Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 250852
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2008
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE PACIFIC NW
COAST SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES EWD TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES
THROUGH EARLY FRI. DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SHOULD
RETROGRADE WWD INTO THE CAROLINAS.
...NRN/CNTRL NV...SRN ID...NRN UT...WRN/CNTRL WY...
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF MODERATE TO
STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING
EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WOULD SEEMINGLY BE MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODERATELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW RH FROM 10 TO 15
PERCENT. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC PROFILE. THE
OPERATIONAL NAM AND ITS WRF-NMM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SWLYS LENDING TO POCKETS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH. WRF-ARW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...OPERATIONAL GFS
AND ECMWF ARE MUCH LESS ROBUST...SUGGESTIVE OF LOCALIZED SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH. THESE DISCREPANCIES AND THE OVERALL
MARGINALITY OF THE PATTERN PRECLUDES A CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE.
...CNTRL KY/MIDDLE TN/FAR NRN AL...
WITH A GRADUAL RETROGRESSION OF CAROLINA CYCLONE...A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL NELYS WILL PROVIDE FOR A MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT TODAY GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A WARM/DRY AIR MASS.
SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 15 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG WINDS REMAINING E OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...RH VALUES SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT.
...WRN FL PANHANDLE...
CRITICALLY LOW RH /NEAR 30 PERCENT/ SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE N/NE MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
LOW MEAN MIXING RATIOS COMPARED TO FARTHER E.
NEVERTHELESS...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOB 15
MPH...MITIGATING A CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE.
..GRAMS.. 09/25/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 250928
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0428 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2008
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW ON FRI. A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EWD FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
RETROGRESSION TO THE NW...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE WEAKENING.
LOW RH SHOULD PERSIST IN AN ARC FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH INTO NRN FL...AND OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. HOWEVER...ONLY MODEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THESE REGIONS.
..GRAMS.. 09/25/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...