Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 080804
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0204 AM CST SUN FEB 08 2009
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
   WRN STATES AND A CLOSED LOW SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA.  THIS
   SYSTEM WILL EJECT EWD DURING THE DAY AND LEAD TO STRENGTHENING FLOW
   FIELDS ALOFT /70KT AT 500MB FLOW/ OVERSPREADING THE SRN ROCKIES AND
   SRN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS.  THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE LEE SIDE TROUGHING
   OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
   GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
   WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NM/FAR WRN TX BY THE EVENING HOURS.  AHEAD OF
   THIS FEATURE...A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS WILL ADVECT NWWD INTO
   PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  W OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE NEAR THE
   PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF SWRN
   TX...STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY LOW RH WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...SWRN TX /BIG BEND AREA/...
   INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
   WILL LIKELY INHIBIT STRONG DAYTIME HEATING DUE IN PART TO WIDESPREAD
   CLOUD COVER.  HOWEVER...LATEST ENSEMBLE OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE
   MODERATELY STRONG SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS /20 MPH/ WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES /LOWER
   20S/ MAY OCCUR.  BUT WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
   60S...POTENTIAL FOR CRITICALLY LOW RH /15 PERCENT/ APPEARS LOW
   ATTM--PRECLUDING A CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ..SMITH.. 02/08/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 080941
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 AM CST SUN FEB 08 2009
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
   NEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS ANOTHER POTENT TROUGH DIGS SEWD
   OVER THE W COAST INTO THE DESERT SW.  IN BETWEEN THE TWO
   SYSTEMS...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE S-CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS STATES.  A BELT OF SEASONABLY STRONG FLOW FIELDS WILL EXTEND
   FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SWWD TO THE SWRN U.S.  AT THE SURFACE...A
   CYCLONE WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A TRAILING
   PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  AT LEAST
   BORDERLINE CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF THE
   S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY LOW RH.
   
   ...S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   STRONG WSWLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING WILL
   PROMOTE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. 
   MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR EXPECTED MAX TEMPS INDICATE RH MAY
   FALL AS LOW AS THE UPPER TEENS IN AREAS...WITH VALUES 20-25 MORE
   WIDESPREAD.  SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
   GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH IN AREAS.  MAIN COMPLICATING FACTOR APPEARS
   TO UNCERTAINTY CENTERED ON FUEL RESPONSE DUE TO D1 PRECIPITATION
   AMOUNTS.  AS A RESULT...NEXT UPDATE WILL RE-EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL
   FOR A CRITICAL AREA OVER A SIZABLE PORTION OF THE S-CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 02/08/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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