Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 050747
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2008
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SE AZ...SW NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL SUPPORT A NWLY FLOW REGIME
OVER THE NERN CONUS WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING SEWD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/E COAST. ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST
OFF SRN BAJA CA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE SWRN U.S. WITH
STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS ALOFT ACCOMPANYING IT. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW U.S. IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE LEADING TO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SE AZ...SW NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH...STRONG WINDS...DROUGHT
ANTECEDENT VERY LOW RH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE REGION...STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON THE SWRN U.S. PREVIOUS
CONCERNS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE
BEEN LESSENED BECAUSE OF SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. WIND
STRENGTH HAPPENS TO BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR INFLUENCING WHETHER
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL PROBABLY EXIST IN A LOCALIZED CORRIDOR FROM
EXTREME SE AZ INTO SWRN NM WITH THE MOST SEVERE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO MIRROR THIS ZONE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO PERHAPS 30 MPH ARE
LIKELY...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE SURROUNDING AREAS NEAR THE
OUTLINED CRITICAL BORDER WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A LESS SEVERE
THREAT/RELATIVELY WEAKER SUSTAINED WINDS.
...PARTS OF SRN AL/GA AND NRN FL...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. MIN RH
MAY FALL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES FOR A FEW HRS. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 15
MPH...THEREFORE PRECLUDING A CRITICAL THREAT AREA.
..SMITH.. 05/05/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 050927
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0427 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2008
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR WEST TX...MUCH OF NM...EXTREME
SRN CO/SE AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO/SRN AZ WILL EJECT EWD TOWARDS THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND BECOME AN
OPEN UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF MASS
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO STRONGLY SUGGEST FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SW AHEAD OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND WEST OF A
DEVELOPING DRYLINE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR WEST TX...MUCH OF NM...EXTREME
SRN CO/SE AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
VERY DRY AIR WITH MIN RH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION.
WARM AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH THE UPPER LOW TO
STEEPEN LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS MAY APPROACH 30 MPH OVER PARTS OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE IS CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT KEY
SURFACE FEATURES THAT WILL INFLUENCE WHERE CRITICAL CONDITIONS
OCCUR. THE ERN BOUNDS TO THE CRITICAL AREA WILL BE THE
DRYLINE...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS OF
TX OR EXTREME ERN NM. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF SERN CO...ACTING AS THE
NERN BOUND TO THE CRITICAL AREA.
...FL...
CRITICALLY LOW RH MAY EXIST AGAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SE U.S. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH OVER MOST OF THE AREA PRECLUDING A CRITICAL
DELINEATION.
..SMITH.. 05/05/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...