Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 200753
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0153 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2009
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF FL...AL...GA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM...NWRN/N CNTRL TX...WRN
   OK...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT NEWD OUT OF NEW ENGLAND. THE MAIN
   TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH THE ERN STATES...WILL MOVE
   OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   MEANWHILE...A COOL AND DRY CONTINENTAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
   SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
   OFFSHORE OF SRN FL BY THE MORNING...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
   TO SLIDE EWD...BECOMING STATIONED ROUGHLY OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THE
   END OF THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH RHS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. 
   
   MEANWHILE FARTHER W...AN UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY DIVE SEWD INTO THE
   NRN THEN CNTRL PLAINS BEFORE MOVING EWD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES LATE
   IN THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM INVOF
   SERN CO WHILE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS TO
   THE N OF THIS. SWLY TO SLY WINDS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
   WILL ALIGN WITH LOW RHS ACROSS ERN NM...NWRN/N CNTRL TX...AND WRN
   OK. FARTHER E ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN OK...ERN TX...AND AR WINDS
   WILL BE STRONG AS WELL...ALTHOUGH RHS IN GENERAL WILL BE HIGHER.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF FL...AL...GA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH
   
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EWD THROUGH THE
   DAY...BECOMING CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE
   PERIOD. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH
   SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 10 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWAT ANALYSIS AND
   SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE REFLECTIVE OF A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND RHS WILL
   DROP TO EXTREMELY LOW VALUES ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA FOR EXTENDED
   HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. VALUES IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
   INLAND AL/GA...UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN
   FL...CNTRL FL WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S...AND LOWER 30S WILL BE
   LIKELY IN SRN FL. AREAS SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL WILL BE VERY DRY AS
   WELL...ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY HELP TO MITIGATE THE THREAT.
   GIVEN ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE SOUTH...AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN NM...NWRN/N CNTRL TX...AND WRN
   OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
   
   A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP INVOF SERN CO AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER
   SHORT WAVE DIVING SEWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. IN
   RESPONSE AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
   SERN STATES...STRONG SLY TO SWLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN
   PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
   LIKELY. THE RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS LEFT VERY LITTLE
   MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH IN ITS WAKE...AND EVEN A SHIFT IN THE
   WINDS TO SLY/SWLY WILL ALLOW LITTLE MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
   EXPECT RHS TO GENERALLY DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
   CRITICAL AREA. AREAS SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL WILL EXPERIENCE
   MARGINAL RHS...ALTHOUGH GIVEN STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL
   DROUGHT...A HEIGHTENED FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 02/20/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 200826
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2009
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
   GRADUALLY BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS A JET AXIS DIGS AROUND THE BACKSIDE.
   THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS LATE IN THE
   PERIOD...WITH DRY CONTINENTAL FLOW CONTINUING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
   STATES. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN
   STATES AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPIN OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST COAST.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SWD INTO THE CNTRL
   AND SRN PLAINS DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN GULF BY THE END OF
   THE PERIOD. COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH
   A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/TX. MEANWHILE...SLY TO
   SELY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
   THE OPEN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
   WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN...AND ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RHS WILL BE
   WIDESPREAD.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF OK/TX...
   MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
   A COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING...WITH
   SUSTAINED NLY WINDS NEAR 25 TO 30 MPH...ALTHOUGH ALIGNED WITH HIGHER
   RHS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS RHS
   FALL. BY THE TIME RHS FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S...WINDS WILL
   GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 MPH. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS WHERE
   LOW RH/STRONG WINDS OVERLAP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE
   FIRE THREAT.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   SLY/SELY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
   INTO THE ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
   WARM A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO DAY 1...ALTHOUGH RHS WILL STILL DROP
   INTO THE 20S ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA. AREAS ALONG EAST COAST...AND
   ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE OF FL WILL EXPERIENCE RH
   IMPROVEMENT AND SHOULD NOT FALL TO CRITICAL VALUES. WINDS IN GENERAL
   WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 02/20/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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