Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 120849
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR WRN-SWRN ND...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ONTARIO
WITH ACCOMPANYING STRONG NWLY FLOW FIELDS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD
DURING THE PERIOD AND STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...WITH COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE. IT APPEARS A SMALL
REGIONALIZED THREAT AREA FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE MET OVER
PARTS OF WRN-SWRN ND WHERE LOW RH/STRONG WINDS OVERLAP FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL INFLUENCE
PARTS OF THE WEST WITH ISOLATED DRY TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SIERRAS/SRN GREAT BASIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGHER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR WRN-SWRN ND...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST BORDERLINE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS SATURDAY. WITH THE UPPER FLOW
FIELDS LIKELY DECREASING DURING THE PERIOD...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND AT LEAST
SUSTAINED AT 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. ONE LIMITING FACTOR
APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL MIN RH...WHICH ENSEMBLES SUGGEST TO BE IN THE
LOWER 20S OR HIGHER. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS TO THE
OVERALL THREAT...DRY CONDITIONS/LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL IN ADDITION
TO THE JUXTAPOSITION OF WHERE STRONG WINDS/LOW RH SEEM THE MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR...SEEM TO SUPPORT A CRITICAL DELINEATION.
...PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...
LESS SUPPORTIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY SURROUNDING THE
CRITICAL AREA. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PERHAPS
LOCALIZED/SHORT DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY EXIST...BUT IT
APPEARS A SEE TEXT DELINEATION IS WARRANTED DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE/PROBABILITY OF CRITICAL RH /AOB 20-25 PERCENT/
OVERLAPPING WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
PERIOD.
...INTERIOR SOUTHERN CA/CA SIERRAS AND SOUTHERN NV/SOUTHERN UT...
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST ISOLATED MAINLY
DRY TSTMS TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN CA/CA
SIERRAS AND SOUTHERN NV/SOUTHERN UT. WHILE NEW FIRE STARTS ARE
POSSIBLE...COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND/OR
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED DRY TSTM OUTLOOK.
..SMITH.. 07/12/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 120941
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE GRT LAKES/NERN STATES AS AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE ROCKIES WWD. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESIDE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SWRN U.S. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY TSTMS ASSOCIATED ON THE
MOISTURE PERIPHERY.
...PARTS OF THE SIERRAS/GREAT BASIN...
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY DRIFT NWWD
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL CA/SIERRAS/CENTRAL NV-UT...IN TURN SUPPORTING
AN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED DRY TSTM THREAT ON THE PERIPHERY OF
GREATER MONSOONAL MOISTURE. SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT E-SELY
FLOW IN THE 700-500MB LAYER...AND THIS FLOW TRAJECTORY WOULD AID IN
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NWWD. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF TSTMS OVER THIS REGION /COMPARED TO
DAY 1/. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON AREAL COVERAGE OF DRY TSTMS DUE TO
RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS /AOA 0.75 INCH/ AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE
EXTENT...THEREBY PRECLUDING AN OUTLOOKED AREA.
..SMITH.. 07/12/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...