Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 280606
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT MON APR 28 2008
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EWD INTO THE ERN
STATES WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. A
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIT NEWD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO QUEBEC. STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER
MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE ROCKIES AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A COLD FRONT QUICKLY
PUSHES THROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST.
...ERN NM/FAR WRN TX...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ROCKIES...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING OVER THE SWRN STATES AND WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
INVOF SERN CO/NERN NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES WILL
EASILY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS SHOW A
BRIEF WINDOW LATE AFTERNOON IN WHICH SURFACE WINDS MAY SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES AT 20 MPH...WITH AN INCREASE AFTER DARK AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. OTHER SOLUTIONS SUCH AS ECM AND SREF ENSEMBLES
ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WINDS.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND MARGINAL WINDS A CRITICAL AREA WILL NOT BE
DESIGNATED...ALTHOUGH SHOULD THE LOW DEVELOP DEEPER THAN FORECAST A
HEIGHTENED THREAT WILL EXIST MAINLY ACROSS ERN NM AND WRN TX.
...PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS...
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD...SLY TO
SELY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN
PLAINS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ACROSS ERN WY/MT...AND WRN
ND/SD. DESPITE THIS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND POSSIBLY LOWER
70S...ATTM IT APPEARS THAT MINIMUM RHS WILL BE MARGINAL...THEREFORE
A CRITICAL AREA WILL NOT BE OUTLINED.
..HURLBUT.. 04/28/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 280815
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CDT MON APR 28 2008
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN
SD......
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN NEB/KS/OK...ERN CO/NM...TX
PANHANDLE......
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA/NV...MUCH OF AZ...SWRN
UT...SWRN NM......
...SYNOPSIS...
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
WILL CONTINUE EWD...WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
AND A SURFACE LOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST...WITH CRITICALLY LOW RHS
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA.
MEANWHILE IN THE WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER
THE NWRN STATES AND STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS A LARGE AREA.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A
WARM AND DRY SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TO THE W OF THE
DRY LINE RESPECTIVELY.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE
REGION...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS A JET CORE NOSES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD......
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH...STRONG WINDS...DRY CONDITIONS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION...WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 MPH OR GREATER ACROSS A LARGE AREA AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LOW AND EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE 70S...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S. DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND LACK OF RECENT PRECIPITATION AS
SHOWN ON MPE ANALYSIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...TO
THE IMMEDIATE W OF THE OUTLINE...APPROACHING FRONT AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THE STORMS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - WRN NEB/KS/OK...ERN CO/NM...TX
PANHANDLE......
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH...STRONG WINDS...ANTECEDENT DRY
CONDITIONS
AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES...STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
THE TEENS. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS AND LACK OF RECENT
PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ON MPE ANALYSIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE THREAT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CA/NV...MUCH OF AZ...SWRN
UT...SWRN NM......
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH...CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OVERTAKE A WIDESPREAD AREA ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
COAST AND A JET MAX NOSES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
EASILY WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING INTO
THE LOWER 100S...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
70S. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...WRN TX/SERN NM...
AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES...IT APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH RHS WILL BE
CRITICALLY LOW ACROSS THESE AREAS...THE STRONGER WIND CORE WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE N...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
...SERN STATES...
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD RHS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT WILL
BE COMMON...WITH LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S. WINDS APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME WITH SPEEDS OF 10
TO 15 MPH...ALTHOUGH IF IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL BE STRONGER A
CRITICAL AREA MAY NEED TO BE OUTLINED...MAINLY IN FLORIDA. MARGINAL
WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL LIMIT A CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME.
THANKS TO THE LOCAL WFOS FOR THEIR INPUT AND GREAT COLLABORATION
THIS MORNING.
..HURLBUT.. 04/28/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...