Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 120751
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0251 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2008
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL
   AREA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
   AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS SHOULD BECOME
   INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AS EMBEDDED POTENT SHORT WAVE LIFTS N FROM
   THE CNTRL ROCKIES TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A SECONDARY
   VORTICITY MAXIMUM HANGS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS. AT THE
   SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
   CNTRL GREAT BASIN.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL
   AREA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE TO
   SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING...AS A
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NE OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE HIGH
   BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO VEERING OF MID-LEVEL
   FLOW...BECOMING MORE OPTIMALLY ALIGNED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE CONCOMITANT
   WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT IN CANYONS/PASSES OF THE
   COASTAL MTNS AFTER 13/06Z.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
   AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   SIMILAR TO SAT MORNING...GUSTY NLY WINDS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ONLY
   POOR TO FAIR RH RECOVERY DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S/50S.
   DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS
   IN THE 70S LENDING TO MIN RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT.
   SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE MID-LEVELS
   WHICH IN TURN WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKER WINDS COMPARED TO FRI/SAT.
   NEVERTHELESS...AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WILL
   MAINTAIN A LOW-END CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/12/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 120925
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0425 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2008
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL AREA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST
   WILL DEVOLVE INTO TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES. ONE WILL ACCELERATE EWD
   ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
   LAKES...WHILE THE OTHER REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE FOUR
   CORNERS. RIDGING WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THESE
   FEATURES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TO THE NRN ROCKIES...PRIOR TO A
   FAST-MOVING LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE SHIFTING INLAND TO SWRN CANADA. A
   STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CA COASTAL AREA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE TO SEVERE
   DROUGHT
   
   A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE WIND EVENT APPEARS APT TO PEAK MON EVENING
   INTO EARLY TUE...WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS COMMENCING LATE DAY 1.
   MODEL FORECASTS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
   NELYS AOB 700 MB...WITH NEAR-SURFACE FLOW ENHANCED BY A TIGHT
   PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A GREAT BASIN HIGH AND OFFSHORE TROUGH.
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON. WIND GUSTS
   TO AROUND 60 MPH IN FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES MAINLY N/E OF THE LA
   BASIN SHOULD LEAD TO A LOCALIZED EXTREME THREAT. DOWNSLOPE
   WARMING/DRYING WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AND LONG DURATION LOW RH
   AOB 15 PERCENT WITH MINIMAL OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NRN CA...
   AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS AND POOR RH RECOVERY SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
   13/12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
   MIN RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER WITH TIMING
   OF RIDGE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS AND THE CONSEQUENT
   WEAKENING OF THE DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILE. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
   GUIDANCE SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 20
   MPH...WITH THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION MAINTAINING SIMILAR SPEEDS TO DAY
   1. THESE DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH THE OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE OF WIND
   STRENGTH...WILL MITIGATE A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION ATTM.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/12/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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