS
   WINDS DIMINISH.
   
   ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   A DEEPENING SFC LEE TROUGH /OWING TO THE STRENGTHENING OF MID LEVEL
   WINDS/ WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SLY SFC WINDS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
   DURATION OF CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE REGION /AROUND 20 MPH/
   IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO NOT MORE THAN 1-2 HRS THIS AFTERNOON.
   WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND LOW DEWPTS IN THE 10S/20S WILL
   PRODUCE MIN RH READINGS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT AND HIGH FIRE DANGER.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/14/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 140813
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0313 AM CDT MON APR 14 2008
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHWEST...SRN AND CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF FL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO
   THE ROCKIES BY TOMORROW NIGHT. AS A RESULT...STRONG MID LEVEL WIND
   FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PLAINS REGION.
   ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH READINGS COMBINED WITH MODERATE
   TO STRONG SFC WINDS WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER
   THIS REGION. STRONG SLY WINDS WILL BE COMMONPLACE OVER THE REMAINDER
   OF THE PLAINS STATES OWING TO A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC
   HIGH OVER THE MS VALLEY AND THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
   FURTHER EAST...AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ERN
   SEABOARD...MODERATE NWLY WINDS AND LOW RH READINGS WILL AGAIN LEAD
   TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF FL. A WARMING TREND
   WILL RESULT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES
   INT0 THIS REGION.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - THE SOUTHWEST...SRN AND CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED W-SWLY WINDS FROM 25-35 MPH WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS...MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-15 PERCENT
   
   AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AT THE
   START OF THE PERIOD...WLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER A LARGE PORTION
   OF THE SOUTHWEST/ROCKIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE 60S-70S
   IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS /6-8 KFT/ TO THE 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS /BELOW
   3000 FT/ WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONABLY LOW DWPTS TO SUPPORT MIN RH
   READINGS FROM 5-15 PERCENT. WHERE FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
   SUFFICIENTLY DRY /AZ...NM...SRN UT...SRN NV...SERN CA AND THE
   CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS/ A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST
   FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THERE DOES APPEAR SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
   PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/WRN NM WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS/LOWEST RH
   READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CO-EXIST...UNCERTAINTY IN THE DRYNESS OF
   THE FUELS IN THIS REGION WILL PRECLUDE AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL OUTLOOK
   AREA. THE WRN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA IS ROUGHLY WHERE THE COLD
   FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIST BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE ERN EXTENT OF THE
   CRITICAL AREA IS WHERE A DEVELOPING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST BY
   MID-AFTERNOON /FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN NWD INTO
   SWRN NEB/.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MOST OF FL...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED N-NWLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH...MIN RH
   READINGS FROM 25-35 PERCENT
   
   IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE...A RENEWED SURGE OF COOLER
   AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SERN STATES. AS A
   RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE N-NELY DIRECTION AND REMAIN
   MODERATE OVER FL TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW
   NORMAL...MIN RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR
   AT LEAST 3-4 HRS DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
   OVER 15 MPH...A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA IS DELINEATED FOR MOST OF THE
   PENINSULA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
   COAST...WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A SUFFICIENT ONSHORE
   COMPONENT TO SUPPORT HIGHER RH READINGS.
   
   ...GA/SC AND AL...
   IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A N-NELY
   DIRECTION. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
   60S WILL PRODUCE MIN RH READINGS FROM 30-35 PERCENT. THE COMBINATION
   OF RECENT RAINS AND MARGINAL SUSTAINED WINDS /10-15 MPH/ WILL
   PRECLUDE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ...LOWER PLAINS /WRN OK NWD INTO CENTRAL SD....
   TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...SLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35
   MPH AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND A MODERATE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT.
   HOWEVER UNLIKE THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN
   SHOULD OFFSET WARMING TEMPERATURES AND KEEP MIN RH READINGS ABOVE 30
   PERCENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR AN UPGRADE IN TOMORROW/S DAY ONE OUTLOOK IF GREATER
   MIXING/LOWER RH READINGS ARE EVIDENT ON LATER MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES...
   SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION TOMORROW /15-25 MPH/ IN
   RESPONSE TO AN INTENSIFYING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW
   PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
   THE PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGING AND WAA WILL AID IN ABOVE NORMAL
   AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN IS
   EXPECTED WITH DWPTS REMAINING IN THE 20S/30S. THIS WILL LEAD TO MIN
   RH READINGS FROM 25-35 PERCENT. DESPITE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS AND
   DORMANT VEGETATION...RECENT PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION IS
   EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/14/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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