Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 020916
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0416 AM CDT SAT AUG 02 2008
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN KS...FAR ERN CO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...
...SYNOPSIS...
EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS
WILL SHIFT EWD...BECOMING CENTERED FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
SRN PLAINS BY EARLY SUN. UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CANADIAN SRN ROCKIES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WITH
A WEAKER IMPULSE HANGING BACK OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE
SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE A DRY LINE MIXES EAST INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF NEB/KS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - WRN KS...FAR ERN CO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DRYNESS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 DEGREES WILL LEND TO CRITICALLY
LOW RH VALUES FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT. DESPITE LIGHT WINDS IN THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERE...TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 25 MPH.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE DROUGHT
A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING IMPULSE /CURRENTLY OVER SWRN ORE PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/. INTENSE INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT.
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REACH 20 MPH NEAR PEAK HEATING.
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES WILL RESULT IN LOW RH FROM 10 TO 15
PERCENT.
...PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...
A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS AROUND PEAK
HEATING...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN SIERRAS IN NWRN
NV AND FARTHER SE OVER SWRN UT/E-CNTRL NV. MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS..SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY
REACH 20 MPH. THIS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH RH VALUES AROUND 10
PERCENT...RESULTING IN SHORT-DURATION/LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
...I-25 CORRIDOR OF SERN WY/CO...
DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND
MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH STEERING FLOW
WILL BE MODEST...A FEW TSTMS SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS THE ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS. WITH SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 60 TO 70
DEGREES...GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING IGNITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
..GRAMS.. 08/02/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 020959
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 AM CDT SAT AUG 02 2008
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...WITH EXPANSIVE RIDGING EMANATING NEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS SRN HUDSON BAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY
MAXIMA. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE CYCLONE WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS ERN
CO WITH A TROUGH/WEAK COOL FRONT DRAPED NEWD TOWARDS THE MID-MO
RIVER VALLEY.
...WRN KS/SERN CO/OK PANHANDLE...
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED AFTERNOON
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THEY
DIFFER WITH THE EXTENT OF THIS INCREASE AND THIS BREEDS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE DURATION/AMPLITUDE OF POTENTIAL LOW RH. ATTM...WILL
REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING A CRITICAL AREA AND DEFER TO A POSSIBLE
UPGRADE IN THE NEXT OUTLOOK.
...UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...
AS ON DAY 1...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH
RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER
WITH THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC PROFILE...LIKELY A RESULT
OF DIFFERENCES IN SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATIONS TRACKING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE NRN ROCKIES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. CONSENSUS WOULD POINT TO
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 20 MPH FOR A SHORT DURATION AT PEAK
HEATING.
..GRAMS.. 08/02/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...