Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 260803
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A FLAT ZONAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REGIME WITH UPPER IMPULSES CONFINED
   TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOSTLY INFLUENCE THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
   CONUS WHEREAS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN
   ROCKIES.  IT APPEARS THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND THE THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTMS WILL EXIST AGAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN
   U.S.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY ISOLATED DRY TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADAS EXTENDING ENE INTO THE GREAT
   BASIN AND SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
   
   ...SERN-ERN AZ...
   
   MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   /TDS 50-NEAR 60F DEG/ HAS SURGED NWD INTO SERN AZ.  00Z/26
   TUS/PHOENIX RAOBS SHOWED PWATS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN SERN AZ. 
   LATEST DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS FURTHER
   MOISTENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS A SLUG OF HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE
   MOVES NWD.  ALL THE ABOVE FAVORS AN EVOLUTION TOWARDS A WET TSTM
   MONSOONAL REGIME IN SERN AZ.  FURTHER N /LITTLE COLORADO-PUERCO
   RIVER VALLEYS/ MORE LIMITED MOISTURE MAY ENABLE TSTM EVOLUTION TO
   STAY IN DRY PHASE LONGER.  WITH THAT SAID...ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTM
   COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY TODAY AND THE ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR
   LIGHTNING INITIATED FIRE STARTS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DISPLAYING
   LOWER SURFACE T/TD SPREADS BUT THE INVERTED-V PROFILES SUPPORT THE
   THREAT FOR GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY TSTMS.  
   
   ...CENTRAL-SRN ROCKIES/ERN GREAT BASIN...
     
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP--SUPPORTING AN ISOLATED DRY T-STORM THREAT. 
   STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT SUPPORTING GUSTY
   ERRATIC WINDS AROUND ANY T-STORMS.
     
   ...CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADAS...
     
   LATEST DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF
   VERY ISOLATED DRY T-STORM POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...COVERAGE APPEARS
   ISOLATED AT BEST...THEREBY PRECLUDING A CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ..SMITH.. 06/26/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 260936
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0436 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE
   MOST OF THE CONUS IS INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER RIDGE.  ALONG THE CA
   COAST...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO INFLUENCE NRN
   CA AND THE SIERRA NEVADAS WITH THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED DRY TSTM
   THREAT.  MEANWHILE...THE FIRST EPISODE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD
   LINGER AROUND PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S. BRINGING WITH IT THE THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE.
   
   ...ERN-SERN AZ/EXTREME SWRN NM...
   
   WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER-LEVEL STEERING INFLUENCES NEAR THE
   SWRN U.S. FOR FRIDAY /D2/...EXPECT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND THE THREAT
   FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTMS /AGREEMENT WITH LATEST SREF TSTM
   PROBABILITIES/ TO EXIST AGAIN.  THE LATEST FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
   POSSIBLE REDUCTION IN PWAT VALUES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
   /D1/...RESULTING IN LOWER PROBABILITIES OF A PRIMARILY WET TSTM
   EVENT.  THIS ENHANCES CONFIDENCE FOR THE AREA /ESPECIALLY LOCALES
   NEAR THE FRINGE OF THE GREATER MOISTURE/ TO EXPERIENCE A DRY TSTM
   THREAT.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH LOCATION/MAGNITUDE
   OF THE DRY TSTM THREAT WILL BE DEFERRED TO THE NEXT OUTLOOK UPDATE
   WHEN NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE AND AN UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL
   AREA WILL BE STRONGLY CONSIDERED.
   
   ...NRN CA/SIERRA NEVADAS...
   
   DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SEEMS TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
   PLACEMENT OF UPPER FEATURES.  WITH UPPER SYSTEM OFF CA COAST TO BE
   WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND EXERT SOME
   INFLUENCE...EXPECT ISOLATED DRY TSTM COVERAGE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER
   PARTS OF NRN CA/SIERRA NEVADAS.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PERHAPS
   ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT IN LOCALIZED
   AREAS...PROMOTING A LIMITED DRY TSTM FIRE WEATHER THREAT.  LATEST
   SREF/MREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS CURRENT THINKING OF OVERALL MARGINAL
   COVERAGE...RESULTING IN A NON-CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
   
   ..SMITH.. 06/26/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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