Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 180733
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2008
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE CONUS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE MID
SOUTH. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SE AND BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE PAC NW. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT RH SHOULD UNDERGO SOME IMPROVEMENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EWD.
...NWRN AND CENTRAL ND...
A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT FROM A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.
RAINFALL DEFICITS OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS...WHEN COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE GREENUP SO FAR...SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. 00Z/18 AREA RAOBS DEPICT SPARSE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIN
RH VALUES TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND TWENTIES. SLY WINDS OF 15
MPH SUSTAINED ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...LACK OF STRONGER LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL RISK ATTM.
...N CENTRAL NV...
STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS /50 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION ON FRIDAY /DAY 1/. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY APPROACH 20
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP
LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WHEN THE
ABOVE ARE COMBINED WITH AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS... BORDERLINE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS.
..SMITH.. 04/18/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 180901
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2008
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PART OF THE SW U.S....
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NE PANHANDLE AND SWRN
SD...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MULTI-THREAT AREA OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEARS PROBABLE ON
SATURDAY /DAY 2/. A DEVELOPING WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SE
TOWARDS THE PAC NW. AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
SUGGESTS SEPARATE AREAS OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR WITH ONE
AREA OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A LEE-SIDE LOW OVER THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT...STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE WEST.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - A LARGE PART OF THE SW U.S....
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS...LOW RH
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TWO WEATHER FEATURES WILL ACT
TO ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY /DAY 2/. IT APPEARS
THAT A STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX /70 MPH AT 500 MB/
WILL OVERSPREAD THE SW U.S. AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PACIFIC NW. VERY LOW ANTECEDENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
20 TO 35 MPH MAY RESULT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 50 MPH IN LOCALIZED AREAS...THOUGHT MOST LIKELY TO BE IN A
NRN AZ/NWRN NM/SRN UT/SW CO CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OVER
SWRN AZ AND SRN PARTS OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WHETHER CRITERIA
MAY BE MET. HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT MAY NOT REACH THE SURFACE
DUE IN PART TO SMALL RELATIVE WEAKNESSES IN THE LAPSE RATES CENTERED
AROUND 725 MB AS INDICATED IN SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS. DESPITE THIS
SMALL AREA POSSIBLY NOT EXPERIENCING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...ENSEMBLE FOSBERG AVERAGES SUGGEST A LARGE PART OF THE
SW WILL EXPERIENCE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE NE PANHANDLE AND SWRN
SD...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH
A LOCALIZED AREA OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS SPARSE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO WARM INTO THE 70S. MIXING WILL ENABLE MIN RH TO
LOWER INTO THE LOWER TEENS FOR A FEW HOURS. SLY WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WINDS MAY REACH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH.
..SMITH.. 04/18/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...