Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 200857
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SRN GREAT BASIN/HIGH
DESERT...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE WRN STATES TODAY AND
AID IN THE BREAKDOWN OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTER-MTN
WEST/ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...MODERATE SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SW
LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION.
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH...ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MAINTAINED OVER THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO MUCH OF THIS REGION OF THE NATION. ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH...MODERATE SFC WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH
READINGS TO SUPPORT NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
PORTIONS OF FL.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF SRN NV/SWRN UT...WRN
AZ...SERN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...RH READINGS 5-10 PERCENT
AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT...STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL WINDS AND A DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE
ERN GREAT BASIN WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE SFC WINDS
OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH DESERT/SRN GREAT BASIN AND LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES /NEAR RECORD LEVELS/ WILL
SUPPORT VERY LOW RH READINGS /5-10 PERCENT/. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SWD THROUGH SRN NV OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE NW
AND REMAIN MODERATE. POOR RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT AS SFC WINDS REMAIN NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS.
...FL...
ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...AFTERNOON WLY WINDS FROM
15-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH MIN RH READINGS FROM 35-40 PERCENT TO
PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME OVER MOST OF THE STATE...THE LOWEST RH
READINGS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE STATE AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST...DUE TO LOCATION BEING FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE SOURCE REGION.
..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 200859
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN
ROCKIES/DESERT SW...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SRN ROCKIES...DESERT
SW AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE DESERT SW
TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC OVER MUCH OF THE DESERT SW...SRN ROCKIES AND
PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. COMBINED WITH LOW RH READINGS A
LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. WHERE
SFC WINDS ARE STRONGEST...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SWRN NM/SERN AZ. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
TROUGH...UPPER RIDGING WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE ERN CONUS PROVIDING FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND. AS
ON DAY 1...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF FL WHERE MODERATE SFC WLY WINDS COMBINE WITH RELATIVELY
LOW RH READINGS.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ...SWRN/SCENTRAL
NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH...MIN RH READINGS AROUND 10 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
WITHIN A LARGER CRITICAL AREA...THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER SERN
AZ INTO SRN NM. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH
THESE STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS
AROUND 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 F AND DEWPTS IN THE TEENS WILL PRODUCE MIN
RH READINGS FROM 5-10 PERCENT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS
WILL SUPPORT EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...VERY POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN
MOST AREAS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - HIGH DESERT OF SRN CA EWD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-15 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS
AND/OR COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LESS
DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 20 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS /SUSTAINED FROM 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH/
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/HIGH DESERT OF SRN CA
WHERE THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL JUXTAPOSE VERY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA WILL BE 10-15 DEG F COOLER THAN
TODAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND THUS MIN RH
READINGS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CRITICAL AREA WILL EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED SFC WINDS
FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-15
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL AREA /MUCH OF AZ/SERN CA AND SRN
NV/ TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS OVER SERN NM/SWRN TX. THE ERN EXTENT OF
THE CRITICAL AREA IS DELINEATED WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
DRYLINE SHOULD EXIST DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON /FROM FAR SWRN KS
INTO SWRN TX/.
...CENTRAL VALLEY OF NRN/CENTRAL CA...
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH...DEEP MIXING COMBINED
WITH STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT NWLY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CA. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 80S WILL COMBINE WITH LOW DEWPTS IN
THE 20S TO SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-20 PERCENT. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE RH READINGS...A CRITICAL AREA WILL NOT BE
INTRODUCED ATTM.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA...
GIVEN POTENTIAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE...PORTIONS OF SWRN KS AND WRN TX MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED IN THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AFTER FURTHER FORECAST
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
...NRN/CENTRAL FL...
ANOTHER DAY OF MODERATE WLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER FL TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS. GIVEN SIMILAR LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES AS ON DAY 1...MIN RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS /35 PERCENT/ OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL FL PRECLUDING A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...