Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 190839
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2008
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST/SRN
   GREAT BASIN...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A SMALL PART OF THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN ND...FAR ERN MT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AS A LEAD
   IMPULSE LIFTS NEWD FROM THE SRN CA COAST AND AS AN INTENSE SPEED MAX
   SHIFTS SWD ON BACKSIDE OF WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER SWRN BRITISH
   COLUMBIA. TWO DISTINCT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTROIDS WILL DEVELOP
   ACROSS NRN UT AND SERN MT/NRN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A LEE
   TROUGH DRAPED SWD FROM THE LATTER LOW.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST/SRN GREAT
   BASIN...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / VERY LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX /AROUND 60 MPH AT 500 MB/ ATTENDANT TO SRN CA
   TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...BECOMING CENTERED FROM THE GULF
   OF CA TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IN CONCERT WITH
   CYCLOGENESIS OVER NRN UT WILL RESULT IN RATHER STRONG WINDS ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE SRN GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20
   TO 30 MPH APPEAR PROBABLE...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 35 MPH ACROSS NRN
   AZ/SRN UT. WITH CURRENT SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
   BELOW ZERO TO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO...WIDESPREAD LOW RH IS
   ANTICIPATED /FROM AROUND 3 TO 12 PERCENT/ AS TEMPERATURES WARM
   MAINLY INTO THE 70S AND 80S. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS/LOW RH WILL
   EXTEND FARTHER NWD IN THE GREAT BASIN...MORE PERVASIVE NON-CRITICAL
   FUELS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - A SMALL PART OF THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   ALTHOUGH LOW RH WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A MODERATE DURATION OF 
   STRONG WINDS APPEARS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE/FAR
   NERN CO. HERE...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO
   25 MPH WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE-AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES
   WARM INTO THE 70S...RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO BETWEEN 12 TO 20
   PERCENT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - WRN ND...FAR ERN MT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / SEVERE TO EXTREME
   DROUGHT
   
   AS A LEE CYCLONE INTENSIFIES OVER NRN WY/SERN MT...THE SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
   WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHING 40 MPH BY LATE
   AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.
   AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...RH VALUES SHOULD
   DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
   
   ...SERN CO/WRN KS THROUGH ERN NM/WRN TX...
   S AND E OF THE CRITICAL AREAS...DURATION AND STRENGTH OF KINEMATIC
   FIELDS SHOULD BE MORE MARGINAL...MITIGATING A MORE WIDESPREAD
   THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S
   AND 80S...RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO BETWEEN 4 AND 15 PERCENT.
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY APPROACH 20 MPH AT PEAK
   HEATING RESULTING IN SHORT DURATION/LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/19/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 190957
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0457 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2008
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
   CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AS
   A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
   CENTERED OVER WA. A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE SHOULD SHIFT NEWD FROM THE
   CNTRL GREAT BASIN...REACHING THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MON. DOWNSTREAM
   SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME CENTERED INVOF THE BLACK HILLS SUN
   AFTERNOON...WITH AN ATTENDANT DRY LINE DRAPED SWD ACROSS THE GREAT
   PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
   CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO DAY 1 WITH THE COMBINATION OF
   WIDESPREAD STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS AND LOW RH OVER THE
   SOUTHWEST...EXPANDING EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. 500 MB WLYS AROUND
   50 TO 60 MPH AND A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. RH VALUES BETWEEN 5 TO 15
   PERCENT SHOULD BE COMMON...WITH LOCALLY LOWER READINGS ACROSS ERN
   NM/WRN TX.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/19/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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