Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 220807
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0307 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2008
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SE AZ / SERN HALF OF NM / SERN CO
   / SWRN KS / W TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
   THURSDAY /DAY 1/.  THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN IS THE LARGE UPPER
   TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX
   SURFACE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO BE IN
   THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO
   WRN TX.  VERY STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEHIND THE NRN PORTION
   OF THE DRYLINE...PERHAPS CREATING LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SE AZ / SERN HALF OF NM / SERN CO /
   SWRN KS / W TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
   
   00Z/22 REGIONAL RAOBS DEPICTED A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE SWRN
   U.S.  AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN DURING THE
   DAY.../ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN AND NERN AREA/ BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
   WILL STRENGTHEN IN TANDEM.  AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
   MOVE NEWD OVER CO/WRN KS DURING THE PERIOD.  A BELT OF STRONGER
   MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.  THE LATEST
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIN RH TO DROP TO 10-20 PERCENT AS STEEP
   LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENABLE EFFICIENT MIXING OF STRONGER/DRY
   FLOW ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.  OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS FOR SERN CO AND SWRN KS.  THIS AREA IS WHERE THE
   STRONGEST SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP /SLY AT
   30-40 MPH/ WITH ADDITIONAL HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY.  LOCALIZED EXTREMELY
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL
   GUIDANCE...BUT AN INFLUENCE FROM VEGETATION GREENUP MAY TEMPER THE
   OVERALL THREAT.  ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE LESS EXTREME BEHIND THE
   DRYLINE AND AHEAD/S OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO/SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS...
     
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS
   /20-35 MPH/ TO AFFECT THE AREA.  HOWEVER...ONLY MARGINAL MIN RH IS
   ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR...AS SUGGESTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  THUS...A
   CRITICAL DESIGNATION DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED ATTM.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/22/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 220926
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0426 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2008
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN KS / PARTS OF ERN CO AND NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM DAY 1 TO DAY 2 AS AN OMEGA
   BLOCK-TYPE SETUP REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE CONUS.  THE MAIN FEATURE
   OF CONCERN IS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS WITH
   STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING IT ON ITS PERIPHERY.  AT THE
   SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW WILL STAY FIXED IN THE VICINITY OF NERN CO
   WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE STRETCHING SWD TO WRN TX.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - WRN KS / PARTS OF ERN CO AND NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
   
   THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT AMONGST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
   GUIDANCE IN DEPICTING A BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT FROM SERN AZ
   NEWD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP
   LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL TO MIX FASTER
   MOMENTUM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.  THE RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO
   ENHANCE SURFACE WIND SPEEDS.  WITH AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN E OF THE MAIN TROUGH N-S AXIS...LOW RH VALUES
   SEEM LIKELY.  AS A RESULT...CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
   MOST OF THIS AREA.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS ARE WARRANTED IN SERN AZ/EXTREME SW NM AND NERN CO.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/22/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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