Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 050747
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2008
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SE AZ...SW NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL SUPPORT A NWLY FLOW REGIME
   OVER THE NERN CONUS WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING SEWD
   ACROSS THE MIDWEST/E COAST.  ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST
   OFF SRN BAJA CA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE SWRN U.S. WITH
   STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS ALOFT ACCOMPANYING IT.  SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW U.S. IN RESPONSE TO THE
   UPPER DISTURBANCE LEADING TO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SE AZ...SW NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH...STRONG WINDS...DROUGHT
   
   ANTECEDENT VERY LOW RH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  AS THE
   UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE REGION...STRENGTHENING
   MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON THE SWRN U.S.  PREVIOUS
   CONCERNS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE
   BEEN LESSENED BECAUSE OF SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.  WIND
   STRENGTH HAPPENS TO BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR INFLUENCING WHETHER
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST.  MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE
   STRONGEST WINDS WILL PROBABLY EXIST IN A LOCALIZED CORRIDOR FROM
   EXTREME SE AZ INTO SWRN NM WITH THE MOST SEVERE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
   TO MIRROR THIS ZONE.  SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO PERHAPS 30 MPH ARE
   LIKELY...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.  THE SURROUNDING AREAS NEAR THE
   OUTLINED CRITICAL BORDER WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A LESS SEVERE
   THREAT/RELATIVELY WEAKER SUSTAINED WINDS.
   
   ...PARTS OF SRN AL/GA AND NRN FL...
   
   DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY UNDER THE
   INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.  MIN RH
   MAY FALL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES FOR A FEW HRS.  HOWEVER...FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 15
   MPH...THEREFORE PRECLUDING A CRITICAL THREAT AREA.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/05/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 050927
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0427 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2008
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR WEST TX...MUCH OF NM...EXTREME
   SRN CO/SE AZ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO/SRN AZ WILL EJECT EWD TOWARDS THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND BECOME AN
   OPEN UPPER TROUGH.  DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF MASS
   FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE
   CONTINUES TO STRONGLY SUGGEST FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE SW AHEAD OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND WEST OF A
   DEVELOPING DRYLINE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR WEST TX...MUCH OF NM...EXTREME
   SRN CO/SE AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
   
   VERY DRY AIR WITH MIN RH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE
   LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   STRENGTHEN DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. 
   WARM AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH THE UPPER LOW TO
   STEEPEN LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS MAY APPROACH 30 MPH OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. 
   HOWEVER...THERE IS CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT KEY
   SURFACE FEATURES THAT WILL INFLUENCE WHERE CRITICAL CONDITIONS
   OCCUR.  THE ERN BOUNDS TO THE CRITICAL AREA WILL BE THE
   DRYLINE...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS OF
   TX OR EXTREME ERN NM.  ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE
   CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF SERN CO...ACTING AS THE
   NERN BOUND TO THE CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ...FL...
   
   CRITICALLY LOW RH MAY EXIST AGAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SE U.S. WITH
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY.  SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
   REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH OVER MOST OF THE AREA PRECLUDING A CRITICAL
   DELINEATION.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/05/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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