Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 250855
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0355 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2008
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL AREA OUTLINE
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A FLAT ZONAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO MOSTLY
   INFLUENCE THE CONUS.  A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER IMPULSES WILL
   TRAVERSE THE NRN STATES WITH A STRONGER TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
   WEST COAST AND BEGINNING TO INFLUENCE THE PACIFIC NW REGION.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY T-STORMS / HIGH TEMPS
   / LOW RH
   
   A GRADUAL SLIGHT PUSH NWD OF HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE /SURFACE TDS
   NEAR 50F DEG AND MODEST PWATS/ HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 24
   HRS ACROSS EXTREME SRN AZ.  THIS SUGGESTS A SLIGHT JAUNT NWD OF
   YESTERDAYS T-STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND NEAR THE AZ BORDER
   IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.  AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING ISOLATED DRY
   T-STORM COVERAGE AND PERHAPS A LOCALIZED SCATTERED COVERAGE AREA
   BEING MET...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SERN AZ/MEXICO BORDER REGION.  THE
   03Z SREF GUIDANCE T-STORM PROBABILITIES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
   LATEST THINKING.  BOTH THE RECENT NAMKF/GFS MODELS INDICATE
   MID-LEVEL MOISTENING /INFERRED ASCENT/ WHICH IMPLIES SOME T-STORM
   POSSIBILITY.  HOT TEMPS/LOW RH SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY WEAK
   WINDS...EXCEPT AROUND T-STORMS WHERE ENHANCED ERRATIC WINDS ARE
   POSSIBLE.  
   
   WHILE TODAYS SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF A DRY
   T-STORM EPISODE...THE PROXIMITY OF MODEST MOISTURE ALONG THE
   INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE PROXIMITY OF A SUBTLE UPPER IMPULSE
   APPEAR TO WARRANT A LOWER-END CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ...SRN-CENTRAL ROCKIES...
   
   ISOLATED T-STORM COVERAGE AGAIN SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LITTLE OVERALL
   CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER SETUP.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT...LEADING TO GUSTY
   ERRATIC WINDS AROUND ANY STORMS IN ADDITION TO THREATS ASSOCIATED
   WITH LIGHTNING. 
   
   ...NERN CA / NRN GREAT BASIN...
   
   MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SUBTLE WEAK UPPER LEVEL 
   DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED OVER NRN CA/SRN OR.  FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
   THIS DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH RETARDED SURFACE HEATING MAY
   AID IN INITIATING A FEW VERY ISOLATED DRY T-STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS
   NERN CA.  HOWEVER...LATEST SREF GUIDANCE/FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
   DOWNWARD TREND.  GIVEN AN EXPECTED MEAGER OVERALL CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT...WILL REFRAIN FROM A CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
   
   ..SMITH.. 06/25/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 250954
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2008
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO DAY 1 WEATHER PATTERN.  A FLAT ZONAL UPPER
   LEVEL RIDGE REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO MOSTLY INFLUENCE THE ERN 2/3RDS
   OF THE CONUS WHEREAS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
   NW/NRN ROCKIES.  IT APPEARS THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND THE THREAT
   FOR ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL EXIST AGAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY T-STORMS / HOT TEMPS /
   LOW RH
   
   POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY /DAY 2/ FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS SERN AZ
   IS SOMEWHAT ASSOCIATED/DEPENDENT ON DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER
   EVOLUTION/OUTCOME.  AS A RESULT...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BASED ON
   SIMILAR MODEL OUTPUT TO DAY 1 /EXPECTED LOCATION OF MASS
   FIELDS--MOISTENING/ DEPICTED IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
   DETERMINISTIC PLAN VIEW.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOIST
   MID-LEVEL PROFILES WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT THEREBY SUPPORTING A
   POTENTIAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED DRY T-STORM THREAT.  AS A RESULT OF
   FLOW ORIENTATION...WOULD FAVOR A NEUTRAL OR SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF
   MOISTURE AND THUNDER CHANCES.  SREF GUIDANCE AND DETERMINISTIC
   FIELDS INDICATE A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF T-STORM PROBABILITIES AS WELL.
    
   THE AREAL OUTLINE MAY NEED TO BE MODIFIED IN LATER OUTLOOK UPDATES
   WHEN NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
   
   ...SRN ROCKIES...
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY/HYBRID T-STORM THREAT MAY EXIST
   ACROSS THE AREA WITH SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ISOLATED COVERAGE TO
   BE POSSIBLE.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT
   SUPPORTING GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AROUND ANY T-STORMS.
   
   ...CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADAS...
   
   LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY
   ISOLATED DRY T-STORM POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...COVERAGE APPEARS LIMITED
   PRECLUDING A CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ..SMITH.. 06/25/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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