Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 120849
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR WRN-SWRN ND...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ONTARIO
   WITH ACCOMPANYING STRONG NWLY FLOW FIELDS ACROSS THE UPPER
   MIDWEST/NRN PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD
   DURING THE PERIOD AND STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...WITH COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE.  IT APPEARS A SMALL
   REGIONALIZED THREAT AREA FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE MET OVER
   PARTS OF WRN-SWRN ND WHERE LOW RH/STRONG WINDS OVERLAP FOR A
   SUBSTANTIAL PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL INFLUENCE
   PARTS OF THE WEST WITH ISOLATED DRY TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
   SIERRAS/SRN GREAT BASIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGHER MONSOONAL
   MOISTURE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR WRN-SWRN ND...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
   
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST BORDERLINE CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS SATURDAY.  WITH THE UPPER FLOW
   FIELDS LIKELY DECREASING DURING THE PERIOD...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND AT LEAST
   SUSTAINED AT 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH.  ONE LIMITING FACTOR
   APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL MIN RH...WHICH ENSEMBLES SUGGEST TO BE IN THE
   LOWER 20S OR HIGHER.  DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS TO THE
   OVERALL THREAT...DRY CONDITIONS/LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL IN ADDITION
   TO THE JUXTAPOSITION OF WHERE STRONG WINDS/LOW RH SEEM THE MOST
   LIKELY TO OCCUR...SEEM TO SUPPORT A CRITICAL DELINEATION.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...
   
   LESS SUPPORTIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY SURROUNDING THE
   CRITICAL AREA.  THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PERHAPS
   LOCALIZED/SHORT DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY EXIST...BUT IT
   APPEARS A SEE TEXT DELINEATION IS WARRANTED DUE TO LOWER
   CONFIDENCE/PROBABILITY OF CRITICAL RH /AOB 20-25 PERCENT/
   OVERLAPPING WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
   PERIOD.
   
   ...INTERIOR SOUTHERN CA/CA SIERRAS AND SOUTHERN NV/SOUTHERN UT...
   
   LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST ISOLATED MAINLY
   DRY TSTMS TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN CA/CA
   SIERRAS AND SOUTHERN NV/SOUTHERN UT.  WHILE NEW FIRE STARTS ARE
   POSSIBLE...COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND/OR
   SUFFICIENTLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
   PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED DRY TSTM OUTLOOK.
   
   ..SMITH.. 07/12/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 120941
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0441 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE GRT LAKES/NERN STATES AS AN
   UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE ROCKIES WWD.  IN THE
   LOWER LEVELS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESIDE ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SWRN U.S. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY TSTMS ASSOCIATED ON THE
   MOISTURE PERIPHERY.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE SIERRAS/GREAT BASIN...
   
   DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY DRIFT NWWD
   OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL CA/SIERRAS/CENTRAL NV-UT...IN TURN SUPPORTING
   AN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED DRY TSTM THREAT ON THE PERIPHERY OF
   GREATER MONSOONAL MOISTURE.  SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT E-SELY
   FLOW IN THE 700-500MB LAYER...AND THIS FLOW TRAJECTORY WOULD AID IN
   TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NWWD.  LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
   SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF TSTMS OVER THIS REGION /COMPARED TO
   DAY 1/.  UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON AREAL COVERAGE OF DRY TSTMS DUE TO
   RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS /AOA 0.75 INCH/ AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE
   EXTENT...THEREBY PRECLUDING AN OUTLOOKED AREA.
   
   ..SMITH.. 07/12/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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