Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 100818
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL CA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH PER MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL
DROP S ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND OVERSPREAD PARTS OF WRN CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. FURTHER SE...UPPER FLOW FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST REGION WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND INTERMITTENT
PERIODS OF LOW RH DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COASTAL RANGES AND CENTRAL
VALLEY REGION.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF CENTRAL CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG GUSTY WINDS / INTERMITTENT LOW RH
A STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX /125 MPH/ WILL APPROACH COASTAL AREAS
OF CENTRAL CA DURING THE PERIOD. DESPITE LATEST ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED LOW RH POTENTIAL AND MILD
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TEMPERING RH VALUES...SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
IN AREAS MAY REDUCE RH VALUES FURTHER--YIELDING LOW MIN RH /TEENS/.
SUSTAINED NLY WINDS GENERALLY OF 20-30 MPH WILL RESULT IN WINDS
GUSTING AOA 30MPH /ESPECIALLY 1000FT OR HIGHER/. WINDS MAY GAIN A
NELY COMPONENT LATE IN THE PERIOD RESULTING IN SOME OFFSHORE FLOW
MAINLY I-80 AND NWD.
...PARTS OF EXTREME SRN UT/NRN AZ EXTENDING W INTO CA DESERTS...
MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS TOWARDS THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE STRONGEST 700MB WINDS TO LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AFTER SOME RH RECOVERY FRIDAY EVENING. NONETHELESS...SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20-30 MPH /GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH/ WITH MARGINALLY
LOW RH. LOCALIZED AREAS IN NWRN AZ AND WWD MAY EXCEED CRITICAL
CRITERIA FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHERE LOW RH AND THE STRONGER WINDS
APPEAR MAXIMIZED/MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. HOWEVER MARGINAL RH/FUELS
AND NEAR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL AREA ATTM.
..SMITH.. 10/10/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 100933
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0433 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL CA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MOVE NEWD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS /110 MPH AT 500MB/ WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY REGION OF CA. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS CO-LOCATED WITH MARGINALLY LOW RH WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO/SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL COASTAL MTNS VALLEYS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF CENTRAL CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG GUSTY WINDS / LOW RH
A CONTINUATION OF MODERATELY STRONG NLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING IN 850MB FLOW COMPARED TO DAY
1...WHICH MAY MITIGATE HIGHER WIND GUST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE SUFFICIENT MIXING FOR AREAS TO ATTAIN
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS
SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE OUTPUT INDICATES MIN RH WILL PROBABLY FALL INTO
THE LOWER TEENS /PARTIALLY AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE/ LEADING TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL CA.
...CA SIERRA MADRE MTNS...
LATE IN THE PERIOD...SOME OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE SIERRA MADRE MTNS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW RH AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS. UNCERTAINTY DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DIFFERENCE
PRECLUDES A CRITICAL AREA ATTM.
..SMITH.. 10/10/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...