Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 111055
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0555 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   CORRECTED TO ADD CRITICAL AREA HEADER TO DISCUSSION
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SE MT/NE WY/WRN DAKOTAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY/DEEPEN FROM THE
   NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHERN
   PORTIONS OF ND/MN INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
   QUICKLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN DURING THE DAY.
   OTHERWISE...PROXIMITY OF THE WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE WILL
   CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HOT TEMPERATURES WITH LOW RH VALUES ACROSS
   MUCH OF INTERIOR CA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SE MT/NE WY/WRN DAKOTAS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
   
   ...EASTERN PORTIONS OF MT/WY INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS...
   AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MID/UPPER JET /WITH 70-80 KT WINDS AT 500 MB/
   WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER MT/WY INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY...WITH STRONG
   WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF A MAINLY
   DRY COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH ARE LIKELY
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 45-50 MPH.
   PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MT AND NORTHERN ND WILL BE SUBJECT TO MORE
   CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR SOME PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHER RH
   VALUES...AND THUS CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LESS PROBABLE IN
   THESE LOCATIONS. WHILE SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED RELATIVELY RECENT
   PRECIPITATION AND FUELS ARE SEEMINGLY MARGINAL IN SOME LOCALES
   WITHIN THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EXPECTED
   WIND SPEEDS AND DRYING NATURE OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS APPEARS TO
   WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE RISK.
   
   ...INTERIOR SOUTHERN CA/SIERRAS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NV/UT...
   PERSISTENT MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO
   CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
   SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY. ON THE FRINGE OF THE RICHER
   MOISTURE...ISOLATED MAINLY DRY TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA
   SIERRAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NV/SOUTHERN UT. WHILE SOME NEW FIRE STARTS
   ARE A POSSIBILITY...THE EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE SUGGESTS A
   CRITICAL AREA FOR SCATTERED DRY TSTMS IS NOT WARRANTED.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/11/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 111100
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0600 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   CORRECTED TO ADD CRITICAL AREA HEADER TO DISCUSSION
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR ERN MT/DAKOTAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT
   LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
   SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/OHIO VALLEY
   AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN PREVALENT
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. OWING TO MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND SOMEWHAT
   COOLER THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON
   TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR CA AS COMPARED TO THE PAST
   SEVERAL DAYS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR ERN MT/DAKOTAS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
   
   ...FAR EASTERN MT/DAKOTAS...
   IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION...STRONG DEEP LAYER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FIELDS WILL
   REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
   BENEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WHILE WIND SPEEDS
   SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS FRIDAY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30
   MPH WITH 40+ MPH GUSTS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. SOME
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
   PRIOR 24-48 HOURS AND THE NATURE OF THE FUELS ACROSS THE
   REGION...BUT STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND A SECOND DAY OF POST-FRONTAL
   DRYING APPEARS TO WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE RISK FOR SATURDAY FROM FAR
   EASTERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
   
   ...INTERIOR SOUTHERN CA/CA SIERRAS AND SOUTHERN NV/SOUTHERN UT...
   SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...ANOTHER BOUT OF ISOLATED MAINLY DRY TSTMS ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN CA/CA SIERRAS AND
   SOUTHERN NV/SOUTHERN UT. WHILE NEW FIRE STARTS ARE
   POSSIBLE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE EXPECTED ISOLATED TSTM
   COVERAGE AND/OR SUFFICIENTLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
   PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED DRY TSTM OUTLOOK.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/11/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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