Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 230746
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN HALF OF NM / SERN CO / SWRN
KS / W TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRIKINGLY SIMILAR FIRE WEATHER SETUP APPEARS TO BE LIKELY FOR
TODAY IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY/S SCENARIO. WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY 1
CRITICAL AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE SWRN U.S. THIS MORNING...AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS UPPER WAVE TO PIVOT AROUND THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE WRN
CONUS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH AND MOVE NEWD OVER CO/WRN KS DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE
EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN TX. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE NRN PORTION OF THE DRYLINE...PERHAPS CREATING LOCALIZED
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN OVER SERN AND ERN
CO/SWRN AND WRN KS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN HALF OF NM / SERN CO / SWRN KS
/ W TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
00Z/23 REGIONAL RAOBS DEPICTED A DRY AIRMASS WITH VERY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL
REMAIN WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE SWRN U.S. TO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIN RH TO DROP TO
5-20 PERCENT AS STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENABLE EFFICIENT
MIXING OF STRONGER/DRY FLOW ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. IT WAS NOTED THAT
SREF MODEL GUIDANCE UNDER FORECAST THE MAGNITUDE OF FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS/TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX FOR THE
PREVIOUS PERIOD. WHILE THIS AREA MAY NOT EXPERIENCE AS VOLATILE
CONDITIONS TODAY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS AREA WILL STILL
EXPERIENCE CRITICAL CONDITIONS DESPITE SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A
MORE TEMPERED THREAT. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR SERN AND ERN CO/SWRN AND WRN KS. THIS AREA IS WHERE
THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP /SLY
AT 30-40 MPH/ WITH ADDITIONAL HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY. LOCALIZED
EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT AN INFLUENCE FROM VEGETATION
GREENUP/ISOLATED AREAS OF PREVIOUS DAY/S PRECIPITATION...MAY TEMPER
THE OVERALL THREAT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE LESS EXTREME BEHIND
THE DRYLINE AND AHEAD/S OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
..SMITH.. 05/23/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 230909
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0409 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SW KS / SE CO / PARTS OF OK-TX
PANHANDLES / NE NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM A LARGE CLOSED UPPER
LOW LOCATED OVER THE WRN CONUS IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE N CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO DE-AMPLIFY AS A RESULT. AT THE
SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. AN ATTENDANT N-S DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SHIFT EWD AS
WELL.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SW KS / SE CO / PARTS OF OK-TX
PANHANDLES / NE NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE S
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
EJECT NEWD OVER THE N CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS /35-50
MPH AT 700MB/ WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE AREA IN PROXIMITY TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE. STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL MIXING WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEHIND THE DRYLINE AS IT MIXES EWD. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG SSW-SWLY SUSTAINED WINDS
/20-25 MPH PERHAPS REACHING 30 MPH IN SOME AREAS/ AND LOW RH /10-20
PERCENT/ TO EXIST WARRANTING A CRITICAL AREA.
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE OUTER BOUNDS OF THE CRITICAL
AREA DUE TO MASS FIELD PLACEMENT/RECENT OR FORECAST PRECIPITATION...
AND MAY BE ADJUSTED IN THE NEXT OUTLOOK WHEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS
GAINED.
..SMITH.. 05/23/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...