Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 230746
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN HALF OF NM / SERN CO / SWRN
   KS / W TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRIKINGLY SIMILAR FIRE WEATHER SETUP APPEARS TO BE LIKELY FOR
   TODAY IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY/S SCENARIO.  WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO
   THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY 1
   CRITICAL AREA.  SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH OVER THE SWRN U.S. THIS MORNING...AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
   SHOWS THIS UPPER WAVE TO PIVOT AROUND THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE WRN
   CONUS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH AND MOVE NEWD OVER CO/WRN KS DURING THE
   PERIOD.  AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY AREA OF SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE
   EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN TX.  VERY STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
   BEHIND THE NRN PORTION OF THE DRYLINE...PERHAPS CREATING LOCALIZED
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN OVER SERN AND ERN
   CO/SWRN AND WRN KS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN HALF OF NM / SERN CO / SWRN KS
   / W TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
   
   00Z/23 REGIONAL RAOBS DEPICTED A DRY AIRMASS WITH VERY STRONG FLOW 
   ALOFT ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.  A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL
   REMAIN WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE SWRN U.S. TO THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS.  THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIN RH TO DROP TO
   5-20 PERCENT AS STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENABLE EFFICIENT
   MIXING OF STRONGER/DRY FLOW ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.  IT WAS NOTED THAT
   SREF MODEL GUIDANCE UNDER FORECAST THE MAGNITUDE OF FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS/TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX FOR THE
   PREVIOUS PERIOD.  WHILE THIS AREA MAY NOT EXPERIENCE AS VOLATILE
   CONDITIONS TODAY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS AREA WILL STILL
   EXPERIENCE CRITICAL CONDITIONS DESPITE SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A
   MORE TEMPERED THREAT.  OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS FOR SERN AND ERN CO/SWRN AND WRN KS.  THIS AREA IS WHERE
   THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP /SLY
   AT 30-40 MPH/ WITH ADDITIONAL HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY.  LOCALIZED
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE ACCORDING TO THE
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT AN INFLUENCE FROM VEGETATION
   GREENUP/ISOLATED AREAS OF PREVIOUS DAY/S PRECIPITATION...MAY TEMPER
   THE OVERALL THREAT.  ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE LESS EXTREME BEHIND
   THE DRYLINE AND AHEAD/S OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/23/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 230909
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0409 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SW KS / SE CO / PARTS OF OK-TX
   PANHANDLES / NE NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM A LARGE CLOSED UPPER
   LOW LOCATED OVER THE WRN CONUS IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD FROM THE
   CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE N CENTRAL PLAINS.  UPPER RIDGING OVER
   THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO DE-AMPLIFY AS A RESULT.  AT THE
   SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS.  AN ATTENDANT N-S DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SHIFT EWD AS
   WELL.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SW KS / SE CO / PARTS OF OK-TX
   PANHANDLES / NE NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
   
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE S
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLE AND
   DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT.  THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
   EJECT NEWD OVER THE N CENTRAL PLAINS.  STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS /35-50
   MPH AT 700MB/ WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE AREA IN PROXIMITY TO THE
   AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE.  STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL MIXING WILL LIKELY
   OCCUR BEHIND THE DRYLINE AS IT MIXES EWD.  AS A RESULT...FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW A JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG SSW-SWLY SUSTAINED WINDS
   /20-25 MPH PERHAPS REACHING 30 MPH IN SOME AREAS/ AND LOW RH /10-20
   PERCENT/ TO EXIST WARRANTING A CRITICAL AREA.  
   
   SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE OUTER BOUNDS OF THE CRITICAL
   AREA DUE TO MASS FIELD PLACEMENT/RECENT OR FORECAST PRECIPITATION...
   AND MAY BE ADJUSTED IN THE NEXT OUTLOOK WHEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS
   GAINED.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/23/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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