Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 210833
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0233 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2009
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY LOCATED OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY
   REGION...WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION
   DURING THE D1 PERIOD. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NORTHEAST WITH
   THE UPPER TROUGH...A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS
   THE PLAINS AND END UP OFFSHORE OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO BY
   00Z/22. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
   FRONT...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE TX/OK BORDER BY SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SERN CONUS...AN AXIS OF
   WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST. ONSHORE FLOW
   WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT...ALLOWING SURFACE DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES TO
   SLOWLY RECOVER THROUGH THE DAY.
   
   ...NCENTRAL AND WRN TX...
   STRONG/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NCENTRAL AND WRN TX
   DURING THE MORNING BEHIND A SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
   HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN BY MID AFTERNOON AS
   HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER. AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S...RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO
   THE MID TO UPPER TEENS GIVEN SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS REMAINING OVER
   THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
   WHEN LOW RH VALUES OVERLAP WITH MARGINALLY CRITICAL WINDS...BUT THIS
   WILL BE TOO BRIEF TO ASSIGN AN OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   THE CURRENT AIRMASS OVER THE SERN STATES IS VERY DRY...CHARACTERIZED
   BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE TEENS OVER GA/SC INTO THE 20S
   OVER PORTIONS OF NRN FL. THIS WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON RH VALUES
   FALLING THROUGH THE 20S. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
   LIGHT /GENERALLY AOB 10 MPH/ AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS
   AWAY FROM THE REGION. THUS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
   NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..GARNER.. 02/21/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 210835
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2009
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VERTICALLY STACKED...OCCLUDED LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
   BE SITUATED OVER LAKE HURON BY 12Z/D2. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND EMERGE
   OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z/23. AS THIS OCCURS...SECONDARY
   CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR...WITH A SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT
   ACCELERATING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. BREEZY WINDS MAY DEVELOP
   BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT OVER THE SERN STATES...WITH DRY
   CONTINENTAL FLOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION.
   
   FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
   ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT/WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
   STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE...WITH WARM
   TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH VALUES SPREADING EAST INTO WRN TX AND THE
   PANHANDLE.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NERN NM/WRN TX
   PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON OF SUN/D2. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
   LOW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
   SUSTAINED WINDS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS. IN
   ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S WHILE DEWPOINTS
   REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...RESULTING IN CRITICALLY LOW
   RH VALUES. AN UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED FROM AZ/NM NORTH INTO
   MT DURING MUCH OF THE DAY...RESULTING IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY PREVENT DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING FROM
   DEVELOPING...AS WELL AS A STRONGER SURFACE CYCLONE. DESPITE THESE
   NEGATIVE FACTORS...A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA MAY BE WARRANTED DURING
   THE NEXT FORECAST IF SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...DRY CONTINENTAL FLOW
   ORIGINATING FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
   PLAINS...WILL FAVOR RH VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...DUE TO THE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...THE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SERN STATES DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT
   SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH. AS A RESULT...A CRITICAL OUTLOOK WILL
   NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..GARNER.. 02/21/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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