Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 220849
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2009
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME ECENTRAL
   NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND WRN OK...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
   SC AND GA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPR AIR OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A CLOSED
   MID LEVEL LOW MOVING NE ACROSS LK HURON...WITH A TROUGH AXIS
   EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO THE SERN CONUS. AHEAD OF THE
   TROUGH...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE OFF THE
   COAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST
   ACROSS SC AND GA...AND THEN OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. DRY
   CONTINENTAL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE SERN STATES BEHIND THE
   FRONT...ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS...RESULTING IN
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   MEANWHILE...AN UPR LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE W COAST WILL BEGIN
   TO BREAK DOWN A RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE WRN CONUS. AS THIS
   OCCURS...MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WILL SPILL EAST ACROSS
   THE RIDGE AXIS AND SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A
   WEAK LEE TROUGH/SURFACE CYCLONE WILL FORM AS A RESULT...WITH S-SW
   SURFACE WINDS STRENGTHENING OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF EXTREME ECENTRAL
   NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND WRN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE DROUGHT...LOW RH...WINDS
   
   EVENING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
   DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
   AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS AS TEMPERATURES WARM
   INTO THE 60S. AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS...AND SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS
   OVER SERN CO...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SUSTAINED
   SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH /WITH
   LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS/ DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH QUESTIONS REMAIN
   REGARDING THE EXACT DURATION OF CRITICAL WINDS...THE PROBABILITY OF
   DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEARS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE
   AN OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SC
   AND GA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: WINDS...LOW RH...PROLONGED DRYNESS
   
   A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF SC/GA BY
   18Z/SUN. SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ITS
   WAKE...WITH RAPID DRYING /EVIDENT BY LOW DEWPOINT AIRMASS LOCATED
   UPSTREAM OF THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT/ EXPECTED...OCCURRING IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S. THIS
   WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S. WHEN COMBINED
   WITH THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
   RAINFALL...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
   
   ...AREAS SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL OVER SC AND GA...
   LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE SC/GA CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA ARE
   EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
   FRONT. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A
   CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA. FARTHER SOUTH OVER SRN GA INTO NRN
   FL...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE MARGINAL...THOUGH THE
   DRY AIRMASS WILL STILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 02/22/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 220850
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2009
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPR LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
   OUT OF NEW ENGLAND DURING D2/MON...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING
   CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST...AND A LEE TROUGH REMAINING ALONG THE
   HIGH PLAINS. A DRY AIRMASS EMANATING SOUTH FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE
   CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SERN CONUS...WHILE WARM
   WESTERLIES DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   WITH A DRY CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION MAINTAINING LOW DEWPOINTS
   ACROSS THE REGION...RH VALUES IN THE 20S ARE LIKELY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON OF MON/D2. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
   RESULT IN MARGINAL SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS. THIS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY
   COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ...ERN CO AND NM...
   AN UPR LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN FURTHER ON MON/D2...WITH
   MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLIES REMAINING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
   MAINTAIN A LEE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL-SRN HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS
   FAVORING SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS. MODEL GUIDANCE
   INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERLAP BETWEEN WARM
   TEMPERATURES...LOW RH...AND SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 20 MPH...WHICH MAY
   REQUIRE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA IN THE NEXT FORECAST.
   
   ..GARNER.. 02/22/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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