Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 210837
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN ROCKIES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL EVOLVE INTO TWO DISTINCT
   UPPER LOW CENTERS BY EARLY TUE...ONE FORMING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
   PRAIRIES WITH THE OTHER RETROGRADING WWD JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW
   COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS
   SHIFTING NWD IN THE WEST...FROM CNTRL LATITUDES TO THE NRN TIER. AT
   THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SWD THROUGH THE
   CNTRL INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL OVERTAKE A N/S ORIENTED DRYLINE
   EXPECTED TO MIX INTO SWRN OK/CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE SRN ROCKIES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH / GUSTY WINDS / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   CURRENT SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS REFLECT
   THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. RH VALUES
   WILL BE VERY LOW ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...FALLING TO AROUND 4 TO
   8 PERCENT. A SUBSTANTIAL RELAXING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
   WILL LEAD TO SHORTER DURATIONS AND AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONG WINDS
   COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL
   WLYS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STEEPENING
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS NEAR PEAK
   HEATING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH MOST PROBABLE
   INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN ROCKIES.
   
   ...MOST OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   AS THE DRY LINE MIXES EWD INTO CNTRL TX/SWRN OK...VERY WARM
   TEMPERATURES /80S AND 90S/ JUXTAPOSED WITHIN A VERY DRY AIR MASS
   WILL PRODUCE EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES /2 TO 5 PERCENT/ THIS
   AFTERNOON. DESPITE DEEP MIXING...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
   MORE MODERATE COMPARED TO SUN...LIKELY RANGING FROM 12 TO 20 MPH AT
   PEAK HEATING.
   
   ...SWRN NEB/WRN KS...
   GUSTY N/NWLY WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON IN THE WAKE OF A
   COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
   AOB 20 MPH NEAR EARLY AFTERNOON AS STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES
   QUICKLY DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING. AMPLE INSOLATION SHOULD SUPPORT
   TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND
   15 TO 20 PERCENT. A BRIEF JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW RH/STRONG WINDS MAY
   OCCUR RESULTING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/21/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 210957
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0457 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD
   WHILE AN UPSTREAM LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE PACIFIC NW
   COAST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS EWD FROM THE ERN PACIFIC
   ACROSS CA INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN BY EARLY WED. AT THE SURFACE...A
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT E FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE WRN GREAT
   LAKES.
   
   ...ANTELOPE VALLEY OF CA TO FAR SWRN UT/NWRN AZ...
   WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
   COAST...LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN PRIMARILY LATE IN THE
   DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE WAVE SUGGESTS THAT
   SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNSET. THIS
   WOULD LIKELY BE JUXTAPOSED WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH OF 10 TO 15
   PERCENT FOR A SHORT DURATION PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
   COOLING.
   
   ...WRN ND/FAR ERN MT...
   AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...THE
   NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR SUBSIDENCE TUE
   AFTERNOON WITH STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH.
   UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE
   LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY
   REACH THE 50S WITH RH VALUES BECOMING MARGINALLY LOW /AROUND 20
   PERCENT/.
   
   ...ERN CO/WRN KS/NEB PANHANDLE...
   LOW-LEVEL S/SELYS SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE TUE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
   PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS
   SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH TOWARDS EARLY EVENING. GUIDANCE GREATLY
   DIFFERS WITH THE ONSET OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE SRN
   PLAINS...LIKELY A RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL VARIATION ON EVENTUAL
   PLACEMENT OF COLD FRONT BOUNDARY FROM DAY 1. THIS WILL IMPACT
   WHETHER OR NOT CRITICALLY LOW RH WILL DEVELOP. GIVEN THIS
   UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED MARGINAL DURATION OF ANY STRONG WINDS...A
   CRITICAL AREA IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/21/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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