Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 260803
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A FLAT ZONAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REGIME WITH UPPER IMPULSES CONFINED
TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOSTLY INFLUENCE THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CONUS WHEREAS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN
ROCKIES. IT APPEARS THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTMS WILL EXIST AGAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN
U.S. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY ISOLATED DRY TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADAS EXTENDING ENE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
...SERN-ERN AZ...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
/TDS 50-NEAR 60F DEG/ HAS SURGED NWD INTO SERN AZ. 00Z/26
TUS/PHOENIX RAOBS SHOWED PWATS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN SERN AZ.
LATEST DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS FURTHER
MOISTENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS A SLUG OF HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE
MOVES NWD. ALL THE ABOVE FAVORS AN EVOLUTION TOWARDS A WET TSTM
MONSOONAL REGIME IN SERN AZ. FURTHER N /LITTLE COLORADO-PUERCO
RIVER VALLEYS/ MORE LIMITED MOISTURE MAY ENABLE TSTM EVOLUTION TO
STAY IN DRY PHASE LONGER. WITH THAT SAID...ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTM
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY TODAY AND THE ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR
LIGHTNING INITIATED FIRE STARTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DISPLAYING
LOWER SURFACE T/TD SPREADS BUT THE INVERTED-V PROFILES SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY TSTMS.
...CENTRAL-SRN ROCKIES/ERN GREAT BASIN...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP--SUPPORTING AN ISOLATED DRY T-STORM THREAT.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT SUPPORTING GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS AROUND ANY T-STORMS.
...CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADAS...
LATEST DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF
VERY ISOLATED DRY T-STORM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...COVERAGE APPEARS
ISOLATED AT BEST...THEREBY PRECLUDING A CRITICAL THREAT.
..SMITH.. 06/26/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 260936
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0436 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE
MOST OF THE CONUS IS INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ALONG THE CA
COAST...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO INFLUENCE NRN
CA AND THE SIERRA NEVADAS WITH THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED DRY TSTM
THREAT. MEANWHILE...THE FIRST EPISODE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD
LINGER AROUND PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S. BRINGING WITH IT THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE.
...ERN-SERN AZ/EXTREME SWRN NM...
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER-LEVEL STEERING INFLUENCES NEAR THE
SWRN U.S. FOR FRIDAY /D2/...EXPECT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND THE THREAT
FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTMS /AGREEMENT WITH LATEST SREF TSTM
PROBABILITIES/ TO EXIST AGAIN. THE LATEST FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
POSSIBLE REDUCTION IN PWAT VALUES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
/D1/...RESULTING IN LOWER PROBABILITIES OF A PRIMARILY WET TSTM
EVENT. THIS ENHANCES CONFIDENCE FOR THE AREA /ESPECIALLY LOCALES
NEAR THE FRINGE OF THE GREATER MOISTURE/ TO EXPERIENCE A DRY TSTM
THREAT. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH LOCATION/MAGNITUDE
OF THE DRY TSTM THREAT WILL BE DEFERRED TO THE NEXT OUTLOOK UPDATE
WHEN NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE AND AN UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL
AREA WILL BE STRONGLY CONSIDERED.
...NRN CA/SIERRA NEVADAS...
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SEEMS TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
PLACEMENT OF UPPER FEATURES. WITH UPPER SYSTEM OFF CA COAST TO BE
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND EXERT SOME
INFLUENCE...EXPECT ISOLATED DRY TSTM COVERAGE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF NRN CA/SIERRA NEVADAS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PERHAPS
ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT IN LOCALIZED
AREAS...PROMOTING A LIMITED DRY TSTM FIRE WEATHER THREAT. LATEST
SREF/MREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS CURRENT THINKING OF OVERALL MARGINAL
COVERAGE...RESULTING IN A NON-CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
..SMITH.. 06/26/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...