Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 040816
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT SUN MAY 04 2008
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN HALF OF ND...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL PIVOT AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD
OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE S CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER
WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND IT
WILL CONTINUE SWD ALONG THE W COAST WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SRN GREAT BASIN/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NERN HALF OF ND...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...NWLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DIURNAL HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20
TO 25 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 60 DEG...MIN RH WILL BE MARGINAL AOA 20
PERCENT. HOWEVER...RECENT DRYNESS/DROUGHT IN COMBINATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST SCENARIO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
...SRN NV AND LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
ANTECEDENT LOW RH WILL REMAIN FIXED ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO MIN
RH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEARBY...WEAK SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. CONCURRENTLY...SLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN /700 MB FLOW APPROACHING
25 MPH/. AS A RESULT SUSTAINED WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 MPH...BUT THE
BREVITY OF THE ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS DOES NOT WARRANT A CRITICAL
AREA.
...S CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
LEE TROUGHING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SUSTAINED
SWLY WINDS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT ARE ANTICIPATED TO
MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PROMOTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEG...IT APPEARS THAT MIN RH
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THEREFORE...BORDERLINE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL
DELINEATION.
..SMITH.. 05/04/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 040856
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT SUN MAY 04 2008
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL SUPPORT A NWLY FLOW REGIME
OVER THE NRN TIER STATES. ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
SRN BAJA CA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE SWRN U.S. WITH
STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS ALOFT ACCOMPANYING IT. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE SW U.S. IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE.
...SRN AZ/NM...
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON THE SWRN
U.S. AND NRN MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF THESE WINDS. THIS HAPPENS TO BE THE MAIN COMPLICATING
FACTOR INFLUENCING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WHETHER THEY
WILL EXIST ON MONDAY. DETERMINISTIC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR WINDS MAY BE MET...BUT ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
SUGGESTS OTHERWISE AND REDUCES THE PROBABILITIES OF THIS OCCURRING.
IT APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE MAINTAINED
LEADING UP TO MONDAY SUPPORTING CRITICAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DUE
TO THE VARIABILITY OF BORDERLINE CONDITIONS ATTM...WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL BY MEANS OF A SEE TEXT AREA WITH THE NOTION OF A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN THE NEXT OUTLOOK.
..SMITH.. 05/04/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...