Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 190904
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0404 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
   RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST ON THE NRN/NERN FLANK
   OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND ROCKIES. AS THESE
   FEATURES DEVELOP INTO MEAN LARGE SCALE TROUGH POSITION OVER THE ERN
   U.S...AND A STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
   COAST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FCST TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NRN
   ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
   
   UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN DOMINATE MUCH OF THE WEST
   AND GREAT BASIN DUE TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER
   RIDGE AXIS FROM SRN CA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
   SUBSIDENCE COUPLED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT LOW LEVEL
   THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXPANDING EWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN
   PLAINS.
   
   A BELT OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE WRN
   RIDGE AND THE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SERN
   CANADA. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS FLOW...NOW CRESTING THE CANADIAN
   ROCKIES...WILL INDUCE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE OVER SCNTRL CANADA
   THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATER
   TODAY WITH STRONG NWLY SURFACE WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
   
   ...ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS...
   AS WAVE CYCLONE PASSES ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...POST-FRONTAL NW
   WINDS WILL REACH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
   DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RH VALUES LOCALLY DROPPING
   BELOW 25 PCT FROM ERN MT TO NWRN SD. WHILE CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
   REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR FIRE CONCERNS...GENERALLY COOLER
   POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS /MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING LWR 70S F/ SHOULD
   KEEP DURATION OF LOWEST RH VALUES LIMITED.
   
   ...SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL EASILY REACH THE 95-100F IN A SWATH FROM SERN
   AZ TO WEST TX. IN COMBINATION WITH LOCALLY ANTECEDENT DRY
   CONDITIONS...RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS PCT AND
   CONTRIBUTE TO A PERIOD WHERE FIRE COULD BE A PROBLEM. GENERALLY WEAK
   SUSTAINED WINDS /AOB 20 MPH IN MOST PLACES/ WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   LIMITING FACTOR PRECLUDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
   THESE REGIONS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 190905
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0405 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN/LWR CO
   RIVER VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE FORECAST IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME
   ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL U.S. THIS PERIOD. AS DEEP POLAR VORTEX AND
   MEAN UPPER TROUGH REMAIN ANCHORED OVER SERN CANADA AND THE
   EAST...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH
   WILL EVOLVE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY DIG SEWD/INLAND
   ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN. SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT
   FALLS /150M-200M PER 12H/ WILL ACCOMPANY THE WRN TROUGH FROM THE
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NV/UT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
   EARLY-SEASON HEAT WAVE THAT HAS DOMINATED THESE AREAS OVER THE PAST
   SEVERAL DAYS WILL COME TO A QUICK END AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
   WITH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS EWD/SEWD THIS PERIOD.
   
   AS THE STRONG TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE WEST...A SHARP UPPER
   RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE CNTRL U.S. AND LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FIELD
   WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON OMEGA-BLOCK CHARACTERISTICS TOWARD MIDWEEK.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF SRN NV...SERN CA...SWRN
   UT...AND NWRN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LONG-TERM DROUGHT...VERY LOW RH...GUSTY
   WINDS...FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
   
   INCREASING DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA WILL PROMOTE
   DOWNSLOPE HEATING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL AREA WHERE
   TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S F/LWR 90S F PRIOR TO FRONTAL
   PASSAGE. FARTHER SOUTH...PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE WITHIN/BENEATH
   DECAYING LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB TO 100-105
   F IN MOST AREAS. RH VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE ZONE WILL FALL BELOW 10
   PCT AS WLY/WSWLY WINDS INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 20
   MPH. WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 35 MPH IN SOME AREAS AS THE STRONGER
   KINEMATICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SPREAD OVER THE REGION.
   
   ANY ONGOING FIRE ACTIVITY MAY BE AFFECTED BY FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
   EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA DURING
   THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING TUESDAY. SW TO WSW WINDS OF 20-30
   MPH WILL SHIFT TO W AND THEN NW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AS THE FRONT MOVES
   THROUGH.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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