Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 280916
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0416 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN ROCKIES NWWD
   TO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE OFF THE SRN CA
   COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED W/E-ORIENTED
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT NWD BECOME CENTERED OVER NRN CA BY
   29/00Z.
   
   ...NRN CA/FAR SWRN ORE...
   A DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH SEVERAL COMPETING FACTORS IN REGARD TO
   SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF DRY TSTMS LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
   WEAK FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   AND COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING/INCREASED BOUNDARY-LAYER
   MOISTENING SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY OVER THE SRN CASCADES AND NRN SIERRAS. MODEL
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INITIAL CONVECTION WILL BE OF A
   HIGH-BASED NATURE SUPPORTING AT LEAST A FEW DRY TSTMS.
   HOWEVER...TRANSITION TO A MIXED WET MODE MAY ENSUE RELATIVELY
   QUICKLY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PW VALUES HAVE INCREASED OVER THE
   PAST 24 HOURS AS DEPICTED IN REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
   28/00Z RAOBS...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PER LATEST
   SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. PW VALUES WILL LIKELY BE AOA 0.50 IN FROM
   THE SIERRA CREST WWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST
   STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST CELLS SHOULD HAVE A MODEST NWWD PROPAGATION
   INTO A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THUS...OVERALL COVERAGE AND DURATION
   DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A CRITICAL DRY TSTM
   AREA.
   
   ...MOGOLLON RIM OF AZ INTO W-CNTRL/SWRN NM...
   STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN DEEPLY-MIXED THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES ALONG AND S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND
   ERRATIC...VERY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS SHOULD LEAD TO A
   FEW DRY TSTMS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/28/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 281008
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0508 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PIVOT SLOWLY EWD BECOMING CENTERED
   OVER THE ROCKIES AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
   MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CA COAST SHOULD EVOLVE
   INTO AN OPEN WAVE WITH A W/E-ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS WEAKENING AS IT
   LIFTS N FROM NRN CA INTO ORE.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN ORE ALONG AND E OF THE CASCADES TO THE NRN SIERRAS OF
   NERN CA...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
   WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE SHIFTING NWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
   VERY DEEPLY MIXED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES E OF THE CASCADES AND
   SIERRAS WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DRY TSTM POTENTIAL. UNCERTAINTY
   WITH REGARDS TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MITIGATES A
   CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION ATTM.
   
   ...ERN AZ TO THE FOUR CORNERS...
   A FEW DRY TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WRN FRINGE OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE ADVECTING WWD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TSTM COVERAGE
   SHOULD BE LIMITED BY PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/28/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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