Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 090933
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0333 AM CST MON FEB 09 2009
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SRN KS...PARTS OF NRN OK
   AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
   ANOTHER POTENT TROUGH DIGS SEWD OVER CA INTO THE DESERT SW.  IN
   BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER
   THE S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE WILL
   MOVE NEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A TRAILING PRESSURE TROUGH
   EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY DUE TO STRONG WINDS OVER A SUBSTANTIAL
   PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.  HOWEVER...SEVERAL
   FACTORS WILL TEND TO LIMIT A GREATER THREAT SPATIALLY...INCLUDING
   THE FOLLOWING--1)APPRECIABLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24
   HRS...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF TX...AND 2)MARGINALLY LOW RH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF SRN KS...PARTS OF NRN OK AND
   THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS...MARGINALLY LOW RH
   
   MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONG WSWLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
   AND SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR...PROMOTING BOUNDARY LAYER
   MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.  A SUITE OF FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR EXPECTED MAX TEMPS INDICATE RH MAY FALL AS
   LOW AS THE UPPER TEENS IN AREAS...WITH VALUES NEAR 20 MORE
   WIDESPREAD.  DESPITE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL RH...SUSTAINED WINDS IN
   EXCESS OF 25-35 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH IN
   AREAS...WARRANTING A CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   VERY STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 MPH ARE PROBABLE ACROSS A LARGE
   PART OF THE REGION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER POTENTIAL FOR
   DEEPER MIXING TO OCCUR...LIMITING THE STRENGTH OF EXPECTED SUSTAINED
   WINDS /20-30 MPH/.  ENSEMBLE OUTPUT INDICATES RH WILL REMAIN AOA 20
   PERCENT...TEMPERING AN OTHERWISE GREATER THREAT. 
   LASTLY...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL DURING THE PREVIOUS 24 HRS WILL LIKELY
   SERVE AS A MITIGATING FACTOR PRECLUDING A GREATER FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.
   
   ..SMITH.. 02/09/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 090957
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CST MON FEB 09 2009
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SWRN AND CENTRAL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE DESERT SW TO THE SRN
   PLAINS BY THE END OF THE D2 PERIOD.  STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
   STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. 
   AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL DEEPEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE OK
   PANHANDLE WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD
   OVER PARTS OF TX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  ANTECEDENT LOW RH FROM
   THE PLATEAU REGION WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG WINDS...CREATING
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE PART OF SWRN AND
   CENTRAL TX.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF SWRN AND CENTRAL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
   
   WITH 100 KT MID LEVEL FLOW APPROACHING THE REGION...LATEST
   DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
   STRONG SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS /25-30 MPH/ WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
   MPH.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL AID IN
   PRODUCING STEEP LAPSE RATES...PROMOTING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
   OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.  RH VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED
   TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THE
   DRYLINE...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A SUITE OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS. 
   AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE W AND RH WILL
   BEGIN TO RECOVER.
   
   ..SMITH.. 02/09/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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