Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 040816
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 AM CDT SUN MAY 04 2008
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN HALF OF ND...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL PIVOT AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWD
   INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD
   OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.  MEANWHILE...A SURFACE PRESSURE
   TROUGH WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE S CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  FURTHER
   WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND IT
   WILL CONTINUE SWD ALONG THE W COAST WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW
   AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.  WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
   VICINITY OF THE SRN GREAT BASIN/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NERN HALF OF ND...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
   
   STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING SWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  BEHIND THE COLD
   FRONT...NWLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS.  DIURNAL HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT TO
   THE SURFACE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20
   TO 25 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
   ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 60 DEG...MIN RH WILL BE MARGINAL AOA 20
   PERCENT.  HOWEVER...RECENT DRYNESS/DROUGHT IN COMBINATION WITH THE
   AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST SCENARIO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.
   
   ...SRN NV AND LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   
   ANTECEDENT LOW RH WILL REMAIN FIXED ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO MIN
   RH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.  WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEARBY...WEAK SURFACE
   CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE REGION.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A
   STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  CONCURRENTLY...SLY FLOW
   AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN /700 MB FLOW APPROACHING
   25 MPH/.  AS A RESULT SUSTAINED WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 MPH...BUT THE
   BREVITY OF THE ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS DOES NOT WARRANT A CRITICAL
   AREA.
   
   ...S CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   
   LEE TROUGHING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
   PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  SUSTAINED
   SWLY WINDS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT ARE ANTICIPATED TO
   MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH.  WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PROMOTING
   AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEG...IT APPEARS THAT MIN RH
   WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.  THEREFORE...BORDERLINE
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL
   DELINEATION.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/04/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 040856
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 AM CDT SUN MAY 04 2008
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL SUPPORT A NWLY FLOW REGIME
   OVER THE NRN TIER STATES.  ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
   SRN BAJA CA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE SWRN U.S. WITH
   STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS ALOFT ACCOMPANYING IT.  SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE SW U.S. IN RESPONSE TO THE
   UPPER DISTURBANCE.
   
   ...SRN AZ/NM...
   
   STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON THE SWRN
   U.S. AND NRN MEXICO.  MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT ON THE
   MAGNITUDE OF THESE WINDS.  THIS HAPPENS TO BE THE MAIN COMPLICATING
   FACTOR INFLUENCING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WHETHER THEY
   WILL EXIST ON MONDAY.  DETERMINISTIC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR WINDS MAY BE MET...BUT ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
   SUGGESTS OTHERWISE AND REDUCES THE PROBABILITIES OF THIS OCCURRING. 
   IT APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE MAINTAINED
   LEADING UP TO MONDAY SUPPORTING CRITICAL CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...DUE
   TO THE VARIABILITY OF BORDERLINE CONDITIONS ATTM...WILL HIGHLIGHT
   THE POTENTIAL BY MEANS OF A SEE TEXT AREA WITH THE NOTION OF A
   POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN THE NEXT OUTLOOK.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/04/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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