Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150728
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2008
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND MUCH OF THE HIGH
   PLAINS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF FL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO
   THE ROCKIES AND STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. 
   A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
   BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
   EWD TOWARDS THE PLAINS...A LEE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL
   DEVELOP SWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. 
   STRENGTHENING SLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL RESULT FROM A
   STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
   AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE APPALACHIANS.  FURTHER EAST...AS
   AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES OFF THE E COAST...CREATING A SEASONABLY
   FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF
   FL.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - THE SOUTHWEST AND MUCH OF THE HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...LONG TERM
   DROUGHT/DRYNESS
   
   AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...MODERATE TO VERY STRONG SUSTAINED
   SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
   SOUTHWEST/ROCKIES/PLAINS.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE
   WITH ANTECEDENT LOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MIN RH
   READINGS FROM 5-15 PERCENT IN THE SW AND ROCKIES REGIONS TO NEAR 15
   PERCENT IN THE HIGH PLAINS.  MOST NOTABLY...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
   APPROACH 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AZ...SRN
   UT...AND EXTREME SW CO WITH LOWER SUSTAINED SPEEDS OUTSIDE THIS
   AREA.  ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
   IN THIS REGION DUE TO THE JUXTAPOSITION OF VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW
   RH...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NATURE OF THE FUELS WILL PRECLUDE AN
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL DELINEATION ATTM.  AS THE COLD FRONT
   PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE WNWLY TO NLY COMPONENT.  
   
   IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THE WRN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA IS
   ROUGHLY WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIST BY MID-AFTERNOON. 
   THE ERN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA IS WHERE A DEVELOPING
   DRYLINE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXIST BY
   MID-AFTERNOON /FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN NWD INTO
   SWRN SD/.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF FL...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH
   
   A NWLY FLOW ALOFT PATTERN WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF FL.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
   STRONGLY INFLUENCE SERN U.S. WEATHER ON TUESDAY.  MODEL OUTPUT
   CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT MODERATE N-NELY WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH
   WILL OCCUR.  ALTHOUGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
   AVERAGE...MIN RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOB 35 PERCENT FOR A
   FEW HRS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THE IMMEDIATE E COAST OF FL SHOULD
   HAVE MARGINALLY HIGHER RH READINGS DUE TO A SLIGHT ONSHORE WIND
   COMPONENT.  AS A RESULT...WILL REFRAIN FROM OUTLINING THIS AREA.
   
   SOMEWHAT LOW KBDI VALUES /100 - 300/ AND RELATIVELY HIGHER 100 HR
   FUEL MOISTURES /NEAR 15 PERCENT/ ARE DUE PRIMARILY TO
   WIDESPREAD...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL.  THIS
   SHOULD PERHAPS TEND TO LESSEN THE OVERALL CRITICAL NATURE OF THE
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT.  HOWEVER...RECENT DRYNESS WITHIN THE PAST WEEK
   AND LOW RH COUPLED WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT APPEAR TO SUPPORT
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
   
   ...GA/SC AND AL...
   
   IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A N-NELY
   DIRECTION. RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY YIELD MARGINAL RH
   VALUES IN THE 30S.  ADDITIONALLY...RECENT RAINFALL AND MARGINAL
   SUSTAINED WINDS /10-15 MPH/ WILL SHOULD ACT TO TEMPER CONDITIONS
   FROM BEING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...LOWER PLAINS /WRN OK NWD INTO CENTRAL SD....
   
   ERN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CRITICAL AREA OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...SLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. 
   HOWEVER...MORE SLY TRAJECTORIES E OF THE DRYLINE/SURFACE PRESSURE
   TROUGH APPEAR TO SUPPORT HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES FROM
   AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/15/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150856
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2008
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN TWO THIRDS OF NM...SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...SE AZ...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...SRN NV...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
   TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED
   WITH THIS FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  MODELS ARE IN FAIR
   AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND S CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. 
   MEANWHILE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR NEAR THE OK
   PANHANDLE WITH A DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE
   AND WRN/SWRN TX.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A ZONE OF CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY. 
   MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE FL PENINSULA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN TWO THIRDS OF NM...SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...SE AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
   
   DRY SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL EXIST AGAIN OVER MUCH OF
   NM...SERN AZ AND WRN TX.  VERY DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ALREADY BE IN
   PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S
   DURING THE AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
   TEENS ACROSS THE REGION.  THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY
   SKIES SUGGEST A STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES.  THESE WILL IN TURN WILL SUPPORT THE MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS
   ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.  SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS...ARE SUGGESTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
   SEWD ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NWLY-NLY DIRECTION.  A
   DEPICTION OF A LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA MAY BE WARRANTED IN
   LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...SRN NV...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH...STRONG WINDS...LONG TERM DRYNESS
   
   AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NE OF THE
   REGION...STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.  MAIN
   UNCERTAINTY ATTM...IS CENTERED ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WINDS ABLE TO MIX
   TO THE SURFACE.  SOME MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
   HIGHER VELOCITY AIR MAY NOT MIX TO THE SURFACE.  IF THIS
   OCCURS...WINDS MAY NOT REACH SUSTAINED WIND CRITERIA. 
   NONETHELESS...ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN
   DESERTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MIN RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
   TEENS.
   
   ...FL PENINSULA...
   
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE AS THE
   UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST AT THE START OF THE
   PERIOD...BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.  BORDERLINE RH
   CRITERIA WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MODEL OUTPUT
   SUGGESTS SLACKENING NELY SURFACE WINDS /AOB 15 MPH/ ACROSS THE FL
   PENINSULA AND ADJACENT AREAS.  WITH MORE OF A NELY ONSHORE
   COMPONENT...RH WILL LIKELY TREND TOWARDS SUB-CRITICAL VALUES. 
   ATTM...THE COMBINATION OF CRITICAL SUSTAINED WINDS AND MIN RH VALUES
   ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COEXIST FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/15/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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