Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 160806
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 AM CDT WED APR 16 2008
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NM...TX
SOUTH PLAINS AND PARTS OF SWRN TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NM...ERN AZ...MUCH OF WRN
TX...SW OK...AND SE CO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NC COASTAL PLAIN...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE SW. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND S CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST NM DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE AND WRN/SWRN TX. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST IN THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE...A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SE COAST WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE SE COASTAL REGIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BRINGING WITH IT VERY DRY AIR.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SOUTH CENTRAL NM...TX
SOUTH PLAINS AND PARTS OF SWRN TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS...VERY LOW RH...ANTECEDENT
DROUGHT
LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ACROSS A FOCUSED
CORRIDOR THAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NM AND PERHAPS EXTENDING EWD TOWARDS THE TRANSPECOS AND
SOUTH PLAINS REGIONS. VERY DRY AIR IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION PER AREAWIDE 00Z/16 RAOBS. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S
AND LOWER 90S...RH WILL PLUMMET BETWEEN 3 AND 8 PERCENT. STEEP LOW
TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN THE EASY TRANSPORT OF
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW /55 MPH AT 500 MB/ TO THE SURFACE.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS AROUND 50
MPH.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF NM...ERN AZ...MUCH OF WRN
TX...SW OK...AND SE CO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH
DRY SWLY TO WLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL EXIST AGAIN OVER MUCH OF
NM...SERN AZ AND WRN TX. AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 70S TO
LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE REGION. STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT
THE REGION...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS
THE AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NWLY-NLY DIRECTION. ONE ADDITIONAL
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE HOW FAR WEST THE DRYLINE RETREATS
WESTWARD DURING THE LATE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EAST OF
THE RETREATING DRYLINE /AFFECTING MAINLY THE CAPROCK AND TRANSPECOS
REGIONS/...WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM A SWLY TO MORE OF A SLY OR SSELY
COMPONENT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS...LOW RH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
ATTM...EXPECTING MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 25 - 35 PERCENT TO BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT NELY SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE WEAKER TOWARDS THE GA/FL LINE. IMMEDIATE ERN COASTAL AREAS
WILL LIKELY ONLY EXPERIENCE SUB-CRITICAL RH VALUES. SUSTAINED NELY
WINDS MAY APPROACH 15 - 20 MPH IN SOME AREAS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...THEREBY WARRANTING A CRITICAL DELINEATION.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NC COASTAL PLAIN...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH
A STRONG CORRIDOR OF MID-LEVEL WINDS /60 KTS AT 500 MB/ WILL ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT INFLUENCE OVER THE SE.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
DESPITE THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...MODERATE
SUSTAINED N-NNELY WINDS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP /15 - 20 MPH/ WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WINDS SHOULD BE
WEAKER...PRIMARILY DUE TO A WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RH MINS MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS /INLAND/ AND
TWENTIES /COASTAL AREAS/ FOR A FEW HOURS SURROUNDING PEAK HEATING.
THEREFORE...HAVE OUTLINED A NARROW CRITICAL AREA WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOW RH AND STRONG WINDS SEEMS MOST LIKELY.
...NRN FL/SRN AL/SRN GA...
A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST RATHER LOW RH
/15 - 30 PERCENT/. WITH THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY NEAR THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON MIN RH
PERIOD...WINDS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION COMPARED
TO THE FL PENINSULA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE GREATER.
WHILE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY APPROACH SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 15
MPH...ANTICIPATED ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL AREA.
...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NE OF THE REGION...STRONG
MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN INVERSION NEAR 10KFT WILL ACT TO PARTIALLY
INHIBIT DEEP MIXING...THUS PREVENTING STRONGER FLOW ALOFT FROM
REACHING THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 20 MPH AND
RH IS ANTICIPATED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
..SMITH.. 04/16/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 160857
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT WED APR 16 2008
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE
PLAINS...STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY IT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS.
...SWRN TX...
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE RELATIVE SHORT TERM WITH REGARD TO
PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. RELATIVELY LARGE VARIANCE IN MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT
THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RANGE IN POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BEING MET. DRY AIR WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND LOW LEVEL
FLOW FIELDS ARE UNCLEAR ATTM. HAVE GONE WITH A SEE TEXT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL.
...FL AND PARTS OF SRN GA/AL...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MODEL
OUTPUT SUGGESTS A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES MAY VERY WELL AGAIN REACH
BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS ON THURSDAY /DAY 2/. DESPITE THIS
DRY AIR IN PLACE...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER COMPARED TO DAY
1...THUS PRECLUDING A CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
..SMITH.. 04/16/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...