Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 270839
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
   ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.  ALONG THE CA COAST...A CLOSED
   UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO INFLUENCE NRN CA AND THE SIERRA
   NEVADAS WITH THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED DRY TSTM THREAT.
   MEANWHILE...THE FIRST EPISODE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER
   AROUND PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S. BRINGING WITH IT THE THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE.
   
   ...ERN-SERN AZ/EXTREME SWRN NM...
   
   SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE --AS OBSERVED BY 00Z/27 PHOENIX RAOB PWAT
   1.1 INCH AND MORNING TDS IN THE UPPER 40S-NEAR 60F DEG-- AFFIRM THAT
   HIGH QUALITY MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. 
   DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
   DRIER AIR MAY REDUCE PWAT VALUES.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST A TREND
   TOWARDS PERHAPS A MORE "DRY" TSTM SCENARIO.  LATEST SREF GUIDANCE
   SUPPORTS ANTICIPATED ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
   ACROSS SERN/ERN AZ INTO FAR WRN/SWRN NM.  LOCATIONS REMOVED FROM
   HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE /OUTER EDGES TO TSTM THREAT/ MAY EXPERIENCE
   A GREATER PROBABILITY OF DRY TSTM.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z/27
   FGZ-EPZ RAOBS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LARGE SURFACE
   T-TD SPREADS BUT MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES /NEAR 15 PERCENT
   OR HIGHER IN SOME CASES/ MAY REDUCE THE OVERALL THREAT. 
   HOWEVER...REGARDLESS OF TSTM MODE /DRY VS. WET/...THREATS
   /LIGHTNING-GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS/ WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTM.
   
   ...NRN CA/SIERRA NEVADAS...
   
   WITH UPPER SYSTEM OFF CA COAST TO BE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
   DISCUSSION AREA AND EXERT SOME INFLUENCE...EXPECT ISOLATED DRY TSTM
   COVERAGE TO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF NRN CA/SIERRA NEVADAS. 
   FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PERHAPS ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE
   PRESENT IN LOCALIZED AREAS...PROMOTING A LIMITED DRY TSTM FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS/PLAN VIEW MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
   SHOW AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DURING THE
   DAYTIME...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE OTHERWISE MEAGER THUNDER/INSTABILITY
   POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA.  LATEST SREF/MREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS CURRENT
   THINKING OF OVERALL MARGINAL COVERAGE...RESULTING IN A NON-CRITICAL
   DESIGNATION.
   
   ..SMITH.. 06/27/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 270958
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0458 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN CA / SIERRA NEVADAS / SRN
   OREGON...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE
   AN UPPER RIDGE WILL INFLUENCE PARTS OF THE WRN CONUS.  MONSOONAL
   MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN
   U.S.  A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY
   SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. 
   MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL AID IN WHAT
   APPEARS TO BE SATURDAYS /D2/ MOST SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN
   THE FORM OF A DRY TSTM EPISODE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN CA / SIERRA
   NEVADAS / SRN OREGON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN CA / SIERRA NEVADAS /SRN
   OREGON...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY TSTMS / HOT TEMPS / LOW RH / DROUGHT
   
   CONFIDENCE IS MODESTLY HIGH FOR A POTENTIAL DRY TSTM EVENT ON
   SATURDAY ACROSS NRN CA /SCATTERED COVERAGE/ AND POSSIBLY SRN OREGON
   /ISOLATED-SCATTERED/...AND PERHAPS EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SIERRAS
   /ISOLATED-SCATTERED/.  LATEST DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT CONSENSUS SHOWS
   MID-LEVEL MOISTENING...IMPLYING MOIST ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION
   PROBABLY THE RESULT OF MODELED CONVECTIVE PROCESSES.  MODEL FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS DEPICT WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...WHICH
   WOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE WIND POTENTIAL /ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS APPEAR
   TO BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH ANY TSTMS/.  ANTICIPATING PRIMARY
   TSTM MODE TO REMAIN "DRY" DESPITE FCST SOUNDINGS ALLUDING TOWARDS
   MORE OF A "HYBRID-WET" TSTM MODE /0.75-1.00 INCH PWATS/.  SURFACE
   TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LARGE...WITH MIN RH
   VALUES LIKELY REMAINING AOB 15-20 PERCENT.
   
   ...SRN ROCKIES / PARTS OF SERN AZ-SWRN NM...
   
   DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FAVORING A TREND TOWARDS
   TSTM POTENTIAL MOVING FURTHER E INTO PARTS OF NM AND SRN CO...IN
   ADDITION TO REMAINING IN ERN/SERN AZ.  MODEL CONSENSUS PLAN VIEW
   DEPICTS MOISTURE PLUME MIGRATING SLIGHTLY EWD...SUPPORTING THE ABOVE
   MENTIONED SCENARIO.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
   MID-LEVEL MOIST PROFILES AND LARGE SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT
   SPREADS...WITH AREAS HAVING THE LOWEST RH /BELOW 15 PERCENT/ MOST
   LIKELY ACROSS SERN/ERN AZ INTO SWRN/WRN NM.  PWAT VALUES SHOWN IN
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE OF A "DRY" TSTM THREAT AS OPPOSED TO
   A "WET" MODE.  ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
   NUMEROUS TSTM COVERAGE MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF NM.  AS A
   RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A POSSIBLE DRY TSTM CRITICAL
   AREA...BUT WILL DEFER TO NEXT OUTLOOK UPDATE FOR A POSSIBLE CRITICAL
   UPGRADE.
   
   ..SMITH.. 06/27/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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