Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 150728
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2008
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND MUCH OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF FL...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO
THE ROCKIES AND STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
EWD TOWARDS THE PLAINS...A LEE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL
DEVELOP SWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
STRENGTHENING SLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL RESULT FROM A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE APPALACHIANS. FURTHER EAST...AS
AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES OFF THE E COAST...CREATING A SEASONABLY
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF
FL.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - THE SOUTHWEST AND MUCH OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...LONG TERM
DROUGHT/DRYNESS
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...MODERATE TO VERY STRONG SUSTAINED
SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST/ROCKIES/PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE
WITH ANTECEDENT LOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MIN RH
READINGS FROM 5-15 PERCENT IN THE SW AND ROCKIES REGIONS TO NEAR 15
PERCENT IN THE HIGH PLAINS. MOST NOTABLY...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
APPROACH 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AZ...SRN
UT...AND EXTREME SW CO WITH LOWER SUSTAINED SPEEDS OUTSIDE THIS
AREA. ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
IN THIS REGION DUE TO THE JUXTAPOSITION OF VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW
RH...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NATURE OF THE FUELS WILL PRECLUDE AN
EXTREMELY CRITICAL DELINEATION ATTM. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE WNWLY TO NLY COMPONENT.
IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THE WRN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA IS
ROUGHLY WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIST BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THE ERN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA IS WHERE A DEVELOPING
DRYLINE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXIST BY
MID-AFTERNOON /FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN NWD INTO
SWRN SD/.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF FL...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH
A NWLY FLOW ALOFT PATTERN WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF FL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRONGLY INFLUENCE SERN U.S. WEATHER ON TUESDAY. MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT MODERATE N-NELY WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH
WILL OCCUR. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE...MIN RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOB 35 PERCENT FOR A
FEW HRS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE IMMEDIATE E COAST OF FL SHOULD
HAVE MARGINALLY HIGHER RH READINGS DUE TO A SLIGHT ONSHORE WIND
COMPONENT. AS A RESULT...WILL REFRAIN FROM OUTLINING THIS AREA.
SOMEWHAT LOW KBDI VALUES /100 - 300/ AND RELATIVELY HIGHER 100 HR
FUEL MOISTURES /NEAR 15 PERCENT/ ARE DUE PRIMARILY TO
WIDESPREAD...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL. THIS
SHOULD PERHAPS TEND TO LESSEN THE OVERALL CRITICAL NATURE OF THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...RECENT DRYNESS WITHIN THE PAST WEEK
AND LOW RH COUPLED WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT APPEAR TO SUPPORT
CRITICAL CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
...GA/SC AND AL...
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A N-NELY
DIRECTION. RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY YIELD MARGINAL RH
VALUES IN THE 30S. ADDITIONALLY...RECENT RAINFALL AND MARGINAL
SUSTAINED WINDS /10-15 MPH/ WILL SHOULD ACT TO TEMPER CONDITIONS
FROM BEING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...LOWER PLAINS /WRN OK NWD INTO CENTRAL SD....
ERN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CRITICAL AREA OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...SLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH.
HOWEVER...MORE SLY TRAJECTORIES E OF THE DRYLINE/SURFACE PRESSURE
TROUGH APPEAR TO SUPPORT HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES FROM
AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE.
..SMITH.. 04/15/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 150856
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2008
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN TWO THIRDS OF NM...SRN HIGH
PLAINS...SE AZ...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...SRN NV...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND S CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR NEAR THE OK
PANHANDLE WITH A DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE
AND WRN/SWRN TX. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A ZONE OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY.
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST ACROSS PARTS
OF THE FL PENINSULA.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN TWO THIRDS OF NM...SRN HIGH
PLAINS...SE AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
DRY SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL EXIST AGAIN OVER MUCH OF
NM...SERN AZ AND WRN TX. VERY DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ALREADY BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S
DURING THE AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS ACROSS THE REGION. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES SUGGEST A STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THESE WILL IN TURN WILL SUPPORT THE MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ARE SUGGESTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SEWD ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NWLY-NLY DIRECTION. A
DEPICTION OF A LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA MAY BE WARRANTED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...SRN NV...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH...STRONG WINDS...LONG TERM DRYNESS
AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NE OF THE
REGION...STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. MAIN
UNCERTAINTY ATTM...IS CENTERED ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WINDS ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE. SOME MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY AIR MAY NOT MIX TO THE SURFACE. IF THIS
OCCURS...WINDS MAY NOT REACH SUSTAINED WIND CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN
DESERTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MIN RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS.
...FL PENINSULA...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. BORDERLINE RH
CRITERIA WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTS SLACKENING NELY SURFACE WINDS /AOB 15 MPH/ ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND ADJACENT AREAS. WITH MORE OF A NELY ONSHORE
COMPONENT...RH WILL LIKELY TREND TOWARDS SUB-CRITICAL VALUES.
ATTM...THE COMBINATION OF CRITICAL SUSTAINED WINDS AND MIN RH VALUES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COEXIST FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY.
..SMITH.. 04/15/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...