Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 130716
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG 500MB CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH
   A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN STATES.  IT APPEARS THAT A
   WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SRN CA ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER
   PARTS OF THE SRN CA DESERTS YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
   MEANDER OVER THE REGION.  IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
   SAMPLED BY 00Z/13 SWRN U.S. RAOBS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. AS
   A RESULT...ISOLATED DRY TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE MOISTURE PERIPHERY
   MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRAS AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE SIERRAS/GREAT BASIN...
   
   DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
   REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH THE MOISTURE PERIPHERY PERHAPS
   EXPANDING SLGTLY NWWD OVER THE SIERRAS INTO NRN CA AND OVER
   N-CENTRAL NV.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
   OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT/SRN NV WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION
   BY SERVING AS ONE OF THE FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   TODAY.  LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM
   COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN SIERRAS WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE NEAR
   AND JUST NORTH OF LAKE TAHOE EXTENDING EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. 
   MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   BE PRESENT /PWATS AOB 0.5 INCH/ SUGGESTING DRY TSTMS MAY PREDOMINATE
   INITIALLY ON THE FRINGE OF GREATER MOISTURE.  MAINLY ISOLATED
   COVERAGE WITH A POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO WET TSTMS PRECLUDES A
   CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ..SMITH.. 07/13/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 130911
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0411 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   FLAT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN STATES WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
   GREAT BASIN/SWRN U.S.  AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD OVER
   THE SRN PARTS OF THE WRN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND INFLUENCE PARTS OF
   THE NRN HIGH PLAINS /MT/.  IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
   WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. REGION.  AS A RESULT
   ISOLATED DRY TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ON THE MOISTURE
   PERIPHERY MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRAS AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN. 
   SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS/LOW RH IN N-CENTRAL MT BUT
   NON-VOLATILE FUELS /PER COORDINATION WITH LOCAL OFFICE/ WILL LIKELY
   LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE SIERRAS/GREAT BASIN...
     
   SIMILAR SCENARIO MONDAY /D2/ COMPARED TO SUNDAY /D1/ WITH LITTLE
   OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE REGION.  DRY TSTM POTENTIAL /MAINLY
   ISOLATED/ ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDENT PERIPHERAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY
   CONTINUE OVER THE SIERRAS INTO NRN CA AND OVER N-CENTRAL NV/UT. 
   MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERTOP A RELATIVELY DRY
   BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PWATS AOB 0.50 INCH.  THIS AT LEAST IMPLIES
   TSTMS TO INITIALLY BE DRY...POSING FIRE START HAZARDS WITH ANY
   LIGHTNING STRIKES.  HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE
   CHANGE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE /ISOLATED/...THEREBY PRECLUDING AN
   ENHANCED THREAT.
   
   ..SMITH.. 07/13/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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