Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150806
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2008
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY
   WILL PROGRESS EWD TOWARDS THE ERN SEABOARD. UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST
   ALONG THE W COAST. SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W
   WILL WEAKEN WITH THE INFLUENCE OF A FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   DROPPING SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. FARTHER S...HIGH
   PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE TO SEVERE
   DROUGHT
   
   RECENT ASOS/MESONET OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM OFFSHORE WINDS WITH
   WIDESPREAD GUSTS AOA 30 MPH...LOCALLY UP TO AROUND 70 MPH...AND
   LITTLE RH RECOVERY WITH VALUES FROM 8 TO 15 PERCENT OVER HIGHER
   TERRAIN AND ADJACENT CANYONS/PASSES. THIS SANTA ANA EVENT SHOULD
   WANE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND
   WINDS DIMINISH. HOWEVER...AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS /ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE
   AS STRONG AS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/ SHOULD REDEVELOP THIS
   EVENING WITH CONTINUED RH VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE TO EXTREME
   DROUGHT
   
   GUSTY NLY WINDS WERE COMMON THIS MORNING OWING TO A TIGHT SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. EVEN WITH THE
   RAPID APPROACH OF AN ANTICYCLONE AND A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
   THROUGH THE DAY...A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN
   DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH
   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN ON
   FRI...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THIS
   WILL LEAD TO RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT.
   
   ...S-CNTRL AZ...
   LOCALLY GUSTY N/NELY WINDS AND LITTLE RH RECOVERY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
   OVERNIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT CANYONS N/E OF THE PHX
   METRO AREA. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WINDS WILL
   DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...MITIGATING A
   CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 11/15/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150941
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2008
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A
   TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE IN THE WEST. WEAKENING SURFACE
   ANTICYCLONES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN AND TX COAST
   ON SUN AFTERNOON.
   
   ...SRN CA COASTAL AREA...
   CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL RELAXING OF
   LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS AND CORRESPONDING WEAKENING OF
   KINEMATIC FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
   NIGHTS. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
   ONGOING 12Z/SUN WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS AND POOR RH
   RECOVERY...MAINLY ALONG FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES N/E OF THE LA BASIN.
   WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN FURTHER LATE SUN MORNING...ALTHOUGH LOW RH WILL
   REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH THE DAY.
   
   ...FL...
   A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON DAY 1 WILL RESULT IN THE ADVECTION OF A
   COOLER/DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS THROUGH THE STATE BY SUN
   AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY ONLY WARM INTO THE
   60S...RH VALUES OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT SHOULD BE COMMON.
   HOWEVER...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODEST /FROM 10 TO
   15 MPH/...MITIGATING A CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 11/15/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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