Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 120751
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2008
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL
AREA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NRN CA...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AS EMBEDDED POTENT SHORT WAVE LIFTS N FROM
THE CNTRL ROCKIES TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A SECONDARY
VORTICITY MAXIMUM HANGS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
CNTRL GREAT BASIN.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL
AREA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE TO
SEVERE DROUGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING...AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NE OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO VEERING OF MID-LEVEL
FLOW...BECOMING MORE OPTIMALLY ALIGNED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
WINDS. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE CONCOMITANT
WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT IN CANYONS/PASSES OF THE
COASTAL MTNS AFTER 13/06Z.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / SEVERE DROUGHT
SIMILAR TO SAT MORNING...GUSTY NLY WINDS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ONLY
POOR TO FAIR RH RECOVERY DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S/50S.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S LENDING TO MIN RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT.
SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE MID-LEVELS
WHICH IN TURN WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKER WINDS COMPARED TO FRI/SAT.
NEVERTHELESS...AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW-END CRITICAL THREAT.
..GRAMS.. 10/12/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 120925
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0425 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2008
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL AREA...
...SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL DEVOLVE INTO TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES. ONE WILL ACCELERATE EWD
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES...WHILE THE OTHER REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. RIDGING WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THESE
FEATURES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TO THE NRN ROCKIES...PRIOR TO A
FAST-MOVING LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE SHIFTING INLAND TO SWRN CANADA. A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CA COASTAL AREA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE TO SEVERE
DROUGHT
A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE WIND EVENT APPEARS APT TO PEAK MON EVENING
INTO EARLY TUE...WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS COMMENCING LATE DAY 1.
MODEL FORECASTS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
NELYS AOB 700 MB...WITH NEAR-SURFACE FLOW ENHANCED BY A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A GREAT BASIN HIGH AND OFFSHORE TROUGH.
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON. WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 60 MPH IN FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES MAINLY N/E OF THE LA
BASIN SHOULD LEAD TO A LOCALIZED EXTREME THREAT. DOWNSLOPE
WARMING/DRYING WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AND LONG DURATION LOW RH
AOB 15 PERCENT WITH MINIMAL OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
...PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NRN CA...
AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS AND POOR RH RECOVERY SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
13/12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
MIN RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER WITH TIMING
OF RIDGE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS AND THE CONSEQUENT
WEAKENING OF THE DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILE. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
GUIDANCE SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 20
MPH...WITH THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION MAINTAINING SIMILAR SPEEDS TO DAY
1. THESE DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH THE OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE OF WIND
STRENGTH...WILL MITIGATE A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION ATTM.
..GRAMS.. 10/12/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...