Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 270808
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2008
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NRN FL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY TUE. 
   A VIGOROUS LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE OVER
   THE EAST...WHILE A RIDGE REMAINS IN THE WEST. A POTENT COLD FRONT
   WILL SWEEP OFF THE EAST AND GULF COASTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ITS
   WAKE...AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / SEVERE TO
   EXTREME DROUGHT
   
   A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PASSAGE HAS LED TO GUSTY N/NELY
   WINDS AMIDST A RAPIDLY DRYING AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
   PASSAGE. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH SHOULD BECOME
   JUXTAPOSED WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT BY
   NOON. MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN INSISTENT ON SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF
   THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSEQUENT LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE AS AN
   ANTICYCLONE QUICKLY APPROACHES. AS SUCH...WINDS WILL RELAX THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DROUGHT PRESENT...A
   MODEST DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR AN
   AREAL DELINEATION.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF NRN FL...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE TO HIGH KBDI
   
   LOW-LEVEL NWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AFTER A COLD
   FRONT PASSAGE. DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CAA AND FALLING
   TEMPERATURES...RAPID DRYING SHOULD RESULT IN RH FALLING BELOW 35
   PERCENT DURING THE MID/LATE-AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE
   COINCIDENT WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH AND
   RESULT IN A MODERATE-DURATION CRITICAL THREAT. LONGER DURATIONS OF
   LOW RH WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE...SRN GA AND SRN
   AL. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL /AOA 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL DURING THE
   PAST WEEK/ IN THESE AREAS SUGGEST OVERALL FIRE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
   TEMPERED.
   
   ...CNTRL GULF COAST...
   MODERATE TO STRONG NLY WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR A LONGER DURATION TODAY
   THAN IN THE PERSISTENT DROUGHT AREA OF S-CNTRL TX...WITH SUSTAINED
   SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LOW RH FROM 20 TO 30
   PERCENT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT DESPITE TEMPERATURES
   ONLY IN THE 60S. RELATIVELY GREEN FUELS WILL MITIGATE A CRITICAL
   AREA DESIGNATION.
   
   ...SERN AZ...
   LOW-LEVEL ELYS HAVE STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING AS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
   BUILT SWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS RESULTING IN A TIGHTENED SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SERN AZ. COOLING/MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER WILL LIKELY LIMIT CRITICALLY LOW RH FROM DEVELOPING OVER MOST
   OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED RH
   VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF VARIOUS MTN CHAINS
   CONCOMITANT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/27/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 270811
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2008
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL EVOLVE INTO
   A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
   TRANSLATE OVER THE GREAT BASIN IMPINGING UPON WRN CONUS RIDGE AXIS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / MODERATE WINDS / MODERATE TO HIGH KBDI
   
   A RELATIVELY LONG DURATION OF LOW RH IS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE
   DAYTIME ON TUE. MODERATE LOW-LEVEL N/NWLYS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
   COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON DAY 1 WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL/DRY
   CONTINENTAL AIR MASS TO PERMEATE THROUGH MUCH OF FL. ALTHOUGH
   TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 60S...PW VALUES DROPPING TO A
   QUARTER INCH SHOULD LEAD TO RH AROUND 25 PERCENT. SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS NEAR 15 MPH WILL AID IN A CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/27/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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