Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 210818
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2008
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR S CENTRAL AND SWRN NM /
SE AZ...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SWRN U.S....
...SYNOPSIS...
AN OMEGA BLOCK-TYPE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CONUS TODAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN
CONUS...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS...AND AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER PARTS OF THE E COAST. STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WRN U.S. TROUGH...PROMOTING STRONG TO VERY STRONG
WINDS AT THE SURFACE OVER MUCH OF THE SWRN U.S. A LARGE AREA OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION
GIVEN ANTECEDENT LOW RH. WHERE SFC WINDS ARE STRONGEST...MOST
LIKELY ACROSS SWRN AND S CENTRAL NM AND SE AZ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - S CENTRAL AND SWRN NM / SE
AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS...VERY LOW RH...DROUGHT
OBSERVED 00Z/21 REGIONAL RAOBS DENOTED A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THE STRONGEST 700MB WINDS /40-50 MPH/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PROBABLY OCCUR OVER THE DELINEATED AREA. STEEP
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MID-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND VERY SPARSE
SURFACE MOISTURE /DEWPTS 5-15 DEG F./ SUGGEST MIN RH READINGS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...VERY POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF THE SWRN U.S....
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS
AND/OR COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LESS
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SFC WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH IN SOME AREAS. MIN RH READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 5-15
PERCENT. THE ERN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA IS DELINEATED WHERE
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE SHOULD EXIST DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON /SERN CO TO THE TX TRANSPECOS REGION/.
...CENTRAL VALLEY OF NRN/CENTRAL CA...
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH...DEEP MIXING COMBINED
WITH STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT NWLY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CA. RELATIVELY
LOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL YIELD MIN RH 15-20
PERCENT. DESPITE EXPECTED RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MARGINAL MIN RH
READINGS...THEREFORE PRECLUDING A CRITICAL AREA.
...N CENTRAL FL...
ANOTHER DAY OF MODERATE WLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER FL AS
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. LOCALIZED AREAS
MAY APPROACH NEAR CRITICAL MIN RH READINGS /35 PERCENT/ FOR BRIEF
PERIODS...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS MOST OF THE REGION TO
EXPERIENCE NON-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..SMITH.. 05/21/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 210958
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2008
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SE AZ / MUCH OF NM / ERN CO / SWRN
KS / W TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THURSDAY /DAY 2/. THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN IS THE LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH AN ATTENDANT
DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN TX.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SE AZ / MUCH OF NM / ERN CO / SWRN
KS / W TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS /40-60 MPH AT 700 MB/ WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND THE SRN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION STARTING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIN RH TO DROP TO 5-15 PERCENT AS STEEP
LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENABLE EFFICIENT MIXING OF STRONGER/DRY
FLOW ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20 MPH OVER THE AREA...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NM APPROACHING 30-35 MPH. THE ERN EXTENT
OF THE CRITICAL AREA IS DEPENDENT ON DRYLINE PLACEMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HRS. ATTM...THE DRYLINE IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH
EWD INTO WRN KS WITH IT EXTENDING SWD TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION.
...PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO/SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS...
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE
MAINTAINED OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RELATIVELY
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST MODELS
REGARDING THE MIN RH VALUES AND THE JUXTAPOSITION/POSSIBLE
OCCURRENCE OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTIVE OF MIN RH PERHAPS REACHING INTO THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE
WITH CO-LOCATED CRITICAL WINDS. IF THIS APPEARS MORE
PROBABLE...THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IN A LATER OUTLOOK.
...WRN ND / NERN MT...
STRONG SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS /30-40 MPH AT 850 MB/ WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS MAY
EXCEED 20 MPH. RELATIVELY DRY AIR AHEAD OF ADVECTING MOISTURE
PLUME...FORECAST TO LARGELY REMAIN S AND SW OF THE REGION...MAY ACT
IN CONCERT TO YIELD LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS DESPITE MIN RH ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS ALSO
DEPENDENT ON THE OCCURRENCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY /DAY 2/. SREF
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A NEARLY EQUAL POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP.
OCCURRING/NOT OCCURRING BUT CLOUD COVER SEEMS LIKELY. AN UPGRADE TO
CRITICAL IN THE NEXT OUTLOOK APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM...DUE TO THE
UNFAVORABLE POSSIBILITIES MENTIONED ABOVE.
..SMITH.. 05/21/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...