Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 270839
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. ALONG THE CA COAST...A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO INFLUENCE NRN CA AND THE SIERRA
NEVADAS WITH THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED DRY TSTM THREAT.
MEANWHILE...THE FIRST EPISODE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER
AROUND PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S. BRINGING WITH IT THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE.
...ERN-SERN AZ/EXTREME SWRN NM...
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE --AS OBSERVED BY 00Z/27 PHOENIX RAOB PWAT
1.1 INCH AND MORNING TDS IN THE UPPER 40S-NEAR 60F DEG-- AFFIRM THAT
HIGH QUALITY MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
DRIER AIR MAY REDUCE PWAT VALUES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A TREND
TOWARDS PERHAPS A MORE "DRY" TSTM SCENARIO. LATEST SREF GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS ANTICIPATED ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SERN/ERN AZ INTO FAR WRN/SWRN NM. LOCATIONS REMOVED FROM
HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE /OUTER EDGES TO TSTM THREAT/ MAY EXPERIENCE
A GREATER PROBABILITY OF DRY TSTM. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z/27
FGZ-EPZ RAOBS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LARGE SURFACE
T-TD SPREADS BUT MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES /NEAR 15 PERCENT
OR HIGHER IN SOME CASES/ MAY REDUCE THE OVERALL THREAT.
HOWEVER...REGARDLESS OF TSTM MODE /DRY VS. WET/...THREATS
/LIGHTNING-GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS/ WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTM.
...NRN CA/SIERRA NEVADAS...
WITH UPPER SYSTEM OFF CA COAST TO BE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA AND EXERT SOME INFLUENCE...EXPECT ISOLATED DRY TSTM
COVERAGE TO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF NRN CA/SIERRA NEVADAS.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PERHAPS ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE
PRESENT IN LOCALIZED AREAS...PROMOTING A LIMITED DRY TSTM FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/PLAN VIEW MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DURING THE
DAYTIME...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE OTHERWISE MEAGER THUNDER/INSTABILITY
POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA. LATEST SREF/MREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS CURRENT
THINKING OF OVERALL MARGINAL COVERAGE...RESULTING IN A NON-CRITICAL
DESIGNATION.
..SMITH.. 06/27/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 270958
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN CA / SIERRA NEVADAS / SRN
OREGON...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL INFLUENCE PARTS OF THE WRN CONUS. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN
U.S. A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY
SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL AID IN WHAT
APPEARS TO BE SATURDAYS /D2/ MOST SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN
THE FORM OF A DRY TSTM EPISODE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN CA / SIERRA
NEVADAS / SRN OREGON.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN CA / SIERRA NEVADAS /SRN
OREGON...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY TSTMS / HOT TEMPS / LOW RH / DROUGHT
CONFIDENCE IS MODESTLY HIGH FOR A POTENTIAL DRY TSTM EVENT ON
SATURDAY ACROSS NRN CA /SCATTERED COVERAGE/ AND POSSIBLY SRN OREGON
/ISOLATED-SCATTERED/...AND PERHAPS EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SIERRAS
/ISOLATED-SCATTERED/. LATEST DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT CONSENSUS SHOWS
MID-LEVEL MOISTENING...IMPLYING MOIST ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION
PROBABLY THE RESULT OF MODELED CONVECTIVE PROCESSES. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE WIND POTENTIAL /ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS APPEAR
TO BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH ANY TSTMS/. ANTICIPATING PRIMARY
TSTM MODE TO REMAIN "DRY" DESPITE FCST SOUNDINGS ALLUDING TOWARDS
MORE OF A "HYBRID-WET" TSTM MODE /0.75-1.00 INCH PWATS/. SURFACE
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LARGE...WITH MIN RH
VALUES LIKELY REMAINING AOB 15-20 PERCENT.
...SRN ROCKIES / PARTS OF SERN AZ-SWRN NM...
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FAVORING A TREND TOWARDS
TSTM POTENTIAL MOVING FURTHER E INTO PARTS OF NM AND SRN CO...IN
ADDITION TO REMAINING IN ERN/SERN AZ. MODEL CONSENSUS PLAN VIEW
DEPICTS MOISTURE PLUME MIGRATING SLIGHTLY EWD...SUPPORTING THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SCENARIO. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOIST PROFILES AND LARGE SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS...WITH AREAS HAVING THE LOWEST RH /BELOW 15 PERCENT/ MOST
LIKELY ACROSS SERN/ERN AZ INTO SWRN/WRN NM. PWAT VALUES SHOWN IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE OF A "DRY" TSTM THREAT AS OPPOSED TO
A "WET" MODE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
NUMEROUS TSTM COVERAGE MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF NM. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A POSSIBLE DRY TSTM CRITICAL
AREA...BUT WILL DEFER TO NEXT OUTLOOK UPDATE FOR A POSSIBLE CRITICAL
UPGRADE.
..SMITH.. 06/27/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...