Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 200816
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2008
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IMMENSE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS
A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
VORTEX CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WILL
EJECT FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NRN HIGH PLAINS LEE CYCLONE BIFURCATING...WITH PRIMARY
CYCLONE DEVELOPING NWD INTO SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW
WEAKENS ACROSS SD BY EARLY MON. SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE WILL
BE ATTENDANT TO THE LATTER LOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN....WHILE A N/S
ORIENTED DRY LINE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO SAT AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH ON THE SRN/SERN FLANK OF LARGE-SCALE WRN
CONUS TROUGH. 500 MB WLYS AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH AND A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 TO
30 MPH. THE MOST INTENSE SPEEDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN PORTION
OF THE CRITICAL AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MID-LEVEL JET. SURFACE
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE VEERED COMPARED TO
SAT...GENERALLY FROM THE W/SW.
WITH CURRENT SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST /W OF THE DRY LINE/...AFTERNOON RH
VALUES SHOULD AGAIN PLUMMET TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 PERCENT. EXTREMELY
LOW RH /FROM 2 TO 5 PERCENT/ IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. DESPITE
A VERY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ONLY MODERATELY STRONG WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED IN THIS REGION...PRECLUDING AN UPGRADE TO EXTREMELY
CRITICAL.
...CNTRL DAKOTAS...
AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET SAMPLED BY REGIONAL PROFILERS WILL DEVELOP
EWD FROM THE WRN INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE WEAKENING TO AROUND 50
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S...MIXING WILL
RESULT IN VERY STRONG SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 30 TO 35 MPH. THE
MITIGATING FACTOR TO A CRITICAL AREA WILL BE THE LACK OF LOW RH
BASED ON UPSTREAM DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. RH VALUES
SHOULD ONLY FALL TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT.
..GRAMS.. 04/20/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 200934
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2008
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL EVOLVE INTO TWO DISTINCT
UPPER LOW CENTERS BY EARLY TUE...ONE FORMING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WITH THE OTHER RETROGRADING WWD JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS IN THE
WEST...SHIFTING NWD FROM CNTRL LATITUDES INTO THE NRN TIER. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS
BECOMING JUXTAPOSED WITH A WEAK CYCLONE INVOF OK/TX PANHANDLES MON
AFTERNOON. SURFACE DRY LINE WILL MIX EWD INTO CNTRL OK/TX.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS / VERY LOW RH / RECENT
DRYNESS
A WARM AND VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE A SUBSTANTIAL
RELAXING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMPARED TO THIS
WEEKEND...MID-LEVEL WLYS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO WEAKENING MON NIGHT. THUS...A CRITICAL THREAT
SHOULD LINGER INTO DAY 2 /ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD IN AREA AND
MAGNITUDE AS IN RECENT DAYS/. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH NEAR PEAK HEATING WITH RH VALUES FROM
4 TO 10 PERCENT COMMON.
...MOST OF WRN TX...
MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH MIXING THE DRY LINE EWD
INTO CNTRL TX/OK MON AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S TO THE LOWER 90S W OF THIS BOUNDARY LEADING TO VERY LOW
RH VALUES AROUND 5 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THIS REGION SHOULD BE FARTHER
REMOVED FROM MORE INTENSE WLYS ALOFT. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD
STILL PROMOTE SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH AT PEAK HEATING.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED/SHORT-DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
..GRAMS.. 04/20/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...