Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 110726
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE
   WRN CONUS THROUGH EARLY SUN. INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET /500 MB WINDS
   AROUND 120 MPH/ WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM
   THE CA COAST TO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND FOUR CORNERS BY
   12/00Z. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
   ERN UT/WRN CO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
   MARCHING E/SEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / SEVERE
   DROUGHT
   
   LATEST ASOS/MESONET OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM GUSTY NLY WINDS CONTINUING
   FROM FRI AFTERNOON INVOF SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ADJACENT
   FOOTHILLS...WHICH HAS LENT TO ONLY FAIR RH RECOVERY DESPITE COOL
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S/50S. AS INSOLATION COMMENCES AND THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   MAINTAIN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF
   THE DAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
   LOWER 70S...RH VALUES FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT SHOULD BE COMMON.
   
   ...NERN AZ...
   VERY STRONG WINDS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY JUXTAPOSED WITH MARGINALLY LOW
   RH/WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS RAPID DRYING
   ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE
   FORECASTS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS FROM 25 TO 40 MPH...THEY DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY WITH
   THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS GIVEN TIGHT GRADIENTS INVOF FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TO DEVELOP ALONG
   THE FRONT LATER THIS MORNING CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON THE DRYNESS OF
   FUELS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/11/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 110858
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL AREA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
   ELONGATED AS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE LIFTS N FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES OVER
   THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM HANGS BACK
   ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
   THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CA COASTAL AREA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE TO
   SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
   MORNING...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NE OF THE REGION AND
   A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE NET RESULT WILL BE
   STRENGTHENING AND VEERING OF LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE N/NELY
   COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
   COINCIDENT WITH RH VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT IN FAVORED
   CANYONS/PASSES OF THE COASTAL MTNS FROM 06-12Z ON THE 13TH.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/COASTAL
   MTNS OF NRN CA...
   LOCALLY GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SUN MORNING AND
   SHOULD REDEVELOP SUN NIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
   NOCTURNALLY TIGHTENS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN POCKETS OF POOR OVERNIGHT
   RH RECOVERY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW VALUES FROM 8 TO 15 PERCENT DURING
   THE DAY. ONE CHANGE FROM FRI AND SAT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
   SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING IN THE MID-LEVELS...LIMITING BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEPTH. THIS WILL INHIBIT MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND
   SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 MPH OVER MOST
   OF THE AREA.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/11/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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