Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 010838
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 AM CDT TUE JUL 01 2008
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL DEAMPLIFY THIS
   PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NWRN NV/SERN ORE SLOWLY
   SHIFTS NEWD TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER
   THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL MEANDER S/SEWD...WHILE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM W OF HUDSON BAY ACROSS S-CNTRL
   CANADA.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN UT TO AZ MOGOLLON RIM...
   DIURNAL HEATING WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS
   DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. GPS PW DATA AND 01/00Z REGIONAL
   RAOBS CONFIRM GRADUAL TROPOSPHERIC MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
   PAST 48 HOURS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST...WITH PW VALUES NOW
   APPROACHING 0.75 INCHES. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED WEAK
   FLOW REGIME OWING TO MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...SUGGESTS OVERALL
   DRY TSTM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
   
   ...NERN/E-CNTRL CO TO NWRN KS...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT
   RANGE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE. A FEW TSTMS
   MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE ARCING NEWD
   FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S WILL LIKELY
   RESULT IN RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT AND DEEPLY-MIXED
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. HOWEVER...MODEST MEAN FLOW AND WEAKLY-FORCED
   ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DRY TSTM COVERAGE.
   
   ...SWRN KS/OK PANHANDLE...
   ALTHOUGH DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE LLJ WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
   MORNING...MODERATE S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
   THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH
   SHOULD BE COMMON. DESPITE CURRENT AND UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS IN
   THE 40S/50S...HIGH INSOLATION SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING
   INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO BETWEEN 15
   AND 20 PERCENT AT PEAK HEATING...LEADING TO A SHORT-DURATION
   MARGINAL THREAT.
   
   ...ERN SLOPES OF WA CASCADES/WRN COLUMBIA BASIN...
   MODEL GUIDANCE ARE INSISTENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN WARM TO
   AROUND 100 WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING INVERTED-V TYPE
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...REMNANT CONVECTIVE
   DEBRIS AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH BREEDS SOME
   UNCERTAINTY TO THE DEGREE OF HEATING TODAY. IN ANY CASE...GREATER
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /WITH PW VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH/ SUGGEST DRY
   TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE MARGINAL WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/01/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 011000
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0500 AM CDT TUE JUL 01 2008
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER S-CNTRL CANADA WILL PROGRESS SEWD TO
   THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY THU. ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
   MARCH SWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND CNTRL PLAINS. MID/UPPER-LEVEL
   IMPULSE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL TOP WRN CONUS RIDGE AXIS AND
   SHOULD TRACK SEWD WITHIN MODEST NWLY FLOW REGIME. IN ITS
   WAKE...RIDGE WILL BUILD AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
   E/NEWD IN THE NERN PACIFIC.
   
   ...LEE OF CO ROCKIES...
   ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TUE
   AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY PROGRESSING SEWD ONTO THE IMMEDIATE HIGH
   PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH RH
   VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT...PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
   STRENGTHEN MOIST ELY UPSLOPE FLOW...QUICKLY CURTAILING DRY TSTM
   POTENTIAL.
   
   ...FOUR CORNERS...
   BUILDING OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL WRN CONUS RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP
   SUPPRESS TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN. ON THE WRN
   FRINGE OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...HIGH-BASED TSTMS SHOULD
   AGAIN DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
   ISOLATED WITH CONTINUED MODEST MEAN FLOW AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING.
   
   ...NWRN GREAT BASIN...
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
   E/NEWD. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT ROBUST MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
   THE PACIFIC NW...MAINTAINING DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY
   ACROSS THE CASCADES. FARTHER E/SE...WHERE DEEPLY-MIXED THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED...MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING WILL
   LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/01/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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