Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 020916
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0416 AM CDT SAT AUG 02 2008
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN KS...FAR ERN CO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS
   WILL SHIFT EWD...BECOMING CENTERED FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
   SRN PLAINS BY EARLY SUN. UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
   CANADIAN SRN ROCKIES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WITH
   A WEAKER IMPULSE HANGING BACK OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE
   SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS...WHILE A DRY LINE MIXES EAST INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF NEB/KS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - WRN KS...FAR ERN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DRYNESS
   
   AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 DEGREES WILL LEND TO CRITICALLY
   LOW RH VALUES FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT. DESPITE LIGHT WINDS IN THE
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERE...TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 25 MPH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE DROUGHT
   
   A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
   DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING IMPULSE /CURRENTLY OVER SWRN ORE PER WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY/. INTENSE INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT.
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REACH 20 MPH NEAR PEAK HEATING.
   TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES WILL RESULT IN LOW RH FROM 10 TO 15
   PERCENT.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...
   A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS AROUND PEAK
   HEATING...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN SIERRAS IN NWRN
   NV AND FARTHER SE OVER SWRN UT/E-CNTRL NV. MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS
   ARE CONSISTENT WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW THROUGH
   THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS..SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY
   REACH 20 MPH. THIS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH RH VALUES AROUND 10
   PERCENT...RESULTING IN SHORT-DURATION/LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
   
   ...I-25 CORRIDOR OF SERN WY/CO...
   DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
   ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND
   MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH STEERING FLOW
   WILL BE MODEST...A FEW TSTMS SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS THE ADJACENT HIGH
   PLAINS. WITH SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 60 TO 70
   DEGREES...GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING IGNITIONS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 08/02/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 020959
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0459 AM CDT SAT AUG 02 2008
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...WITH EXPANSIVE RIDGING EMANATING NEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
   TOWARDS SRN HUDSON BAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE
   CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY
   MAXIMA. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE CYCLONE WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS ERN
   CO WITH A TROUGH/WEAK COOL FRONT DRAPED NEWD TOWARDS THE MID-MO
   RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ...WRN KS/SERN CO/OK PANHANDLE...
   A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED AFTERNOON
   WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN
   DEPICTING AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THEY
   DIFFER WITH THE EXTENT OF THIS INCREASE AND THIS BREEDS UNCERTAINTY
   AS TO THE DURATION/AMPLITUDE OF POTENTIAL LOW RH. ATTM...WILL
   REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING A CRITICAL AREA AND DEFER TO A POSSIBLE
   UPGRADE IN THE NEXT OUTLOOK.
   
   ...UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...
   AS ON DAY 1...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH
   RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER
   WITH THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC PROFILE...LIKELY A RESULT
   OF DIFFERENCES IN SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATIONS TRACKING AROUND THE
   BASE OF THE NRN ROCKIES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. CONSENSUS WOULD POINT TO
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 20 MPH FOR A SHORT DURATION AT PEAK
   HEATING.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 08/02/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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