Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 120845
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN VA...ERN NC...FAR SRN MD...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THE MOST VIGOROUS OF WHICH OVER THE NORTHEAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY NOON...WITH ATTENDANT INTENSE SURFACE CYCLONE
TRACKING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
UPSTREAM IMPULSE OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL REACH THE NRN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY EVENING. FARTHER WEST...SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
CA WILL MOVE EWD TO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY FRI...WHILE A
LEAD IMPULSE EJECTS NEWD FROM NRN BAJA CA TO THE OZARK PLATEAU.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN VA...ERN NC...FAR SRN MD...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WLYS
WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WITH RELATIVELY DEEP VERTICAL MIXING GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH.
WITH WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND 18 TO 25 PERCENT. GIVEN
RECENT DRYNESS AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ON WED
EVENING...DRYING OF FINE FUELS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
CRITICAL THREAT.
...S-CNTRL NM AND FAR W TX...
SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER CA. WHAT WOULD TYPICALLY BE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A
CRITICAL THREAT SHOULD BE HINDERED BY THE EFFECTS OF A LEAD
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS
WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING POTENTIAL
FOR MORE ROBUST HEATING LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS WOULD AID DEEPER
MIXING WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BREACHING 20 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL LIKELY BE JUXTAPOSED WITH RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT...THE
OVERALL DURATION OF STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE MODEST ENOUGH TO NOT
WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA.
...EDWARDS PLATEAU/LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF TX...
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL SLYS AMIDST A DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING
TO BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD LARGELY
AVERAGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH.
..GRAMS.. 02/12/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 120945
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS LK MI THROUGH EARLY SAT. MODEST
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE SHOULD REACH THE OZARK
PLATEAU BY 14/00Z. ATTENDANT DRY LINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BE
DRAPED S/SWWD THROUGH ERN OK AND S-CNTRL TX...WHILE A SECONDARY
FRONTAL SURGE WILL ACCELERATE SWD INTO CNTRL OK AND THE TX
PANHANDLE.
...NWRN TX/SWRN OK...
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WLYS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT/DRY LINE SWEEPING EWD...BUT WILL SUBSIDE GREATLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN ADVANCE OF
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. STILL...AS BOUNDARY
LAYER DEPTH INCREASES THROUGH DIURNAL HEATING...A PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH SHOULD MATERIALIZE AND BE
COINCIDENT WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT.
OVERALL DURATION APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO NECESSITATE A CRITICAL AREA
DELINEATION ATTM.
..GRAMS.. 02/12/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...