Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 260906
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0406 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF NM/EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF
   TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WRN S FL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   REX BLOCK OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA SHOULD RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
   COAST...WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN
   WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS NEWD TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES. ERN CANADIAN
   TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SWD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
   SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN MN WILL RAPIDLY MOVE INTO ERN QUEBEC
   BY EARLY TUE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO
   THE CAROLINAS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SINKS SWD.  FARTHER
   W...LEE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED INVOF SERN CO/OK PANHANDLE
   THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT DRY LINE DRAPED SWD ACROSS THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MOST OF NM/EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF
   TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DRYNESS
   
   OVERALL SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUN LEADING TO A
   CONTINUED CRITICAL THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH
   PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW
   OWING TO WEAKENING OF SRN GREAT BASIN TROUGH...DEEPLY MIXED
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
   AVERAGING 20 TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S AT LOWER
   ELEVATIONS WITH 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN...RESULTING IN RH VALUES FROM
   5 TO 10 PERCENT. A SHARP CUTOFF TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS
   EXPECTED...INVOF OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE DRYLINE...BREEDING
   UNCERTAINTY IN THE NRN/ERN EXTENT OF THE THREAT. THE NAM IS MOST
   AGGRESSIVE WITH MIXING THE DRYLINE EWD...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
   FARTHER W. THE TRACK RECORD OF RECENT EVENTS SUGGEST A MORE
   CONSERVATIVE/WWD-PLACEMENT OF EXPECTED DRYLINE LOCATION IS PRUDENT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF WRN S FL...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE TO SEVERE
   DROUGHT
   
   RECENT GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /AROUND 0.75 INCHES/ CONFIRM A
   RATHER DRY AIR MASS HAS SPREAD INTO S FL. 08Z SURFACE DEW POINTS
   WERE AROUND 8 TO 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S...RH VALUES WILL
   LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 30 TO 35 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MODEST...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ARE
   EXPECTED NEAR PEAK HEATING LENDING TO A MODERATE DURATION CRITICAL
   THREAT.
   
   ...INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   LOW-LEVEL SWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING CYCLONE
   CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REACH
   20 TO 25 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
   THIS MAY BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH A SHORT DURATION OF MARGINALLY LOW
   RH /AROUND 30 PERCENT/. MODEL GUIDANCE ARE INSISTENT THAT MEAN
   MIXING RATIOS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THUS ANY CRITICAL
   THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED/BRIEF.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/26/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 260927
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0427 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WEAKENING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES SHOULD MAKE LITTLE
   PROGRESS EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS...AS LARGE-SCALE RIDGE AXIS
   ATTEMPTS TO BUILD NWD FROM TX/NERN MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING
   TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST. LOW RH WILL BE MOST PERVASIVE ACROSS THE
   SRN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES ALBEIT WITH LIGHT WINDS. IN THE
   SOUTHEAST...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TO THE NERN
   GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SWD.
   
   ...WRN PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN FL...
   ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY LOW RH
   CONDITIONS /AROUND 35 PERCENT/ AWAY FROM THE ERN FL COAST. COMPARED
   TO DAY 1...A FURTHER RELAXING OF THE MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT SHOULD LIMIT SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW 15 MPH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/26/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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