Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 280606
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0106 AM CDT MON APR 28 2008
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EWD INTO THE ERN
   STATES WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. A
   SURFACE LOW NEAR THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIT NEWD THROUGH NEW
   ENGLAND AND INTO QUEBEC. STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER
   MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. HIGH
   PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE ROCKIES AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE 
   TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A COLD FRONT QUICKLY
   PUSHES THROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST.
   
   ...ERN NM/FAR WRN TX...
   AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ROCKIES...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
   IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
   DEVELOPING OVER THE SWRN STATES AND WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
   INVOF SERN CO/NERN NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES WILL
   EASILY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES IN SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS SHOW A
   BRIEF WINDOW LATE AFTERNOON IN WHICH SURFACE WINDS MAY SUSTAIN
   THEMSELVES AT 20 MPH...WITH AN INCREASE AFTER DARK AS THE LOW
   CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. OTHER SOLUTIONS SUCH AS ECM AND SREF ENSEMBLES
   ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WINDS.
   GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND MARGINAL WINDS A CRITICAL AREA WILL NOT BE
   DESIGNATED...ALTHOUGH SHOULD THE LOW DEVELOP DEEPER THAN FORECAST A
   HEIGHTENED THREAT WILL EXIST MAINLY ACROSS ERN NM AND WRN TX.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS...
   AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD...SLY TO
   SELY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN
   PLAINS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ACROSS ERN WY/MT...AND WRN
   ND/SD. DESPITE THIS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND POSSIBLY LOWER
   70S...ATTM IT APPEARS THAT MINIMUM RHS WILL BE MARGINAL...THEREFORE
   A CRITICAL AREA WILL NOT BE OUTLINED.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 04/28/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 280815
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0315 AM CDT MON APR 28 2008
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN
   SD......
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN NEB/KS/OK...ERN CO/NM...TX
   PANHANDLE......
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA/NV...MUCH OF AZ...SWRN
   UT...SWRN NM......
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
   WILL CONTINUE EWD...WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
   AND A SURFACE LOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
   THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST...WITH CRITICALLY LOW RHS
   IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA. 
   
   MEANWHILE IN THE WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER
   THE NWRN STATES AND STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS A LARGE AREA.
   SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A
   WARM AND DRY SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS A LARGE
   PORTION OF THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TO THE W OF THE
   DRY LINE RESPECTIVELY. 
   
   ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE
   REGION...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS A JET CORE NOSES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD......
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH...STRONG WINDS...DRY CONDITIONS
   
   A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION...WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TO
   SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 MPH OR GREATER ACROSS A LARGE AREA AS THE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LOW AND EXITING
   HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
   THE 70S...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
   MID 20S. DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND LACK OF RECENT PRECIPITATION AS
   SHOWN ON MPE ANALYSIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...TO
   THE IMMEDIATE W OF THE OUTLINE...APPROACHING FRONT AND INCREASING
   INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT...WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THE STORMS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - WRN NEB/KS/OK...ERN CO/NM...TX
   PANHANDLE......
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH...STRONG WINDS...ANTECEDENT DRY
   CONDITIONS
   
   AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES...STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TO
   SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. WARM SOUTHERLY
   FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
   MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
   THE TEENS. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS AND LACK OF RECENT
   PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ON MPE ANALYSIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE THREAT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CA/NV...MUCH OF AZ...SWRN
   UT...SWRN NM......
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH...CONTINUED DRY
   CONDITIONS
   
   STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OVERTAKE A WIDESPREAD AREA ACROSS
   THE SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
   COAST AND A JET MAX NOSES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
   EASILY WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING INTO
   THE LOWER 100S...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
   70S. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
   COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
   TEENS WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...WRN TX/SERN NM...
   AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES...IT APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH RHS WILL BE
   CRITICALLY LOW ACROSS THESE AREAS...THE STRONGER WIND CORE WILL BE
   FARTHER TO THE N...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR THE GUADALUPE
   MOUNTAINS. 
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR
   WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD RHS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT WILL
   BE COMMON...WITH LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO
   MID 20S. WINDS APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME WITH SPEEDS OF 10
   TO 15 MPH...ALTHOUGH IF IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL BE STRONGER A
   CRITICAL AREA MAY NEED TO BE OUTLINED...MAINLY IN FLORIDA. MARGINAL
   WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   FRONT WILL LIMIT A CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME. 
   
   THANKS TO THE LOCAL WFOS FOR THEIR INPUT AND GREAT COLLABORATION
   THIS MORNING.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 04/28/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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