Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 010820
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE SRN ROCKIES WITH A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING NEWD
OVER PARTS OF SRN BC/ALBERTA. 00Z/01 UIL RAOB SAMPLED UPPER SPEED
MAX /110 KTS/ AND SRN PORTION OF SPEED MAX WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF
THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EWD OVER PARTS OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND HIGH PLAINS OF
MONTANA DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT. GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW MIN RH APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION.
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...A LEE-SIDE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS FAR S AS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SOME
POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MISSOURI SLOPE REGION BUT CONCERNS REGARDING MOISTURE RETURN AND
HIGH MODEL VARIABILITY PRECLUDE FURTHER MENTION OF THIS AREA.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG SUSTAINED SW-WLY WINDS /15-30 MPH/ WITH
GUSTS AND LOW MIN RH /TEENS/. DETERMINISTIC PLAN VIEW MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT MODERATELY STRONG LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW /25-35 KTS AT 700MB/ MAY OCCUR OVER THE AREA. WITH
WARM TO HOT TEMPS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IS LIKELY...LEADING TO CRITICALLY LOW RH FOR SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE NOCTURNAL RH RECOVERY. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS WEAKER FLOW
OVER SERN PARTS OF CRITICAL AREA BUT STRONGER INSTABILITY DUE TO
STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT AND SUPPORT
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A PLUME
OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE
REGION. FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS OVER ERN/SERN AREAS MAY BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO AN ISOLATED DRY TSTM OR TWO AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
INVERTED-V PROFILES ON SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEW FIRE STARTS...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
ANY TSTM.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO SYSTEM CRESTING
THE NRN ROCKIES...LEADING TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH HOT CONDITIONS...RH WILL LIKELY PLUMMET INTO
THE TEENS IN AREAS. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL ACT TO INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.
..SMITH.. 08/01/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 010954
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WRN KS AND ERN CO...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
CONUS WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW REGION BEHIND A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD OVER
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT PUSH
EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND EXTEND SWWD TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF WRN KS AND ERN CO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / HOT TEMPS
IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. WITH FORECAST TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 100F
DEG...RH WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE TEENS AND PERHAPS UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS. VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL ACT TO STEEPEN LAPSE
RATES...PROMOTING MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
STRONG SLY TO S-SSWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP AS A
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS MODESTLY STRONG 850MB WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 30
KTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CRITICAL AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED BUT WILL DEFER THIS
TO NEXT OUTLOOK UPDATE WHEN/IF CONFIDENCE OF THIS SCENARIO
INCREASES.
...UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
STRONG UPPER FLOW FIELDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT LATEST
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
/20-25 KTS AT 700MB/ COMPARED TO D1. DESPITE THIS...WARM TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT...ENABLING SUBSTANTIAL
MIXING AND LOW MIN RH INTO THE TEENS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
MODEL VARIABILITY /SREF AND DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT/ WHETHER LOW MIN RH
WILL BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONG SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS. ATTM IT
APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR MAY BE OVER THE UPPER
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS TO EXTEND EWD INTO WY. WILL WITHHOLD CRITICAL
DESIGNATION FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN NEXT OUTLOOK.
..SMITH.. 08/01/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...