Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 120845
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN VA...ERN NC...FAR SRN MD...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE
   SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THE MOST VIGOROUS OF WHICH OVER THE NORTHEAST
   WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY NOON...WITH ATTENDANT INTENSE SURFACE CYCLONE
   TRACKING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
   UPSTREAM IMPULSE OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL REACH THE NRN
   APPALACHIANS BY EARLY EVENING. FARTHER WEST...SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
   CA WILL MOVE EWD TO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY FRI...WHILE A
   LEAD IMPULSE EJECTS NEWD FROM NRN BAJA CA TO THE OZARK PLATEAU.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN VA...ERN NC...FAR SRN MD...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WLYS
   WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE
   FLOW WITH RELATIVELY DEEP VERTICAL MIXING GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH.
   WITH WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO
   LOWER 70S...RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND 18 TO 25 PERCENT. GIVEN
   RECENT DRYNESS AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ON WED
   EVENING...DRYING OF FINE FUELS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
   CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ...S-CNTRL NM AND FAR W TX...
   SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH OVER CA. WHAT WOULD TYPICALLY BE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A
   CRITICAL THREAT SHOULD BE HINDERED BY THE EFFECTS OF A LEAD
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS
   WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH INTO THE EARLY
   AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING POTENTIAL
   FOR MORE ROBUST HEATING LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS WOULD AID DEEPER
   MIXING WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BREACHING 20 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS
   WILL LIKELY BE JUXTAPOSED WITH RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT...THE
   OVERALL DURATION OF STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE MODEST ENOUGH TO NOT
   WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ...EDWARDS PLATEAU/LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF TX...
   MODERATE LOW-LEVEL SLYS AMIDST A DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. TEMPERATURES WARMING
   INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING
   TO BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD LARGELY
   AVERAGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/12/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 120945
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS
   SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS LK MI THROUGH EARLY SAT. MODEST
   SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE SHOULD REACH THE OZARK
   PLATEAU BY 14/00Z. ATTENDANT DRY LINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BE
   DRAPED S/SWWD THROUGH ERN OK AND S-CNTRL TX...WHILE A SECONDARY
   FRONTAL SURGE WILL ACCELERATE SWD INTO CNTRL OK AND THE TX
   PANHANDLE.
   
   ...NWRN TX/SWRN OK...
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL WLYS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A
   PACIFIC COLD FRONT/DRY LINE SWEEPING EWD...BUT WILL SUBSIDE GREATLY
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN ADVANCE OF
   A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. STILL...AS BOUNDARY
   LAYER DEPTH INCREASES THROUGH DIURNAL HEATING...A PERIOD OF
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH SHOULD MATERIALIZE AND BE
   COINCIDENT WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT.
   OVERALL DURATION APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO NECESSITATE A CRITICAL AREA
   DELINEATION ATTM.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/12/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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