Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 090741
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0141 AM CST TUE DEC 09 2008
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR S CNTRL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH
   THE DAY. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT A WIDESPREAD AREA ALONG A
   COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE MS VALLEY
   AND INTO THE GULF COAST REGION DURING THE DAY...AND SHIFTING TO THE
   EAST COAST BY OVERNIGHT.
   
   BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...STRONG AND GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
   SRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN TOO COLD FOR FIRE
   CONCERNS...PORTIONS OF S CNTRL TX WILL REMAIN WARM AND MODESTLY DRY
   IN COMBINATION WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS. 
   
   AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD...A LARGE SCALE UPPER
   RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST...CENTERED INVOF SRN ID. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT ACROSS SRN CA...ALLOWING A MODERATE SANTA ANA EVENT TO
   COMMENCE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...MODERATE TO SEVERE
   DROUGHT
   
   12 AM CST ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NRN AZ AND
   EXTENDING WWD ACROSS FAR SRN CA...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
   BUILDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
   THROUGH SRN CA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
   QUICKLY TIGHTEN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE. NLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
   TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH
   STRONG GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH RECORDED IN PORTIONS OF SRN NV IMMEDIATELY
   FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO BE ONGOING AT
   THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS LIKELY ACROSS HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS AND 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS IN THE VALLEYS. WINDS WILL SHIFT
   TO NORTHEASTERLY...AND WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
   GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THROUGH FAVORED
   PASSES AND CANYONS. EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE
   TEENS AND POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS AS THIS INITIATES WARM/DRY
   DOWNSLOPING IN THE COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL
   BE POOR...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
   OXNARD WFO...LA/VENTURA COUNTY FIRE AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST
   HAVE REPORTED DRIER FUELS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THEREFORE A
   CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN DESIGNATED. FARTHER S...CONDITIONS WILL BE
   FAVORABLE...ALTHOUGH MORE MOIST FUELS HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - S CNTRL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY WINDS WITH COLD FRONT...LOW RH...SEVERE
   DROUGHT
   
   A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY WITH COOL AND DRY
   AIR FOLLOWING. GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP...AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS
   NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. AS STATED YESTERDAY...RH
   FORECASTS REMAIN PROBLEMATIC...WITH SOME MODELS FORECASTING VALUES
   NEAR 30 PERCENT...AND OTHERS CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT.
   REGARDLESS...PERSISTENT SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE
   FIRE DANGER GIVEN STRONG WINDS AND EVEN MARGINAL RH VALUES. THESE
   WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL INCREASE
    OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 12/09/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 090811
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 AM CST TUE DEC 09 2008
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE CNTRL US AND
   WILL EXTEND FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MS VALLEY BY LATE
   D2. MEANWHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN GULF.
   WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE EAST COAST AND THE GULF
   COAST REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE SYSTEMS.
   
   FARTHER W...STRONG AND GUSTY NLY/NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
   S CNTRL TX IN COMBINATION WITH COOL AND DRY AIR.
   
   IN SRN CA...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL WINDS
   WILL BE LIGHTER THAN DAY 1.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SOUTH CENTRAL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH...SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   STRONG NLY/NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS S CNTRL TX AROUND THE
   BACKSIDE OF A SECOND UPPER LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN GULF
   AND SLOWLY DRIFT EWD. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED ON DAY 1
   WILL CONTINUE...AS NO APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA.
   DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED NEAR
   20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GIVEN SEVERE DROUGHT AND SIMILAR
   CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED THE PREVIOUS DAY...A HEIGHTENED FIRE THREAT
   WILL EXIST.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPERIENCED THROUGHOUT THE DAY 2 TIME FRAME
   AS WARM/DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUE. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
   TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL
   CONUS CONTINUES EWD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED
   PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SRN CA WILL DECREASE AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO
   THIS. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS MAY AFFECT THE AREA WED MORNING...ALBEIT
   LIGHTER THAN D1...IN GENERAL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THIS OCCURS.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 12/09/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home