Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 100818
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH PER MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL
   DROP S ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND OVERSPREAD PARTS OF WRN CONUS
   DURING THE PERIOD.  FURTHER SE...UPPER FLOW FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO
   STRENGTHEN OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  AT THE
   SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
   PLAINS/MIDWEST REGION WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE WEST.  GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND INTERMITTENT
   PERIODS OF LOW RH DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COASTAL RANGES AND CENTRAL
   VALLEY REGION.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF CENTRAL CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG GUSTY WINDS / INTERMITTENT LOW RH
   
   A STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX /125 MPH/ WILL APPROACH COASTAL AREAS
   OF CENTRAL CA DURING THE PERIOD.  DESPITE LATEST ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
   SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED LOW RH POTENTIAL AND MILD
   TEMPERATURES LIKELY TEMPERING RH VALUES...SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
   IN AREAS MAY REDUCE RH VALUES FURTHER--YIELDING LOW MIN RH /TEENS/. 
   SUSTAINED NLY WINDS GENERALLY OF 20-30 MPH WILL RESULT IN WINDS
   GUSTING AOA 30MPH /ESPECIALLY 1000FT OR HIGHER/.  WINDS MAY GAIN A
   NELY COMPONENT LATE IN THE PERIOD RESULTING IN SOME OFFSHORE FLOW
   MAINLY I-80 AND NWD.
   
   ...PARTS OF EXTREME SRN UT/NRN AZ EXTENDING W INTO CA DESERTS...
   MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
   WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS TOWARDS THE
   REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN
   SHOWING THE STRONGEST 700MB WINDS TO LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE AREA
   AFTER SOME RH RECOVERY FRIDAY EVENING.  NONETHELESS...SUSTAINED
   WINDS AROUND 20-30 MPH /GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH/ WITH MARGINALLY
   LOW RH.  LOCALIZED AREAS IN NWRN AZ AND WWD MAY EXCEED CRITICAL
   CRITERIA FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHERE LOW RH AND THE STRONGER WINDS
   APPEAR MAXIMIZED/MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.  HOWEVER MARGINAL RH/FUELS
   AND NEAR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL AREA ATTM.
   
   ..SMITH.. 10/10/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 100933
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0433 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO
   SLOWLY MOVE NEWD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
   UPPER TROUGH...STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS /110 MPH AT 500MB/ WILL
   OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY REGION OF CA.  STRONG GUSTY
   WINDS CO-LOCATED WITH MARGINALLY LOW RH WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO/SAN
   JOAQUIN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL COASTAL MTNS VALLEYS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF CENTRAL CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG GUSTY WINDS / LOW RH
   
   A CONTINUATION OF MODERATELY STRONG NLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PROBABLY
   OCCUR OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD.  MODEL
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING IN 850MB FLOW COMPARED TO DAY
   1...WHICH MAY MITIGATE HIGHER WIND GUST POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...STEEP
   LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE SUFFICIENT MIXING FOR AREAS TO ATTAIN
   SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS
   SATURDAY.  ENSEMBLE OUTPUT INDICATES MIN RH WILL PROBABLY FALL INTO
   THE LOWER TEENS /PARTIALLY AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE/ LEADING TO CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL CA.
   
   ...CA SIERRA MADRE MTNS...
   LATE IN THE PERIOD...SOME OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
   INDICATES OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE SIERRA MADRE MTNS BY
   SUNDAY MORNING.  AS A RESULT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW RH AND GUSTY
   CONDITIONS.  UNCERTAINTY DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DIFFERENCE
   PRECLUDES A CRITICAL AREA ATTM.
   
   ..SMITH.. 10/10/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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