Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 130737
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2009
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
   SHOULD DAMPEN AS IT SLIDES TOWARDS LK MI THROUGH EARLY SAT. MODEST
   SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE SHOULD REACH THE OZARK PLATEAU
   BY 14/00Z. ATTENDANT PACIFIC COLD FRONT/EFFECTIVE DRY LINE WILL BE
   DRAPED S/SWWD THROUGH ERN OK AND S-CNTRL TX...WHILE A SECONDARY
   FRONTAL SURGE WILL ACCELERATE SWD INTO SRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE
   IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...AN INTENSE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN
   ANCHORED ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
   
   ...NWRN TX/SWRN OK...
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W/NW THIS MORNING IN THE
   WAKE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD. HOWEVER...THEY WILL ABATE
   RAPIDLY TOWARDS NOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN ADVANCE OF
   A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. LATEST MODEL
   FORECASTS HAVE TRENDED EARLIER WITH THIS WEAKENING TENDENCY AND THIS
   WILL CURTAIL CRITICAL POTENTIAL DESPITE RH VALUES DROPPING TO 10 TO
   15 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. JUXTAPOSITION OF SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT SHOULD BE BRIEF.
   
   ...NC/SRN VA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO THU...BUT THE BROAD
   INFLUENCE OF AN INTENSE CYCLONE INVOF CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
   RESULT IN A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY. MODERATELY DEEP
   MIXING WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 15 MPH AT PEAK
   HEATING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
   /MAINLY IN THE 60S/...RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25
   PERCENT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/13/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 130843
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2009
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN NM...FAR WRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER-SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE
   WEST COAST WILL EJECT EWD...REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS SAT MORNING
   AND PROGRESSING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY EVENING. ATTENDANT
   MID-LEVEL JET STREAK SHOULD CROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AROUND 14/18Z. AT
   THE SURFACE...A SHARP DRY LINE SHOULD PUSH EWD INTO WRN TX SAT
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN NM...FAR WRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DRYNESS
   
   LOW/MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE DAY 1 INTO EARLY DAY 2 IN
   RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
   REGIME WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER SAT AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
   OF 20 TO 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY
   WARM /GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S/...A VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIR
   MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES OF 0.10 TO 0.15 INCHES/ WILL
   SUPPORT RH VALUES OF 8 TO 12 PERCENT. MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO
   VARY /ALBEIT INCREASINGLY MORE SUBTLE/ WITH THE TIMING OF THE
   UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE AND THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PLACEMENT OF
   THE DRY LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE EXPANDED THE
   CRITICAL AREA E/NEWD IN FAVOR OF THE SLIGHTLY FASTER 13/00Z
   ECMWF/GFS COMPARED TO THE SLOWER NAM.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/13/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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