Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 160709
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0109 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2009
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AND CNTRL FL...SRN AL AND
   GA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OFFSHORE OF THE WEST
   COAST...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH BECOMES SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN
   CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
   CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
   CALIFORNIA...FAVORING LOW RH VALUES AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS.
   
   COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
   THE UNITED STATES...SITUATED BENEATH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
   FARTHER EAST...NORTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
   CENTER WILL AID IN MAINTAINING LOW RH VALUES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
   UNITED STATES...YIELDING AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH
   
   A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER FAR SOUTHERN
   CALIFORNIA DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THIS WILL AID IN MAINTAINING
   STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. IN
   ADDITION...THE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
   LOCK AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE JUST OFF THE WEST
   COAST...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
   GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL FAVOR DRY OFFSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS
   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS INDICATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
   WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...BUT STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
   STRONG GUSTY WINDS. DUE TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
   FLOW...DRY FUELS ARE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. THESE FUEL CONDITIONS
   COMBINED WITH LOW RH VALUES /10 TO 20 PERCENT...WITH LITTLE
   OVERNIGHT RECOVERY/ AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
   CALIFORNIA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN AND CNTRL FL...SRN GA AND AL...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH...GUSTY WINDS...MODERATE DROUGHT
   
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
   REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MID
   AFTERNOON...BEFORE RELAXING BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   THEREFORE...RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS /10 TO 20 MPH/ ARE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL AS WELL AS SRN GA AND AL. IN ADDITION...DRY
   NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN EXTENDED DURATIONS
   OF LOW RH VALUES OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE
   TEENS OVER SRN GA AND AL AS WELL AS NRN FL...AND 20 TO LOWER 30S
   OVER CNTRL FL AND AREAS ALONG THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL
   RAINFALL/MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER AGGRAVATE FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES AND MID ATLANTIC...
   CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
   WILL BE RELATIVELY COLD. HOWEVER...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
   INTO THE TEENS DURING THE DAY. THESE RH VALUES COMBINED WITH
   SCATTERED MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH BELOW
   NORMAL RAINFALL OVER CNTRL AL/GA AND MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS...WILL
   RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT.
   
   ..GARNER/HURLBUT.. 01/16/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 160755
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0155 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2009
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE ON DAY 2...WITH A
   RIDGE REMAINING OFF THE WEST COAST AND A MEAN TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
   THE EAST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
   MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
   MID ATLANTIC REGION. OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...A SURFACE HIGH
   WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...MAINTAINING DRY OFFSHORE
   FLOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH
   
   VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. A
   WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SRN CA...MAINTAINING A DEEP LAYER OF
   DRY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WIND PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO
   BECOME A BIT ERRATIC DURING THE DAY...BUT STRONGER TERRAIN INDUCED
   WINDS/GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LONG DURATION OF OFFSHORE
   FLOW AND RESULTANT DRY FUELS...COMBINED WITH LOW RH VALUES /LESS
   THAN 15 PERCENT/ CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   AN AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION DURING
   THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THIS WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT WEAK LOW LEVEL
   WINDS...THOUGH STRONGER RETURN FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER NRN AL/GA BY
   LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ANTICIPATED
   WINDS...LOW RH VALUES /AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT/ AND CONTINUED DRY
   CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   A SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE FORECAST
   TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD.
   THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER BY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH DURING
   THE DAY. IN ADDITION...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20-30
   PERCENT...YIELDING AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT. DUE TO THE COOL POST
   FRONTAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS MODEL UNCERTAINTY...WILL
   REEVALUATE FOR A CRITICAL OUTLOOK DURING THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GARNER/HURLBUT.. 01/16/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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