Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 130716
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG 500MB CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH
A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN STATES. IT APPEARS THAT A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SRN CA ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER
PARTS OF THE SRN CA DESERTS YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MEANDER OVER THE REGION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SAMPLED BY 00Z/13 SWRN U.S. RAOBS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. AS
A RESULT...ISOLATED DRY TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE MOISTURE PERIPHERY
MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRAS AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN.
...PARTS OF THE SIERRAS/GREAT BASIN...
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH THE MOISTURE PERIPHERY PERHAPS
EXPANDING SLGTLY NWWD OVER THE SIERRAS INTO NRN CA AND OVER
N-CENTRAL NV. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT/SRN NV WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION
BY SERVING AS ONE OF THE FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM
COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN SIERRAS WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE NEAR
AND JUST NORTH OF LAKE TAHOE EXTENDING EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT /PWATS AOB 0.5 INCH/ SUGGESTING DRY TSTMS MAY PREDOMINATE
INITIALLY ON THE FRINGE OF GREATER MOISTURE. MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE WITH A POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO WET TSTMS PRECLUDES A
CRITICAL AREA.
..SMITH.. 07/13/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 130911
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0411 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FLAT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN STATES WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
GREAT BASIN/SWRN U.S. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD OVER
THE SRN PARTS OF THE WRN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND INFLUENCE PARTS OF
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS /MT/. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. REGION. AS A RESULT
ISOLATED DRY TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ON THE MOISTURE
PERIPHERY MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRAS AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN.
SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS/LOW RH IN N-CENTRAL MT BUT
NON-VOLATILE FUELS /PER COORDINATION WITH LOCAL OFFICE/ WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT.
...PARTS OF THE SIERRAS/GREAT BASIN...
SIMILAR SCENARIO MONDAY /D2/ COMPARED TO SUNDAY /D1/ WITH LITTLE
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE REGION. DRY TSTM POTENTIAL /MAINLY
ISOLATED/ ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDENT PERIPHERAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY
CONTINUE OVER THE SIERRAS INTO NRN CA AND OVER N-CENTRAL NV/UT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERTOP A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PWATS AOB 0.50 INCH. THIS AT LEAST IMPLIES
TSTMS TO INITIALLY BE DRY...POSING FIRE START HAZARDS WITH ANY
LIGHTNING STRIKES. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE
CHANGE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE /ISOLATED/...THEREBY PRECLUDING AN
ENHANCED THREAT.
..SMITH.. 07/13/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...