Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 290858
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PIVOT SLOWLY EWD BECOMING CENTERED
   OVER THE ROCKIES AS A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER/MID-MS
   RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST
   WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE LIFTING NWD ALONG
   THE NRN CA AND ORE COAST AND A MORE POTENT IMPULSE SHIFTING EWD
   TOWARDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN ORE TO NERN CA/NWRN NV...
   LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER
   HIGHER TERRAIN PRIMARILY THROUGH OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DAYTIME
   HEATING...BUT ALSO AIDED BY A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE SHIFTING NWD.
   GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS SHOULD BE FOUND PRIMARILY OVER THE
   CASCADES WHERE MORE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT
   SHOULD LIE. FORECAST STORM MOVEMENT TO THE N/NW WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL
   FOR SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE WITHIN A DEEPLY-MIXED ENVIRONMENT FARTHER
   E. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS SHOULD
   DEVELOP FROM THE NRN SIERRAS INTO NWRN NV/ERN ORE WITH ATTENDANT
   THREATS OF DRY LIGHTNING IGNITIONS AND GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
   
   ...CNTRL AND ERN AZ/UT...
   A COLD FRONT REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SAT EVENING HAS
   RESULTED IN LOW-LEVEL E/SELY ADVECTION OF SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE
   /MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS/ ACROSS MUCH OF NM. ON
   THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS SURGE...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
   FORCING WILL RESULT IN HIGH-BASED TSTMS WITH DEEPLY-MIXED INVERTED-V
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. THE PROXIMITY OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
   AXIS WILL LIMIT STORM MOTION AND OVERALL DRY TSTM COVERAGE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/29/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 290959
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0459 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008
   
   VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A RIDGE
   CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. A SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH OFF THE W COAST WILL SHIFT INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC
   NW...BECOMING NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS IT IMPINGES UPON STOUT RIDGE.
   
   ...ERN ORE/SWRN ID/NRN NV...
   ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE ERN PACIFIC...THEY DIFFER WITH THE
   STRENGTH OF PRIMARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM
   MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A
   SUBSTANTIAL LACK OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH THE TROUGH...FURTHER QUESTIONING THE ADVECTION/DEVELOPMENT OF
   MORE ROBUST HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG
   DIURNAL HEATING AND HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH SHOULD AID
   IN AT LEAST ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS FORMING
   OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEPLY MIXED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
   SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING IGNITIONS AND GUSTY/ERRATIC
   WINDS.
   
   ...WRN PORTION OF THE MOGOLLON RIM IN CNTRL AZ TO CNTRL/ERN UT...
   ON THE WRN EXTENT OF SEASONABLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG
   DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN HIGH-BASED
   TSTMS WITH DEEPLY-MIXED INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. AS ON DAY
   1...THE PROXIMITY OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD LIMIT STORM
   MOTION AND OVERALL DRY TSTM COVERAGE.
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN NV...
   S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF
   THE ERN PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN
   MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS MAY
   BRIEFLY REACH 20 MPH WITH RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT AT PEAK
   HEATING.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/29/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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