Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 250852
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2008
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE PACIFIC NW
   COAST SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES EWD TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES
   THROUGH EARLY FRI. DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SHOULD
   RETROGRADE WWD INTO THE CAROLINAS.
   
   ...NRN/CNTRL NV...SRN ID...NRN UT...WRN/CNTRL WY...
   MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF MODERATE TO
   STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING
   EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WOULD SEEMINGLY BE MARGINALLY
   SUPPORTIVE OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF A MODERATELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW RH FROM 10 TO 15
   PERCENT. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST MODEL
   GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC PROFILE. THE
   OPERATIONAL NAM AND ITS WRF-NMM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF
   STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SWLYS LENDING TO POCKETS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH. WRF-ARW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...OPERATIONAL GFS
   AND ECMWF ARE MUCH LESS ROBUST...SUGGESTIVE OF LOCALIZED SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH. THESE DISCREPANCIES AND THE OVERALL
   MARGINALITY OF THE PATTERN PRECLUDES A CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE.
   
   ...CNTRL KY/MIDDLE TN/FAR NRN AL...
   WITH A GRADUAL RETROGRESSION OF CAROLINA CYCLONE...A SLOW
   INTENSIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL NELYS WILL PROVIDE FOR A MARGINAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT TODAY GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A WARM/DRY AIR MASS.
   SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 15 MPH THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG WINDS REMAINING E OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS
   TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...RH VALUES SHOULD
   DROP TO AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT.
   
   ...WRN FL PANHANDLE...
   CRITICALLY LOW RH /NEAR 30 PERCENT/ SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
   BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE N/NE MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
   LOW MEAN MIXING RATIOS COMPARED TO FARTHER E.
   NEVERTHELESS...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOB 15
   MPH...MITIGATING A CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/25/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 250928
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0428 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2008
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW ON FRI. A
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EWD FROM THE NRN
   ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER
   THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
   RETROGRESSION TO THE NW...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE WEAKENING.
   LOW RH SHOULD PERSIST IN AN ARC FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH INTO NRN FL...AND OVER THE GREAT
   BASIN. HOWEVER...ONLY MODEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THESE REGIONS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/25/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home