Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 200857
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SRN GREAT BASIN/HIGH
   DESERT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE WRN STATES TODAY AND
   AID IN THE BREAKDOWN OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTER-MTN
   WEST/ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...MODERATE SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER A
   LARGE PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SW
   LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION.
   DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH...ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
   MAINTAINED OVER THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
   TO MUCH OF THIS REGION OF THE NATION. ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
   THIS UPPER TROUGH...MODERATE SFC WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH
   READINGS TO SUPPORT NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
   PORTIONS OF FL.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF SRN NV/SWRN UT...WRN
   AZ...SERN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS...RH READINGS 5-10 PERCENT
   
   AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT...STRENGTHENING MID
   LEVEL WINDS AND A DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE
   ERN GREAT BASIN WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE SFC WINDS
   OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH DESERT/SRN GREAT BASIN AND LOWER CO RIVER
   VALLEY TODAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES /NEAR RECORD LEVELS/ WILL
   SUPPORT VERY LOW RH READINGS /5-10 PERCENT/. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
   SWD THROUGH SRN NV OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE NW
   AND REMAIN MODERATE. POOR RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF
   THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT AS SFC WINDS REMAIN NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS.
   
   ...FL...
   ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A
   BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...AFTERNOON WLY WINDS FROM
   15-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH MIN RH READINGS FROM 35-40 PERCENT TO
   PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED
   WINDS WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME OVER MOST OF THE STATE...THE LOWEST RH
   READINGS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE STATE AND ALONG
   THE EAST COAST...DUE TO LOCATION BEING FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE GULF
   OF MEXICO MOISTURE SOURCE REGION.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 200859
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0359 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN
   ROCKIES/DESERT SW...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SRN ROCKIES...DESERT
   SW AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE DESERT SW
   TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS
   WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC OVER MUCH OF THE DESERT SW...SRN ROCKIES AND
   PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. COMBINED WITH LOW RH READINGS A
   LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. WHERE
   SFC WINDS ARE STRONGEST...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SWRN NM/SERN AZ. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
   TROUGH...UPPER RIDGING WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. A STRONG
   UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE ERN CONUS PROVIDING FOR
   BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND. AS
   ON DAY 1...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION ARE EXPECTED OVER
   PORTIONS OF FL WHERE MODERATE SFC WLY WINDS COMBINE WITH RELATIVELY
   LOW RH READINGS.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ...SWRN/SCENTRAL
   NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS
   OVER 40 MPH...MIN RH READINGS AROUND 10 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   WITHIN A LARGER CRITICAL AREA...THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS
   ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER SERN
   AZ INTO SRN NM. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH
   THESE STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS
   AROUND 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. NEAR RECORD HIGH
   TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 F AND DEWPTS IN THE TEENS WILL PRODUCE MIN
   RH READINGS FROM 5-10 PERCENT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS
   WILL SUPPORT EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
   WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...VERY POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN
   MOST AREAS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - HIGH DESERT OF SRN CA EWD ACROSS THE
   SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
   OVER 40 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-15 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS
   AND/OR COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LESS
   DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS
   ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 20 MPH. THE
   STRONGEST WINDS /SUSTAINED FROM 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH/
   ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/HIGH DESERT OF SRN CA
   WHERE THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH WILL JUXTAPOSE VERY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA WILL BE 10-15 DEG F COOLER THAN
   TODAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND THUS MIN RH
   READINGS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THE
   REMAINDER OF THE CRITICAL AREA WILL EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED SFC WINDS
   FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-15
   PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
   IN THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL AREA /MUCH OF AZ/SERN CA AND SRN
   NV/ TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS OVER SERN NM/SWRN TX. THE ERN EXTENT OF
   THE CRITICAL AREA IS DELINEATED WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
   DRYLINE SHOULD EXIST DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON /FROM FAR SWRN KS
   INTO SWRN TX/.
   
   ...CENTRAL VALLEY OF NRN/CENTRAL CA...
   ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH...DEEP MIXING COMBINED
   WITH STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT NWLY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH
   WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CA. NEAR NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 80S WILL COMBINE WITH LOW DEWPTS IN
   THE 20S TO SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-20 PERCENT. GIVEN THE
   MARGINAL NATURE OF THE RH READINGS...A CRITICAL AREA WILL NOT BE
   INTRODUCED ATTM.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA...
   GIVEN POTENTIAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT
   LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE...PORTIONS OF SWRN KS AND WRN TX MAY NEED TO
   BE EXTENDED IN THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AFTER FURTHER FORECAST
   INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
   
   ...NRN/CENTRAL FL...
   ANOTHER DAY OF MODERATE WLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER FL TOMORROW AS
   AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS. GIVEN SIMILAR LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES AS ON DAY 1...MIN RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS /35 PERCENT/ OVER INTERIOR
   PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL FL PRECLUDING A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home