Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 060800
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2008
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LARGE PART OF NM...FAR WEST TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EWD AND
   BECOME AN OPEN UPPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  DETERMINISTIC
   MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRONGLY SUGGEST FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
   DISTURBANCE AND WEST OF A DEVELOPING DRYLINE OVER THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS.  ELSEWHERE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A RELATIVELY VERY DRY
   AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE SERN U.S.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - LARGE PART OF NM...FAR WEST TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
   
   00Z/06 RAOBS SAMPLED VERY DRY LOW LEVELS IN THE SWRN U.S.  THIS DRY
   AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO RH MIN VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
   TEENS ACROSS THE REGION.  LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
   IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL SURFACE HEATING AND PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
   WAVE.  THIS SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL OCCUR. 
   LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES.  WITH 700MB WINDS
   25-30 KTS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF 20
   MPH OVER A LARGE AREA...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS APPROACHING 30 MPH. 
   ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS WHERE THE DRYLINE/SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH
   WILL SETUP...WHICH WILL ACT AS THE ERN BOUND TO THE CRITICAL AREA. 
   ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
   OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE CO/KS/OK BORDER...ACTING AS THE NERN
   BOUND TO THE CRITICAL AREA.  RECENT RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF ERN/SERN
   NM WILL SERVE AS MITIGATING FACTORS FOR FIRE POTENTIAL DESPITE
   POSSIBLE FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE SERN U.S...
   
   CRITICALLY LOW RH WILL LIKELY EXIST AGAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SE U.S.
   WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY.  HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD
   GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH OVER MOST OF THE AREA PRECLUDING A
   CRITICAL DELINEATION.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/06/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 060920
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0420 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2008
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NM / FAR W TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED LOW OVER NM WILL LIKELY WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN UPPER TROUGH
   AND MOVE EWD OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS.  A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO
   DEVELOP OVER OK WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE FEATURE MOVING EWD DURING
   THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD FROM THE
   PACIFIC COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION.  IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE
   LOW MAY DEVELOP LEADING TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
   THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN NM / FAR WEST TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
   
   MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
   AREA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.  AS A
   RESULT...FLOW ALOFT WILL TEND TO BE WEAKER THAN THE DAY 1 FORECAST. 
   HOWEVER...ANTECEDENT DRY AIR AND DROUGHT WILL EXACERBATE FIRE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL.  RH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW THROUGHOUT THE REGION
   BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.  WITH MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
   DENOTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
   POSSIBLE.  ONE IMPORTANT COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE EFFECT THAT
   RECENT/FORECAST PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ON THE AREAL OUTLINE.  AT
   PRESENT...WILL ONLY DELINEATE THE CRITICAL AREA TO INCLUDE LOCATIONS
   DEVOID OF RECENT OR DAY 1 POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION AREAS.
   
   ...TX TRANSPECOS/SOUTH PLAINS REGIONS...
   
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO EXIST IN LOCATIONS E OF
   THE CRITICAL AREA DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH.  HOWEVER...RECENT
   OR FORECAST PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL LIKELY EXERT
   SOME INFLUENCE AS TO WHETHER A CRITICAL OUTLOOK IS WARRANTED.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT BASIN...
   
   DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
   TOWARDS THE REGION.  FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THIS
   SYSTEM...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS WELL THAT WOULD
   LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  DRY AIR WILL
   LIKELY BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN ON
   WHERE THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF DRY AIR/STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR.  IT
   IS QUITE POSSIBLE PARTS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED...BUT
   WILL LEAVE THIS TO LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE SERN U.S...
   
   CRITICALLY LOW RH MAY ONCE AGAIN OCCUR ACROSS PARTS PORTIONS OF THE
   SE.  HOWEVER...RELATIVELY LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PRECLUDE A
   CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/06/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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