Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 090718
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0218 AM CDT THU OCT 09 2008
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH A
   BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS.  STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS
   AHEAD OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH AND MARGINALLY LOW RH MAY OCCUR OVER
   PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT BASIN.  FURTHER W...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH
   WILL RESULT IN BORDERLINE CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF THE
   SACRAMENTO VALLEY EXTENDING SWD INTO THE NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. AT
   THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SWD OVER PARTS OF THE WRN
   STATES IN ADVANCE OF POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL INFLUENCE THE
   WEATHER OVER THE WEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE WILL FORM IN ERN COLORADO WITH AN ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH
   EXTENDING TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...SACRAMENTO/NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...
   A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE SWD OVER THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. 
   LATEST SREF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES AREAS WITHIN THE SACRAMENTO
   VALLEY MAY EXPERIENCE THE LONGEST DURATION OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 30-35 MPH LATE
   THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIN RH MAY DROP TO 8-15
   PERCENT WITH THE LOW RH MOST LIKELY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.  AS A
   RESULT...AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF BORDERLINE
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS UNTIL RH RECOVERS DURING THE EVENING.  
   
   ...PARTS OF SRN UT/NRN AZ...
   INCREASING SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /30-40 MPH AT 700MB/ APPEARS LIKELY
   AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST.  MODEL FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIN RH MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS LATE
   THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. 
   ATTM...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH
   25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PROBABLE.  HOWEVER...ANY APPRECIABLE FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HINDERED BY MARGINALLY LOW RH
   CONDITIONS/FUELS--PRECLUDING A CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ..SMITH.. 10/09/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 090838
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 AM CDT THU OCT 09 2008
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EXERT LARGE INFLUENCE OVER MOST OF THE
   CONUS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
   EAST.  UPPER FLOW FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER PARTS OF
   THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST REGION WITH A
   COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST.  GUSTY WINDS AND
   LOW RH MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COASTAL RANGES AND CENTRAL
   VALLEY REGION...AND OVER PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S. IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   THE UPPER TROUGH.
   
   ...PARTS OF CENTRAL CA...
   A STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX /100 KTS/ WILL APPROACH COASTAL AREAS
   OF CENTRAL CA DURING THE PERIOD.  IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT GUSTY
   CONDITIONS /AOA 25 MPH/ WILL OCCUR AT TIMES.  COOLER TEMPERATURES
   WILL REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW RH ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE SOME
   DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY.  LATEST ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
   SUGGESTS SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE BORDERLINE CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RH APPEAR TO BE
   LIMITING FACTORS DESPITE GUSTY CONDITIONS--PRECLUDING A CRITICAL
   OUTLOOK AREA ATTM.
    
   ...PARTS OF EXTREME SRN UT/NRN AZ...
   MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
   WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS TOWARDS THE
   REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE STRONGEST 700MB WINDS WILL
   LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SOME RH RECOVERY FRIDAY EVENING. 
   NONETHELESS...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS
   AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH MARGINALLY LOW RH.  MARGINAL RH/FUELS AND NEAR
   AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL AREA ATTM.
   
   ..SMITH.. 10/09/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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