Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 180733
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0233 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2008
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL
   PARTS OF THE CONUS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE MID
   SOUTH.  AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SE AND BEGIN TO AFFECT
   THE PAC NW.  IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...SURFACE
   CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  BOUNDARY
   LAYER MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT RH SHOULD UNDERGO SOME IMPROVEMENT
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE SE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EWD.
   
   ...NWRN AND CENTRAL ND...
   
   A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT FROM A
   DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. 
   RAINFALL DEFICITS OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS...WHEN COMBINED WITH
   RELATIVELY LITTLE GREENUP SO FAR...SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
   FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  00Z/18 AREA RAOBS DEPICT SPARSE LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE...AND THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIN
   RH VALUES TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND TWENTIES.  SLY WINDS OF 15
   MPH SUSTAINED ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  HOWEVER...LACK OF STRONGER LOW TO
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL RISK ATTM.
   
   ...N CENTRAL NV...
   
   STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS /50 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
   THE REGION ON FRIDAY /DAY 1/.  SUSTAINED WINDS MAY APPROACH 20
   MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP
   LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.  WHEN THE
   ABOVE ARE COMBINED WITH AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS... BORDERLINE
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/18/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 180901
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2008
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PART OF THE SW U.S....
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NE PANHANDLE AND SWRN
   SD...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MULTI-THREAT AREA OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEARS PROBABLE ON
   SATURDAY /DAY 2/.  A DEVELOPING WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SE
   TOWARDS THE PAC NW.  AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE TO
   OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS.  ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
   SUGGESTS SEPARATE AREAS OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR WITH ONE
   AREA OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A LEE-SIDE LOW OVER THE NRN
   HIGH PLAINS.  AS A RESULT...STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
   CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE WEST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - A LARGE PART OF THE SW U.S....
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS...LOW RH
   
   DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TWO WEATHER FEATURES WILL ACT
   TO ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY /DAY 2/.  IT APPEARS
   THAT A STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX /70 MPH AT 500 MB/
   WILL OVERSPREAD THE SW U.S. AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED
   TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PACIFIC NW.  VERY LOW ANTECEDENT LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. 
   MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL RESULT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS.  SUSTAINED WINDS OF
   20 TO 35 MPH MAY RESULT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  SOME GUSTS MAY
   APPROACH 50 MPH IN LOCALIZED AREAS...THOUGHT MOST LIKELY TO BE IN A
   NRN AZ/NWRN NM/SRN UT/SW CO CORRIDOR.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN OVER
   SWRN AZ AND SRN PARTS OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WHETHER CRITERIA
   MAY BE MET.  HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT MAY NOT REACH THE SURFACE
   DUE IN PART TO SMALL RELATIVE WEAKNESSES IN THE LAPSE RATES CENTERED
   AROUND 725 MB AS INDICATED IN SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  DESPITE THIS
   SMALL AREA POSSIBLY NOT EXPERIENCING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS...ENSEMBLE FOSBERG AVERAGES SUGGEST A LARGE PART OF THE
   SW WILL EXPERIENCE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE NE PANHANDLE AND SWRN
   SD...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH
   
   A LOCALIZED AREA OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS SURFACE WINDS
   INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.  DETERMINISTIC
   GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS SPARSE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
   SYSTEM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
   ANTICIPATED TO WARM INTO THE 70S.  MIXING WILL ENABLE MIN RH TO
   LOWER INTO THE LOWER TEENS FOR A FEW HOURS.  SLY WINDS SHOULD
   INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WINDS MAY REACH SUSTAINED
   SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/18/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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