Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 200816
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2008
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
   PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IMMENSE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS
   A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
   VORTEX CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WILL
   EJECT FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
   RESULT IN NRN HIGH PLAINS LEE CYCLONE BIFURCATING...WITH PRIMARY
   CYCLONE DEVELOPING NWD INTO SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW
   WEAKENS ACROSS SD BY EARLY MON. SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE WILL
   BE ATTENDANT TO THE LATTER LOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD
   FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN....WHILE A N/S
   ORIENTED DRY LINE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
   PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
   
   SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO SAT AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD
   STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH ON THE SRN/SERN FLANK OF LARGE-SCALE WRN
   CONUS TROUGH. 500 MB WLYS AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH AND A TIGHT SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 TO
   30 MPH. THE MOST INTENSE SPEEDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN PORTION
   OF THE CRITICAL AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MID-LEVEL JET. SURFACE
   WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE VEERED COMPARED TO
   SAT...GENERALLY FROM THE W/SW.
   
   WITH CURRENT SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST /W OF THE DRY LINE/...AFTERNOON RH
   VALUES SHOULD AGAIN PLUMMET TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 PERCENT. EXTREMELY
   LOW RH /FROM 2 TO 5 PERCENT/ IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. DESPITE
   A VERY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ONLY MODERATELY STRONG WINDS
   ARE ANTICIPATED IN THIS REGION...PRECLUDING AN UPGRADE TO EXTREMELY
   CRITICAL.
   
   ...CNTRL DAKOTAS...
   AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET SAMPLED BY REGIONAL PROFILERS WILL DEVELOP
   EWD FROM THE WRN INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE WEAKENING TO AROUND 50
   MPH THIS AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S...MIXING WILL
   RESULT IN VERY STRONG SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 30 TO 35 MPH. THE
   MITIGATING FACTOR TO A CRITICAL AREA WILL BE THE LACK OF LOW RH
   BASED ON UPSTREAM DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. RH VALUES
   SHOULD ONLY FALL TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/20/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 200934
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0434 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2008
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
   THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL EVOLVE INTO TWO DISTINCT
   UPPER LOW CENTERS BY EARLY TUE...ONE FORMING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
   PRAIRIES WITH THE OTHER RETROGRADING WWD JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW
   COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS IN THE
   WEST...SHIFTING NWD FROM CNTRL LATITUDES INTO THE NRN TIER. AT THE
   SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS
   BECOMING JUXTAPOSED WITH A WEAK CYCLONE INVOF OK/TX PANHANDLES MON
   AFTERNOON. SURFACE DRY LINE WILL MIX EWD INTO CNTRL OK/TX.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
   THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS / VERY LOW RH / RECENT
   DRYNESS
   
   A WARM AND VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE A SUBSTANTIAL
   RELAXING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMPARED TO THIS
   WEEKEND...MID-LEVEL WLYS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MON
   AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO WEAKENING MON NIGHT. THUS...A CRITICAL THREAT
   SHOULD LINGER INTO DAY 2 /ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD IN AREA AND
   MAGNITUDE AS IN RECENT DAYS/. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
   GENERALLY AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH NEAR PEAK HEATING WITH RH VALUES FROM
   4 TO 10 PERCENT COMMON.
   
   ...MOST OF WRN TX...
   MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH MIXING THE DRY LINE EWD
   INTO CNTRL TX/OK MON AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
   MIDDLE 80S TO THE LOWER 90S W OF THIS BOUNDARY LEADING TO VERY LOW
   RH VALUES AROUND 5 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THIS REGION SHOULD BE FARTHER
   REMOVED FROM MORE INTENSE WLYS ALOFT. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD
   STILL PROMOTE SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH AT PEAK HEATING.
   THIS WOULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED/SHORT-DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/20/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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