Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 280916
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0416 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN ROCKIES NWWD
TO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE OFF THE SRN CA
COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED W/E-ORIENTED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT NWD BECOME CENTERED OVER NRN CA BY
29/00Z.
...NRN CA/FAR SWRN ORE...
A DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH SEVERAL COMPETING FACTORS IN REGARD TO
SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF DRY TSTMS LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WEAK FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING/INCREASED BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTENING SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY OVER THE SRN CASCADES AND NRN SIERRAS. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INITIAL CONVECTION WILL BE OF A
HIGH-BASED NATURE SUPPORTING AT LEAST A FEW DRY TSTMS.
HOWEVER...TRANSITION TO A MIXED WET MODE MAY ENSUE RELATIVELY
QUICKLY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PW VALUES HAVE INCREASED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AS DEPICTED IN REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
28/00Z RAOBS...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PER LATEST
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. PW VALUES WILL LIKELY BE AOA 0.50 IN FROM
THE SIERRA CREST WWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST
STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST CELLS SHOULD HAVE A MODEST NWWD PROPAGATION
INTO A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THUS...OVERALL COVERAGE AND DURATION
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A CRITICAL DRY TSTM
AREA.
...MOGOLLON RIM OF AZ INTO W-CNTRL/SWRN NM...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN DEEPLY-MIXED THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ALONG AND S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND
ERRATIC...VERY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS SHOULD LEAD TO A
FEW DRY TSTMS.
..GRAMS.. 06/28/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 281008
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PIVOT SLOWLY EWD BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE ROCKIES AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CA COAST SHOULD EVOLVE
INTO AN OPEN WAVE WITH A W/E-ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS WEAKENING AS IT
LIFTS N FROM NRN CA INTO ORE.
...CNTRL/ERN ORE ALONG AND E OF THE CASCADES TO THE NRN SIERRAS OF
NERN CA...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE SHIFTING NWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
VERY DEEPLY MIXED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES E OF THE CASCADES AND
SIERRAS WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DRY TSTM POTENTIAL. UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MITIGATES A
CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION ATTM.
...ERN AZ TO THE FOUR CORNERS...
A FEW DRY TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WRN FRINGE OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING WWD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TSTM COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
..GRAMS.. 06/28/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...