Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 130803
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2008
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL AREA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL FRACTURE INTO TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES. ONE WILL ACCELERATE
E/NEWD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO ONTARIO...WHILE THE OTHER
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC NW WILL WEAKEN AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE OVER THE NERN
PACIFIC RAPIDLY PROGRESSES INLAND ACROSS SWRN CANADA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL GREAT
BASIN...WHILE A TROUGH HOLDS ALONG THE CA COAST.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CA COASTAL AREA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE TO SEVERE
DROUGHT
A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL AND LOCALIZED EXTREME CONDITIONS. ASOS AND MESONET
OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE AIDED IN POOR RH
RECOVERY ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE COASTAL MTNS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE FURTHER THIS MORNING PRIOR TO LEVELING OFF FOR A
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE EARLY EVENING...THE PEAK OF THE EVENT
SHOULD COMMENCE AS STRONG 700-500 MB FLOW WILL BE OPTIMALLY ALIGNED
WITH THE LOWER-LEVEL WIND PROFILE. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 25
TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON...WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH IN
FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES N/E OF THE LA BASIN. CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE
WARMING/DRYING WILL SUPPORT LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH /AOB 15
PERCENT/ WITH MINIMAL RH RECOVERY.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / ABNORMAL DRYNESS
A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO STRONG NLY
WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL REACH 20 TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S
WILL RESULT IN CRITICALLY LOW RH NEAR 10 PERCENT.
...SACRAMENTO VALLEY VICINITY OF NRN CA...
GUSTY N/NELY WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE ISOLATED THIS MORNING AND LED TO
IMPROVED RH RECOVERY IN MOST LOCALES. ONE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
HILLS/MTNS SURROUNDING THE W SIDE OF THE VALLEY. STILL...THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL WEAKEN THE DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC
PROFILE TODAY...WHILE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
LIMIT THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. ALTHOUGH LOW RH WILL
PERSIST...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH LENDING
TO A MORE MARGINAL THREAT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS THREE DAYS.
..GRAMS.. 10/13/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 130908
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0408 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2008
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL AREA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD AS AN IMPULSE OVER THE NERN PACIFIC ENTERS
THE PACIFIC NW. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD WEAKEN AS
IT SHIFTS EWD TO THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CA COASTAL AREA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS / LONG DURATION LOW RH /
MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/TUE ALONG HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS/CANYONS WITH SUSTAINED OFFSHORE WINDS
OF 20 TO 35 MPH AND MINIMAL TO NO RH RECOVERY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING DIMINISHING DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC SUPPORT
THROUGH THE DAY...ALONG WITH A MORE RELAXED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TUE EVENING INTO WED MORNING. THUS...OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD RH VALUES
OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT WILL PERSIST UNTIL TUE NIGHT. EVEN WITH MORE
MODEST OFFSHORE WINDS...POOR RH RECOVERY IS STILL ANTICIPATED WED
MORNING.
...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WILL LEAD TO
LOW RH OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEY VARY WITH
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WEAKENING. CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST SUSTAINED
SURFACE SPEEDS WOULD BE MARGINAL /NEAR 20 MPH/. THUS...WILL REFRAIN
FROM INTRODUCING A CRITICAL AREA ATTM.
..GRAMS.. 10/13/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...