Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 010820
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
   THE SRN ROCKIES WITH A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING NEWD
   OVER PARTS OF SRN BC/ALBERTA.  00Z/01 UIL RAOB SAMPLED UPPER SPEED
   MAX /110 KTS/ AND SRN PORTION OF SPEED MAX WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF
   THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL
   MOVE EWD OVER PARTS OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND HIGH PLAINS OF
   MONTANA DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT.  GUSTY
   WINDS AND LOW MIN RH APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION.
    FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...A LEE-SIDE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH IS
   FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS FAR S AS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  SOME
   POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   MISSOURI SLOPE REGION BUT CONCERNS REGARDING MOISTURE RETURN AND
   HIGH MODEL VARIABILITY PRECLUDE FURTHER MENTION OF THIS AREA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
   
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG SUSTAINED SW-WLY WINDS /15-30 MPH/ WITH
   GUSTS AND LOW MIN RH /TEENS/.  DETERMINISTIC PLAN VIEW MODEL
   GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT MODERATELY STRONG LOW TO
   MID-LEVEL FLOW /25-35 KTS AT 700MB/ MAY OCCUR OVER THE AREA.  WITH
   WARM TO HOT TEMPS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER
   MIXING IS LIKELY...LEADING TO CRITICALLY LOW RH FOR SEVERAL HOURS
   BEFORE NOCTURNAL RH RECOVERY.  MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS WEAKER FLOW
   OVER SERN PARTS OF CRITICAL AREA BUT STRONGER INSTABILITY DUE TO
   STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT AND SUPPORT
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A PLUME
   OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE
   REGION.  FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS OVER ERN/SERN AREAS MAY BE
   SUSCEPTIBLE TO AN ISOLATED DRY TSTM OR TWO AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
   INVERTED-V PROFILES ON SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  IN ADDITION TO THE
   POSSIBILITY OF NEW FIRE STARTS...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
   ANY TSTM.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
   
   A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO SYSTEM CRESTING
   THE NRN ROCKIES...LEADING TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
   THE REGION.  STRENGTHENING S-SWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
   AND WHEN COMBINED WITH HOT CONDITIONS...RH WILL LIKELY PLUMMET INTO
   THE TEENS IN AREAS.  SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
   WILL ACT TO INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 08/01/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 010954
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WRN KS AND ERN CO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
   CONUS WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
   PACIFIC NW REGION BEHIND A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD OVER
   THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT PUSH
   EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND EXTEND SWWD TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
    A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED TO THE LEE OF THE
   ROCKIES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF WRN KS AND ERN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / HOT TEMPS
   
   IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
   DEVELOP ON SATURDAY.  WITH FORECAST TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 100F
   DEG...RH WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE TEENS AND PERHAPS UPPER SINGLE
   DIGITS.  VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL ACT TO STEEPEN LAPSE
   RATES...PROMOTING MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. 
   STRONG SLY TO S-SSWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP AS A
   SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.  DETERMINISTIC
   GUIDANCE SHOWS MODESTLY STRONG 850MB WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 30
   KTS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT
   SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.  CRITICAL AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED BUT WILL DEFER THIS
   TO NEXT OUTLOOK UPDATE WHEN/IF CONFIDENCE OF THIS SCENARIO
   INCREASES.
   
   ...UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
   STRONG UPPER FLOW FIELDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT LATEST
   DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
   /20-25 KTS AT 700MB/ COMPARED TO D1.  DESPITE THIS...WARM TEMPS AND
   STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT...ENABLING SUBSTANTIAL
   MIXING AND LOW MIN RH INTO THE TEENS.  THERE IS UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
   MODEL VARIABILITY /SREF AND DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT/ WHETHER LOW MIN RH
   WILL BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONG SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS.  ATTM IT
   APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR MAY BE OVER THE UPPER
   SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.  WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS TO EXTEND EWD INTO WY.  WILL WITHHOLD CRITICAL
   DESIGNATION FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN NEXT OUTLOOK.
   
   ..SMITH.. 08/01/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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