Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 160709
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2009
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AND CNTRL FL...SRN AL AND
GA...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OFFSHORE OF THE WEST
COAST...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH BECOMES SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...FAVORING LOW RH VALUES AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES...SITUATED BENEATH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FARTHER EAST...NORTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL AID IN MAINTAINING LOW RH VALUES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...YIELDING AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THIS WILL AID IN MAINTAINING
STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...THE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
LOCK AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL FAVOR DRY OFFSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS INDICATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...BUT STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. DUE TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW...DRY FUELS ARE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. THESE FUEL CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH LOW RH VALUES /10 TO 20 PERCENT...WITH LITTLE
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY/ AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN AND CNTRL FL...SRN GA AND AL...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH...GUSTY WINDS...MODERATE DROUGHT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RELAXING BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS /10 TO 20 MPH/ ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL AS WELL AS SRN GA AND AL. IN ADDITION...DRY
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN EXTENDED DURATIONS
OF LOW RH VALUES OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE
TEENS OVER SRN GA AND AL AS WELL AS NRN FL...AND 20 TO LOWER 30S
OVER CNTRL FL AND AREAS ALONG THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL/MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER AGGRAVATE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES AND MID ATLANTIC...
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RELATIVELY COLD. HOWEVER...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE TEENS DURING THE DAY. THESE RH VALUES COMBINED WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL OVER CNTRL AL/GA AND MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS...WILL
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT.
..GARNER/HURLBUT.. 01/16/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 160755
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2009
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE ON DAY 2...WITH A
RIDGE REMAINING OFF THE WEST COAST AND A MEAN TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
THE EAST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...A SURFACE HIGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...MAINTAINING DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SRN CA...MAINTAINING A DEEP LAYER OF
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WIND PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME A BIT ERRATIC DURING THE DAY...BUT STRONGER TERRAIN INDUCED
WINDS/GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LONG DURATION OF OFFSHORE
FLOW AND RESULTANT DRY FUELS...COMBINED WITH LOW RH VALUES /LESS
THAN 15 PERCENT/ CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...SERN STATES...
AN AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THIS WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT WEAK LOW LEVEL
WINDS...THOUGH STRONGER RETURN FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER NRN AL/GA BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ANTICIPATED
WINDS...LOW RH VALUES /AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT/ AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD.
THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER BY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH DURING
THE DAY. IN ADDITION...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20-30
PERCENT...YIELDING AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT. DUE TO THE COOL POST
FRONTAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS MODEL UNCERTAINTY...WILL
REEVALUATE FOR A CRITICAL OUTLOOK DURING THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE.
..GARNER/HURLBUT.. 01/16/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...