Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150654
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0154 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2008
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE WEST...STRONGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD
   AND BECOME CENTERED ROUGHLY INVOF ID/NV/UT BORDERS. WELL ABOVE
   NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
   WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME SITES APPROACHING OR REACHING RECORD
   HIGHS. SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
   WILL BE COMMON ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
   GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT...HIGH HAINES INDICES...DRY FUELS...AND
   AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED FIRE
   THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WHERE THERMAL INSTABILITY
   MAY LEAD TO RAPID GROWTH OF NEW OR EXISTING FIRES. 
     
   MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF CA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
   SLOWLY EWD TOWARDS THE COAST. WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES
   LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT DRY THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ANY
   ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.
     
   FARTHER S IN SRN CA/SWRN AZ RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE
   SINGLE DIGITS TODAY WITH POOR RECOVERY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EWD...AND
   VAD WIND PROFILE DATA REFLECTS A GRADUAL SHIFT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
   WINDS TO SELY...SUPPORTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
   INCREASE BY TOMORROW.
     
   IN THE ERN STATES...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE...WHILE A WEAK
   COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES. WITH
   LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINING SOMEWHAT SWLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
   LAGS BEHIND...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO FOLLOW THE
   FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE DEW POINT GRADIENT WILL NOT BE SHARPLY
   DEFINED. DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 09/15/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150737
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2008
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING IS
   FORECAST TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE OVER THE NRN CA COAST AHEAD
   OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE. MEANWHILE...THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
   RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD AND BECOME CENTERED INVOF CO. HOT AND DRY
   CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   WEST...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
   CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. FURTHERMORE...THERMAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
   PACIFIC NW...I.E. HIGH HAINES INDICES...WILL ONCE AGAIN EXASPERATE
   ANY NEW OR ONGOING FIRES.
   
   AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EWD...SELY FLOW IN SRN CA/SWRN AZ WILL ALLOW FOR
   ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD
   PWAT FORECASTS HOLD TRUE...WET STORMS WOULD BE THE TENDENCY. FARTHER
   N...MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO
   DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW...MAINLY OVER NRN CA/NWRN NV/SRN
   OR. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED AND ATTM CONFIDENCE WOULD
   ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH WITH HOT AND DRY
   CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT THE SURFACE...EVEN ISOLD DEVELOPMENT WILL
   ENHANCE FIRE THREAT.
   
   SET UP WILL NEED TO BE REEXAMINED IN TOMORROWS FORECAST AS
   CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN REGARDS TO PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND TO HOW
   FAR N SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN ADVECT.
   SHOULD CONDITIONS LOOK A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...THERE MAY BE A MORE
   SIGNIFICANT AREA OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CA/NV ON THE FRINGE OF
   NWD ADVECTING MOISTURE AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 09/15/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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