Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 140743
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2008
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN
   STATES WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO STRONGLY INFLUENCE MOST OF THE
   GREAT BASIN/SWRN U.S.  AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD
   TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW/SRN BC WITH IT PERHAPS WEAKLY INFLUENCING
   PARTS OF NRN CA.  IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
   REMAIN ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. REGION WITH PERIPHERAL MOISTURE AS FAR
   NORTH AS NRN CA...SUPPORTING A LIMITED/NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR AN
   INITIALLY ISOLATED DRY TSTM OR TWO WITH RELATIVELY HIGHER
   PROBABILITIES IN THE SIERRAS.  FURTHER S INTO PARTS OF SRN
   NV/AZ/NM...HIGH PWATS AS SAMPLED BY MULTIPLE SWRN U.S. RAOBS WILL
   TEND TO PRODUCE WET TSTMS AND RESTRICT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...SIERRAS/PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/NRN CA...
   
   MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH DRY LOW LEVELS AS SAMPLED BY
   00Z/14 REV RAOB WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MENTIONED REGION. 
   DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
   INTO THE PACIFIC NW WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS 
   OF OREGON/EXTREME NRN CA.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT INCREASING
   INSTABILITY AND SOME SOUNDINGS DISPLAY DEEPLY MIXED LOW-MID LEVELS. 
   WEAK ASCENT IMPLIED BY PLAN VIEW MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
   NON-ZERO DRY TSTM CHANCE AS FAR N AS NRN CA.  OVERALL WEAK NATURE OF
   FORCING WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE /ISOLATED/ IN THE N
   WHERE ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE GREATEST.  A PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR
   ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE OVER THE SIERRAS SEEMS REASONABLE
   WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN UPPER FEATURE PLACEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
   MONSOONAL MOISTURE.
   
   ..SMITH.. 07/14/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 140920
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0420 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2008
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SEASONABLY STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN STATES
   WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AFFECTING THE NRN
   HIGH PLAINS AND PACIFIC NW.  SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OF MONSOONAL
   ORIGIN WILL LIKELY BE ADVECTED NWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE
   NRN ROCKIES.  AT THE LOWER LEVELS...IT APPEARS THAT A SURFACE TROUGH
   WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE PACIFIC NW.  A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS.  IT
   SEEMS THAT LOW RH WILL PROBABLY OCCUR TOO...SUPPORTING A LIMITED
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER PARTS OF ERN
   OREGON/WASHINGTON.  FURTHER S...MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE SWRN
   U.S. SHOULD PROVIDE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR ISOLATED DRY TSTM COVERAGE
   OVER THE SIERRAS AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN REGION.
   
   ...ERN WASHINGTON/NERN OREGON...
   STRONGER LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT /25-35 KTS AT 700MB/ ALONG WITH
   A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
   SURFACE WINDS INCREASING ON TUESDAY.  LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS WLY SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY AFTER
   PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH.  SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND LOW RH /NEAR
   15 PERCENT PER MODEL SOUNDINGS/ FOR SEVERAL HOURS...MAY RESULT IN AN
   ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN/SIERRAS...
   DRY TSTMS MAY AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY ON THE EDGE OF
   THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE.  LACK OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR GREATER
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE /ISOLATED/ WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ..SMITH.. 07/14/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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