Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 110715
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0215 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WILL BE A VERY STRONG UPPER
   TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL AFFECT THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
   WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC. A
   COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWD FROM A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE
   CAROLINAS INTO SRN GA AND NRN FL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
   BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG WINDS AND LOWERING RH WILL INCREASE THE
   FIRE THREAT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO AL.
   
   THE MAIN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH MILD BUT VERY DRY WEATHER. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
   UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE W COAST AND GREAT BASIN
   OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASED WINDS FOR THOSE AREAS AHEAD OF THIS
   FEATURE.
   
   ...ERN NV INTO SRN UT...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ENTER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE DAY AND
   OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASED SWLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   NEAR 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
   HIGH TERRAIN OF SRN UT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
   WARM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. STILL...MIN RH FROM
   10-15 PERCENT IS LIKELY FOR A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE THREAT.
   
   ...AZ INTO NM AND SERN CO AND AR W TX...
   A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY...AND
   THIS WILL BE REINFORCED BY DRY TRAJECTORIES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS
   HIGH. STRONG HEATING AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE
   LOWER ATMOSPHERE FROM AZ INTO NM. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH
   BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH IT WILL ALSO
   BE VERY DRY WITH MIN RH FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER
   TEENS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS ON
   THE LARGE SCALE FOR A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT TODAY.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL/SRN AL...
   VERY STRONG WLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED ARE EXPECTED OVER
   MS/AL/GAIN POST FRONTAL REGIME TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
   THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH MIN RH VALUES WELL INTO THE 30 PERCENT
   RANGE. THE MITIGATING FACTOR TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
   EFFECT OF PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AS WELL AS
   RECENT PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST WEEK. HOWEVER...A LOCALIZED
   CRITICAL FIRE THREAT MAY EXIST IN SPORADIC COUNTIES THAT HAVE
   RECEIVED RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION LATELY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/11/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 110718
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0218 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN HIGH PLAINS...NM...NRN AND ERN
   AZ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN GA AND FL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES ON
   MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER ERN CO/WRN KS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR BOTH NEAR THE BASE OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH FROM SRN CA INTO AZ/NM...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A STRONG
   PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN
   A POST FRONTAL REGIME OVER THE SERN STATES...WITH CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN GA AND FL.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN HIGH PLAINS...NM...NRN AND ERN
   AZ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS AND VERY LOW RH
   
   AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS WILL EXIST AS AN
   UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. WINDS OF 20-30
   MPH WILL GENERALLY EXTEND FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY OF SRN
   CA/SWRN AZ EWD ACROSS NRN AZ AND ACROSS ALL OF NM INTO W TX/OK
   PANHANDLE AND SWRN KS. MIN AFTERNOON RH WILL AVERAGE 7-15 PERCENT AS
   WELL.
   
   THE MOST POTENT COMBINATION OF VERY LOW RH AND STRONG WINDS WILL
   EXIST OVER CNTRL AND ERN NM AS WELL AS THE WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES.
   HERE..SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF 25-30 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
   OVER 40 MPH AS WELL AS SINGLE DIGIT RH. EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS MAY
   RESULT IN SOME LOCALES AND PORTIONS OF NM MAY BE UPGRADED FURTHER IF
   WIND AND RH COMBINATION INCREASE INTO THE DAY 1 PERIOD.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN GA AND FL...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH
   
   A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
   BUILDING IN ON MONDAY. WLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
   BRING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH MIN RH VALUES AVERAGING IN
   THE 20 PERCENT RANGE...THE EXCEPTION FAR SRN FL WITH VALUES IN THE
   30-40 PERCENT RANGE. IN ADDITION TO LOW RH AND STRONG WINDS...LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP WITH DEEP MIXING LAYERS TO
   AROUND 850 MB.
   
   IT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN HOW FAR NORTH THE NRN EDGE OF THE CRITICAL
   AREA WILL GO...DUE TO PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL ON SUNDAY. IF
   AREAS FARTHER N END UP BEING DRIER THAN FORECAST...THE CRITICAL AREA
   COULD BE EXPANDED NWD INTO SC.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/11/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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