Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 010838
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CDT TUE JUL 01 2008
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL DEAMPLIFY THIS
PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NWRN NV/SERN ORE SLOWLY
SHIFTS NEWD TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL MEANDER S/SEWD...WHILE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM W OF HUDSON BAY ACROSS S-CNTRL
CANADA.
...CNTRL/ERN UT TO AZ MOGOLLON RIM...
DIURNAL HEATING WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS
DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. GPS PW DATA AND 01/00Z REGIONAL
RAOBS CONFIRM GRADUAL TROPOSPHERIC MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST 48 HOURS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST...WITH PW VALUES NOW
APPROACHING 0.75 INCHES. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED WEAK
FLOW REGIME OWING TO MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...SUGGESTS OVERALL
DRY TSTM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
...NERN/E-CNTRL CO TO NWRN KS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT
RANGE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE. A FEW TSTMS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE ARCING NEWD
FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT AND DEEPLY-MIXED
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. HOWEVER...MODEST MEAN FLOW AND WEAKLY-FORCED
ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DRY TSTM COVERAGE.
...SWRN KS/OK PANHANDLE...
ALTHOUGH DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE LLJ WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING...MODERATE S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH
SHOULD BE COMMON. DESPITE CURRENT AND UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S/50S...HIGH INSOLATION SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO BETWEEN 15
AND 20 PERCENT AT PEAK HEATING...LEADING TO A SHORT-DURATION
MARGINAL THREAT.
...ERN SLOPES OF WA CASCADES/WRN COLUMBIA BASIN...
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE INSISTENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN WARM TO
AROUND 100 WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING INVERTED-V TYPE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...REMNANT CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH BREEDS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE DEGREE OF HEATING TODAY. IN ANY CASE...GREATER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /WITH PW VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH/ SUGGEST DRY
TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE MARGINAL WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..GRAMS.. 07/01/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 011000
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 AM CDT TUE JUL 01 2008
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER S-CNTRL CANADA WILL PROGRESS SEWD TO
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY THU. ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
MARCH SWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND CNTRL PLAINS. MID/UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL TOP WRN CONUS RIDGE AXIS AND
SHOULD TRACK SEWD WITHIN MODEST NWLY FLOW REGIME. IN ITS
WAKE...RIDGE WILL BUILD AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
E/NEWD IN THE NERN PACIFIC.
...LEE OF CO ROCKIES...
ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TUE
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY PROGRESSING SEWD ONTO THE IMMEDIATE HIGH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT...PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
STRENGTHEN MOIST ELY UPSLOPE FLOW...QUICKLY CURTAILING DRY TSTM
POTENTIAL.
...FOUR CORNERS...
BUILDING OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL WRN CONUS RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP
SUPPRESS TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN. ON THE WRN
FRINGE OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...HIGH-BASED TSTMS SHOULD
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED WITH CONTINUED MODEST MEAN FLOW AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE FORCING.
...NWRN GREAT BASIN...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
E/NEWD. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT ROBUST MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE PACIFIC NW...MAINTAINING DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE CASCADES. FARTHER E/SE...WHERE DEEPLY-MIXED THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED...MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
..GRAMS.. 07/01/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...