Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 070805
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0305 AM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S. AND HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO
   THE GREAT BASIN.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE SWLY
   WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE OVER PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S. AND
   S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE...A LEE-SIDE LOW WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER FEATURE LEADING TO A STRENGTHENING
   SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM...UPPER
   RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE ERN CONUS LEADING TO ABOVE
   AVERAGE TEMPS...BUT HIGH RH READINGS WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S. AND HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / DROUGHT
   
   OUTER BOUNDS OF THE CRITICAL AREA APPEAR TO BE AHEAD OF AN UPPER
   TROUGH WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST...SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT
   OVER SRN UT/WRN CO AND BEHIND AN EWD PUSHING DRYLINE.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY MIX TO THE
   SFC AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH READINGS.
   THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF AZ/NM
   AND BEHIND THE DRYLINE IN THE VICINITY OF SERN CO.  DESPITE RH
   RECOVERY ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING DRYLINE/MOISTURE SURGE THIS
   MORNING...RH IS EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS
   ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  HAVE INCLUDED PARTS OF THE
   TX/OK PANHANDLE AS IT APPEARS DRYLINE PLACEMENT WILL BE FURTHER E
   THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
   
   ...SRN NM/SRN AZ...
   SOUTH OF THE CRITICAL AREA...MODEL ENSEMBLE IS CONSISTENT IN
   INDICATING SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS TO BE BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. 
   HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CONSEQUENT LOW RH READINGS
   IN THE 5-10 PERCENT RANGE MAY SUPPORT HIGH FIRE DANGER.
   
   ...CA CENTRAL VALLEYS...
   MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW RH WILL EXIST DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MODERATE N-NWLY SURFACE WINDS ARE
   EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT PERSISTENT DRYNESS
   AND LOW RH MAY AGGRAVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 06/07/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 070916
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0416 AM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM DAY 1 TO DAY 2.
    AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST AND EJECT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AT
   THE SURFACE...A PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN FIXED OVER THE
   S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY.  AN
   ATTENDANT DRYLINE FEATURE WILL EXTEND SWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NERN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / MODERATE WINDS / DROUGHT
   
   MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTS A WEAKER UPPER DISTURBANCE /COMPARED TO DAY
   1/ TRAVERSING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  MODEL
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SUGGEST BORDERLINE CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S. AND S-CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS.  AS A RESULT...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WHETHER
   CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 
   NEVERTHELESS...MODERATE LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS /40 KTS AT 500 MB/
   APPEAR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SURFACE
   WINDS.  WITH LOW RH LIKELY ALREADY IN PLACE BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND
   AHEAD OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   APPEAR TO EXIST ATTM ACROSS A RELATIVELY LOCALIZED AREA IN NERN NM.
   
   ..SMITH.. 06/07/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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